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Halifax House Prices: -2.3% Mom, -17.7% Yoy


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Well, it depends on on measure of income they are using, doesn't it? I believe they use the average full time male salary, which is considerably more than the the widely quoted 23-24k.

Yes, it's still too high, but if they are measuring my one income statistic then you have to be fair and use the same statistic. House prices are back to 2004 levels - if houses were affordable in 2004, then they are affordable today.

They were afforbale because of easy credit - high income multiples/small or no deposit those conditions do not exist today hence they are not affordable at 2004 prices.

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And yet.....

The local weekly rag came today. A lot of the house prices still look to be at 2007 levels. The noticeable drops seem to be at the lower end of the market, where the 100K floor on local prices has been well and truly breached.

Some of the EAs and surveyors who post on this site are reporting completions at 25% - 30% below asking price though.

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A remarkably short report from the BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7925481.stm

Are we getting to the stage where it is so painful that people bury their heads further into the sand and just don't want to know about it?

Where's the graph?

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So - the average price is 165K

Average wage is 20k.

Ratio of 3x (banks are gonna get very conservative) = 60k for a 'good house'.

Good Houses have over 100k to fall yet, and that's excluding the credit crunch, recession, coming depression.

As for the new builds, well, how low is low?

If anyone thinks this is anything but the beginning of the beginning, they're rather optimistic.

where abouts do you live?

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Agreed. But now we have lept from trashing halifax to believing halifax, not believe the NSA or believing the NSA. To keep some credability and to try and forecast the bottom we need some consitancy. Hence, we need to take all data from all sources and find the mean trend to predict the future as best we can.

I want to know this information to try and make an informed decision rather than one based on hysteria.

Agreed. One month's figure from one source is pretty meaningless. 3 months' worth of data from several sources is much, much more meaningful.

It's clear that all indices are showing that the trend is very firmly down. You can argue about if it was 1% or 2% from such and such a source, but prices are falling and that's really all we need to know.

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i really must think about getting a job in halifax or wherever it is they do their surveys... according to them pay just keeps steamrollering ever upwards... a 0.6% increase last month according to them, that's 6.9% annual... BOOMTIME. or something.

affordability ratio based on full time male earnings.. which on average are 6k higher than 'all' Gov stats

and understandable since women apparently don't buy houses..

has it always been male earnings??

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I see what you mean, although yearly it does seem correct.

Average salary according to Halifax:

Feb08 = £35,063.50

Jan09 = £36,071.65

Feb09 = £36,273.08

+ 0.56% MoM

+ 3.45% YoY

Where the hell did they get this data from???? Central London??

£36k, they must be joking.

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They were afforbale because of easy credit - high income multiples/small or no deposit those conditions do not exist today hence they are not affordable at 2004 prices.

Yes, agreed.

In 2004, you could easily get 100% mortgage and interest only mortgage.

Not so today.

For a good rate you need 40% deposit.

Difficult to get 90% mortage.

And interest only is frowned on, without a GENUINE means of paying back the money.

No, 2004 prices are definitely not affordable today.

Prices need to retreat to something like 2001 levels to be affordable.

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I see what you mean, although yearly it does seem correct.

Average salary according to Halifax:

Feb08 = £35,063.50

Jan09 = £36,071.65

Feb09 = £36,273.08

+ 0.56% MoM

+ 3.45% YoY

That must be household income not average salary - very few folk where I live would earn more than £35,000

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The spring bounce has turned out to be a spring splat

Spring is sprung,

the grass is ris,

I wonder where,

the house sales is.

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Agreed. But now we have lept from trashing halifax to believing halifax, not believe the NSA or believing the NSA. To keep some credability and to try and forecast the bottom we need some consitancy. Hence, we need to take all data from all sources and find the mean trend to predict the future as best we can.

I want to know this information to try and make an informed decision rather than one based on hysteria.

Absolutely! We need to be consistent. I keep track of the major data sources and put them together on a graph. To avoid doubts about the bank's SA methods I use my own SA calculation, but generally I don't have a problem with the banks' SA data.

Forecasting the bottom is a tricky business. The last trough was very flat, so difficult to predict when the turnaround was going to happen. Mortgage approvals numbers are a good predictor up to 6 months ahead - any further ahead is difficult. Anyway, I'm not looking for the absolute bottom. I will start serious house-hunting when affordability returns to sane levels (3-4 times average income), falls in price are sufficiently small for other considerations to outweigh them, and when mortgage approvals return to normal.

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Quantitative easing? :lol:

it's overrated. Bernanke has been doing this at 'heroic' levels since Q4 2008.

Wherever the BoE will take it to, it'll be like bailing out the titanic with a thimble. Expect them to go back

to the chancellor to extend beyond the current upto figure as they flail around hopelessly.

Cetainly the bulls are counting on everything kicking in in April, but april is like next month and there have been few signs of any change in the credit situation or sentiment.

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They based their calculations on stated income (2007 mortgage applications) :lol:

Interestingly though I was trying to understand what demand there is for housing (having asked on here and not got any answers).

There is 2.4 million people in the UK aged between 28-30 (typical FTB age), assuming you take the top 20% earners that would create demand of 480,000 potential buyers..........could it not be the case that its the higher earners who are buying?

Also, I was trying to understand how much money needs to be offered through the mortgage market to support an equilibrium. If you assume that 480,000 people need mortgages of £140,000 then the market would need £67 bln to support it.

Please, any constructive critism it greatly appreciated..............

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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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