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Halifax House Prices: -2.3% Mom, -17.7% Yoy


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so, taking a 20% drop on a £200,000 house gives... a £40,000 loss.

Or, over the lifetime of a mortgage, that's an extra £80,000 (or thereabouts) you're paying, which is an extra £266 per month, every monthy, for 25 years... and all because you wanted that house a year or so ago, instead of waiting until now.

Just think, if it carries on at this rate, next year you'll be paying an extra £500 per month, every month, than someone who buys in a years time.

Renting is so much worse than buying, eh? :lol:

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Yeah but at 160K the average price STILL somewhere in the region of seven times average salary - maybe more - even after 18% fall.

Still way overvalued and not at all affordable for a single person.

Even the Nationwide figure still more than six times average salary.

Long way to go yet.

35% off peak? That's 'aspirational' now. Simply a best case scenario for vendors I reckon.

Nice to feel 100+ pounds a day better off though, which as a buyer in waiting is how I feel.

that is the key. Perhaps you'll see estate agents going across the channel to advertise "bargains" to people with Euros. Shame the quality of builds in the UK is awful if compared to pretty much anywhere and prices are still way too high...

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Yeah but at 160K the average price STILL somewhere in the region of seven times average salary - maybe more - even after 18% fall.

Well, it depends on on measure of income they are using, doesn't it? I believe they use the average full time male salary, which is considerably more than the the widely quoted 23-24k.

Yes, it's still too high, but if they are measuring my one income statistic then you have to be fair and use the same statistic. House prices are back to 2004 levels - if houses were affordable in 2004, then they are affordable today.

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Wow, I wonder what Estate Agents are going to put on their windows tomorrow?

"SPRING SALE - 2.3% OFF!! EVERYTHING MUST SELL.... PLEASE? FOR GOD SAKE BUY A HOUSE FROM ME I'VE COMPLETED EVERY LEVEL ON MINESWEEPER AND I CAN'T WORK OUT HOW TO PLAY SPIDER SOLITAIRE."

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Well, it depends on on measure of income they are using, doesn't it? I believe they use the average full time male salary, which is considerably more than the the widely quoted 23-24k.

Yes, it's still too high, but if they are measuring my one income statistic then you have to be fair and use the same statistic. House prices are back to 2004 levels - if houses were affordable in 2004, then they are affordable today.

It's not the same statistic as the measurement changed around 2006 IIRC

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Looking at the NSA figures, here are the true house price inflation figures from October 08 to Feb 09

Oct -2.995096625

Nov -3.157744502

Dec -2.708660837

Jan 0.871639832

Feb -0.381684166

SA (for the same months)

167,934

163,458

160,861

164,126

160,327

NSA

168,158

162,848

158,437

159,818

159,208

A true fall in november of over 3%!!!!! So how is this reported as one of the biggest falls when the NSA figure is only a fall of 0.4%? They have rounded those january figures up to make them look more impressive. I mean, how did the seasonally adjust a rise of 1.4k to 4.2k???

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Personally I think that with volumes of sales so very low its highly likely that these numbers a pretty useless for any practical purpose... Halifax and nationwide admit openly that their regional numbers shouldn't be relied on in any way and I suspect he national numbers are not reilient either as the sample size is too low..... its all we have to go on sure, but does this mean your own house or prospective house has fallen by this much or anything like... I doubt it... depending on where you are and what you want the figures could be better or worse by I suspect quite a wide margin.

Anyway there we are , thats all we have got so it'll have to do for now..... the direction though I suspect is broadly right... downwards at crash speed.

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so last month we didn't believe in Halifax numbers but this month we do?

I think we should look at all the data available and start taking a bit more of a rounded view.

I wrote Halifax off last month because I thought 'its one of Browns banks'.........Perhaps it would be useful for somebody to collate all the information from all sources and see if we can find a mean trend line between these various sources.

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so last month we didn't believe in Halifax numbers but this month we do?

I think we should look at all the data available and start taking a bit more of a rounded view.

I wrote Halifax off last month because I thought 'its one of Browns banks'.........Perhaps it would be useful for somebody to collate all the information from all sources and see if we can find a mean trend line between these various sources.

All the data sources will have random noise in them. All that's needed is to look at the trend, rather than one month in isolation.

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And yet.....

The local weekly rag came today. A lot of the house prices still look to be at 2007 levels. The noticeable drops seem to be at the lower end of the market, where the 100K floor on local prices has been well and truly breached.

Perhaps last month's rise was caused by a bigger proportion of larger houses being sold - which could mean that this month's figures indicate more smaller houses sold. Although the trend still looks downwards.

Edited by blankster
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So - the average price is 165K

Average wage is 20k.

Ratio of 3x (banks are gonna get very conservative) = 60k for a 'good house'.

Good Houses have over 100k to fall yet, and that's excluding the credit crunch, recession, coming depression.

As for the new builds, well, how low is low?

If anyone thinks this is anything but the beginning of the beginning, they're rather optimistic.

Edited by renterbob
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i really must think about getting a job in halifax or wherever it is they do their surveys... according to them pay just keeps steamrollering ever upwards... a 0.6% increase last month according to them, that's 6.9% annual... BOOMTIME. or something.

I see what you mean, although yearly it does seem correct.

Average salary according to Halifax:

Feb08 = £35,063.50

Jan09 = £36,071.65

Feb09 = £36,273.08

+ 0.56% MoM

+ 3.45% YoY

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All the data sources will have random noise in them. All that's needed is to look at the trend, rather than one month in isolation.

Agreed. But now we have lept from trashing halifax to believing halifax, not believe the NSA or believing the NSA. To keep some credability and to try and forecast the bottom we need some consitancy. Hence, we need to take all data from all sources and find the mean trend to predict the future as best we can.

I want to know this information to try and make an informed decision rather than one based on hysteria.

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  • 439 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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