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Let's wait & see what the inflation numbers and projections look like.

My money is on rates remaining in the range 4.5% - 5.5% for 12 months at least.

I wouldn't rule out a 0.25% reduction at some stage but it's also possible there are further increases on the cards dependant on forex movements and inflation.

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expect it to go down a quarter next month for about two months then back up to 4.75%

any other thoughts?

seriously?

no chance.

that allows no time to see the effect on the economy.

the lag time from an interest rate change can be anything from 3 months out to 18 months.

they will hold until they can see clearly what is going on.

inflation pipeline pressures versus slowing demand(consumer)/gdp growth then throw in a weakness in currency to muddle it even more. thats what it boils down to right now

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David Hillier @ Barclays Capital thinks the next move is up. Just said so on News 24

Barclays Capital have been predicting higher rates fro some time now. it's a pride thing. Mr Hillier and co. have got it wrong it would seem and they might as well stick to their guns in the unlikely event we see a change in sentiment. better than changing your mind every month.

it's classic economist behaviour. it's us traders that need to get it right.

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seriously?

no chance.

that allows no time to see the effect on the economy.

the lag time from an interest rate change can be anything from 3 months out to 18 months.

they will hold until they can see clearly what is going on.

inflation pipeline pressures versus slowing demand(consumer)/gdp growth then throw in a weakness in currency to muddle it even more. thats what it boils down to right now

the interest rate is a Psychological tool at the moment which powers the way we buy and therefore look at the housing market because of its effect on mortgages. more and more awareness of the issues surronunding the MPC has caused this.

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I reckon they're shit-scared to change it, up or down, in case it triggers anything, either a house price crash or any other economic woes.

'Best to keep it the same, then people won't notice that we're here.'

I think that there's a a lot of cost push inflation to come from the increase in commodity prices generally. In my business, it is only now that increased costs are really beginning to bite. For example, a 3 year electricity price deal expired last month - now paying 25-35% more depending on meter involved. Also had been purchasing cost items forward - now up to a third more.

Will these extra costs be absorbed by business as they have been for a while, or will be passed on? My money's on the latter (what little I have left of it after paying these crazy prices). ;)

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I reckon they will be held where they are for the moment and then another rise. I suspect we're seeing more of a soft patch at the moment and I also expect inflationary pressure to start mounting again. Also, I reckon the BoE will be dreading the prospect of dropping IRs simply because of the huge mess it has created in the first place.

All IMO of course!

:D

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They are quoted as being happy with a stable housing market.

They don't want to decrease (despite manufacturing and retail

calling for it) because it will trigger more household debt.

They want to increase, but can't, because it will drive us

further into recession.

They are trapped, at the moment.

Their brief, however, is to keep inflation less than 2%.

If that starts to be in the frame, they MUST increase

interest rates.

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I think the BOE are well aware that moving the rates down to a 50 year low to avoid recession has well and truly opened Pandora's box.

We avoided recession but now we have £1.1 trillion of debt.

I think rates down is wishful thinking from the bulls - in the desperate hope it will prevent the crash. Rates steady for a long time is my bet - until we have to raise again to maintain our relationship with the dollar. About a year away I would say - when US base rates hit 3.75% we will have to move to 5% to protect the £.

Looking back the rates down to 3.5% will be seen as the biggest mistake of all time. We avoided what would have been a small and manageable recession then - only to face a massive one now. All that happened is that the inevitable has been delayed and magnified.

Our economy is basically stuffed. Manufacturing jobs have already gone abroad - service sector jobs are now following and we've been sitting here in a fool's paradise consuming and consuming funded by equity withdrawal.

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We avoided recession but now we have £1.1 trillion of debt.

Probably the best quote ive heard that sums it all up! Its so true we have avioded what we should of taken in the first place then the economy could be cleansed and move on upwards to the next cycle..... but we havent and tried to avoid it- trouble is you cant really stop the ecomony just delay it and this case the longer the delay the worse itll be.... thats what i think anyway

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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