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Prediction On When We Will Exceed 3,000 Lets On Citylets


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Anyone noticed that the number of properties to let on CityLets has taken off.

I predict we will exceed 3,000 lets in Edinburgh on:

April 17th at 2 pm GMT

All these 'accidental landlords' who rent their place out rather than sell at a low price:

where are they actually living?

Do you think that most have bought elsewhere and so have effectively moved a house from the OO sector to the rental sector?

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:lol:

It's like HPC is a karaoke bar, and you walk in, and someone is singing CCC's song. But it's not CCC!

Feel free to sing my song !! The more the merrier. ;)

Getting back to the subject I have actually noticed loads of new ones shooting up down where I work in Edinburgh. It is almost as if they expect some sort of Spring Bounce for rentals ?!

Maybe they should have a look at the sheer number out there before getting too excited.

I give it 6 months before the average 2 bedder in Edinburgh is between 5-600 rather than 6-700 we haev known for a good few years.

That must be some psychological barrier for BTL'ers ?

Same thing happening in other areas of Scotland ?

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2434 Now!

Up Up and Away....

I may have to change my prediction...

There are more to let signs around the city than for sale signs, be warned this could create a shortage of properties for sale, it could also lead to a culture of people getting into the habbit of renting, no interest in buying.

This is not good as pro landlords will buy and increase there portfolios, in time forcing up rents by means of a cartell, which could lead to ramping as they trade to each other.

This is a strong possibility IMO. :angry:

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There are more to let signs around the city than for sale signs, be warned this could create a shortage of properties for sale, it could also lead to a culture of people getting into the habbit of renting, no interest in buying.

This is not good as pro landlords will buy and increase there portfolios, in time forcing up rents by means of a cartell, which could lead to ramping as they trade to each other.

This is a strong possibility IMO. :angry:

Maybe but I would be surprised. The first step in the coming crash will be a crash in rents. I am looking at a place to rent and I cannot believe the great supply - houses to rent for asking 2000 on the best street in edinburgh- madness...

Now I may be tempted to buy when the rental yields approach 8% but the rental value in edinburgh is amazing and will only get better....

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There are more to let signs around the city than for sale signs, be warned this could create a shortage of properties for sale, it could also lead to a culture of people getting into the habbit of renting, no interest in buying.

This is not good as pro landlords will buy and increase there portfolios, in time forcing up rents by means of a cartell, which could lead to ramping as they trade to each other.

This is a strong possibility IMO. :angry:

So there are too many places for rent. So landlords buy them up. They start to force up rents.... :blink:

I think the opposite is likely. Rents are coming down, as are sales prices.

Whether a house is put up for rent or for sale the net result is the same. Either more for rent or more for sale. Both prices are falling at present.

I think you give professional landlords too much credit. If they really knew the score they would have sold up in 2007, pocketed the profit, and retired to a mansion in the Bahamas. I imagine a couple did just that. I imagine the majority are sitting just now wishing they had done just that.

Once the oversupply of rentals is taken up will be the only time they can rise. I can't see that happening for a good few years. People will move in with friends, share, move back with parents - you name it.

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So there are too many places for rent. So landlords buy them up. They start to force up rents.... :blink:

I think the opposite is likely. Rents are coming down, as are sales prices.

Whether a house is put up for rent or for sale the net result is the same. Either more for rent or more for sale. Both prices are falling at present.

I think you give professional landlords too much credit. If they really knew the score they would have sold up in 2007, pocketed the profit, and retired to a mansion in the Bahamas. I imagine a couple did just that. I imagine the majority are sitting just now wishing they had done just that.

Once the oversupply of rentals is taken up will be the only time they can rise. I can't see that happening for a good few years. People will move in with friends, share, move back with parents - you name it.

Fair points you raise, there are loads of properties to let right now, you can see that by just driving around the city, to let boards on almost every street, and hardly any for sale boards, the last stats i recall from the ESPC, Stated there were over a thousand properties less for sale in January than in the same period in Jan 08.

I Think you are right a lot of sellers have given up and are trying to rent, it boggles the mind where they go to stay though ?

Anyway i can confirm that the new Orchard Shipman scheme starts at the end of April, funded by the EDC, Thay will take in another 2000 properties from the private sector to house council tennants, they are guaranteeing the rents, initial feedback is you get 500 for a one bed , and 625 for a 2 bed.

I Suspect this may have an adverse affect on how many properties are to let, as private landlords and desperate ex sellers, who are struggling to rent now, may jump into bed with the EDC on this one.

My prediction over the next few months is the amount of propertieson edlets list will reduce to under 1000.

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Fair points you raise, there are loads of properties to let right now, you can see that by just driving around the city, to let boards on almost every street, and hardly any for sale boards, the last stats i recall from the ESPC, Stated there were over a thousand properties less for sale in January than in the same period in Jan 08.

I Think you are right a lot of sellers have given up and are trying to rent, it boggles the mind where they go to stay though ?

Anyway i can confirm that the new Orchard Shipman scheme starts at the end of April, funded by the EDC, Thay will take in another 2000 properties from the private sector to house council tennants, they are guaranteeing the rents, initial feedback is you get 500 for a one bed , and 625 for a 2 bed.

I Suspect this may have an adverse affect on how many properties are to let, as private landlords and desperate ex sellers, who are struggling to rent now, may jump into bed with the EDC on this one.

My prediction over the next few months is the amount of propertieson edlets list will reduce to under 1000.

And where are these people livign just now !! The end net result is the same.

As for the for sale numbers ? True - many less than this time last year. However this time last year was extreme. I imagine the numbers for sale this year are pretty normal for the average year.

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And where are these people livign just now !! The end net result is the same.

As for the for sale numbers ? True - many less than this time last year. However this time last year was extreme. I imagine the numbers for sale this year are pretty normal for the average year.

A Lot are in Bed and Breakfast, which is costing the council a fortune, hence the new private rental sector scheme, they are currently paying up to 50 pounds per night, so they reckon paying 500 for a one bed flat saves them money.

The pilot scheme will take in 2000 properties initially, but could take in a lot more if the scheme is sucsessful, with more jobless, and repos, more people are joining the already enormous list.

Broon and darling have commited to finding homes for all homless by 2012, hence the extra money for this scheme. I Have researched this in detail, i was hoping it would be moffballed ( ala D.J. ) But no it is going ahead in April, alongside a seperate scheme to buy up reppos, for housing stock.

Im just not sure what effect ( if any ) these schemes will have on the rental, and sales market in Edinburgh, it can only be bad though, as it will reduce rental numbers, and may actually encourage investors to buy again.

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This scheme will be another boost to HPD. Sadly the old couple 2 doors up from me died. Daughter inherited, couldn't sell, had hassle renting privately so put the hoose on this scheme.

We are now the 'proud' owners of an appalling set of urban peasants as neighbours. She actually asked the old lady that lives between us if she could hang her washing on the old lady's line because the grass was too long in her own garden to get to the washing line! The thought of actually getting the mower out hadn't and wouldn't have entered her head.

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A Lot are in Bed and Breakfast, which is costing the council a fortune, hence the new private rental sector scheme, they are currently paying up to 50 pounds per night, so they reckon paying 500 for a one bed flat saves them money.

The pilot scheme will take in 2000 properties initially, but could take in a lot more if the scheme is sucsessful, with more jobless, and repos, more people are joining the already enormous list.

Broon and darling have commited to finding homes for all homless by 2012, hence the extra money for this scheme. I Have researched this in detail, i was hoping it would be moffballed ( ala D.J. ) But no it is going ahead in April, alongside a seperate scheme to buy up reppos, for housing stock.

Im just not sure what effect ( if any ) these schemes will have on the rental, and sales market in Edinburgh, it can only be bad though, as it will reduce rental numbers, and may actually encourage investors to buy again.

Thanks for the example Radge, just what I was going to point out !!

So lets say you have a nice block of flats in town. 4 or 5 can't sell or rent so they let out to the council. What will this do to the sale value of the other flats in the block ? It is not going to help them out for sure !!

As you say this could also be bad news for the B & B business. What are most B & B' s produced from ? Wes - you guessed it - family homes. So many of these may go out of business and be put up for sale, as the house is too large for the owners and they cannot get the extra boost of council tenants money.

All in all the net effect will be the same. If there is an oversupply of overpriced properties in Edinburgh today ? There will be the same tomorrow and next year. The only change will be the proportion split between rentals and sales.

The only thing that will solve this is prices falling. For both rents and sales. Both are happening at present.

Something I said on JKB about 2 years ago and got laughed at for. ;)

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Thanks for the example Radge, just what I was going to point out !!

So lets say you have a nice block of flats in town. 4 or 5 can't sell or rent so they let out to the council. What will this do to the sale value of the other flats in the block ? It is not going to help them out for sure !!

As you say this could also be bad news for the B & B business. What are most B & B' s produced from ? Wes - you guessed it - family homes. So many of these may go out of business and be put up for sale, as the house is too large for the owners and they cannot get the extra boost of council tenants money.

All in all the net effect will be the same. If there is an oversupply of overpriced properties in Edinburgh today ? There will be the same tomorrow and next year. The only change will be the proportion split between rentals and sales.

The only thing that will solve this is prices falling. For both rents and sales. Both are happening at present.

Something I said on JKB about 2 years ago and got laughed at for. ;)

On the jkb thing, i am back in now, must have been a short term ban or something, anyway sadly you and the previous poster are correct, the quality of tenant that will be put into these properties could be bad.

The only thing in the schemes favour is the fact that only one property per tenament block, or street is allowed, spreading them far and wide over the city.

In terms of rent at 500 a pop, you can by a one bed now for around the 60k mark, i got offered one in dalgety street last week for 58k, which i turned down, it has now sold though. ( should appear on espc stats site soon )

What i am saying is stick that property on a 3 year fixed rate deal of around 3.5%, stick in 25% deposit, and you make a tasty return, so as you are getting no interest from the bank, these sort of deals could appeal to people who have 20k in the bank right now.

Read the last paragraph of the article attached which backs this up.

http://www.hip-consultant.co.uk/blog/will-...ro-percent-123/

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There are more to let signs around the city than for sale signs, be warned this could create a shortage of properties for sale, it could also lead to a culture of people getting into the habbit of renting, no interest in buying.

This is not good as pro landlords will buy and increase there portfolios, in time forcing up rents by means of a cartell, which could lead to ramping as they trade to each other.

What i am saying is stick that property on a 3 year fixed rate deal of around 3.5%, stick in 25% deposit, and you make a tasty return, so as you are getting no interest from the bank, these sort of deals could appeal to people who have 20k in the bank right now.

You and I look at things very differently!

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On the jkb thing, i am back in now, must have been a short term ban or something, anyway sadly you and the previous poster are correct, the quality of tenant that will be put into these properties could be bad.

The only thing in the schemes favour is the fact that only one property per tenament block, or street is allowed, spreading them far and wide over the city.

In terms of rent at 500 a pop, you can by a one bed now for around the 60k mark, i got offered one in dalgety street last week for 58k, which i turned down, it has now sold though. ( should appear on espc stats site soon )

What i am saying is stick that property on a 3 year fixed rate deal of around 3.5%, stick in 25% deposit, and you make a tasty return, so as you are getting no interest from the bank, these sort of deals could appeal to people who have 20k in the bank right now.

Read the last paragraph of the article attached which backs this up.

http://www.hip-consultant.co.uk/blog/will-...ro-percent-123/

Most deals I see for BTL are more like 5-6%.

I would rather have 20k in the bank than invest it in something dropping in value.

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There are more to let signs around the city than for sale signs, be warned this could create a shortage of properties for sale, it could also lead to a culture of people getting into the habbit of renting, no interest in buying.

This is not good as pro landlords will buy and increase there portfolios, in time forcing up rents by means of a cartell, which could lead to ramping as they trade to each other.

This is a strong possibility IMO. :angry:

This is already happening down south, the trend i suspect will catch on up here as prices are much lower, i knew there would be a dam fly in the ointment.

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle5851138.ece

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This is already happening down south, the trend i suspect will catch on up here as prices are much lower, i knew there would be a dam fly in the ointment.

http://property.timesonline.co.uk/tol/life...icle5851138.ece

Brilliant again from the Times. :rolleyes:

"So great is the desire to take advantage of the buying opportunity represented by current prices - now down to 2004 levels - that some homeowners are even considering remortgaging their own homes so that they might buy a smaller property in cash."

Remortgage ? CASH ? Have I missed something here !!

There are definitely people out there with big wads of cash. However thier numbers are tiny compared to the whole market. I imagine real cash buyers will have some effect but don't reckon it will be a huge one. Their other investments will be tumbling in value just like the rest of the population.

Scary times. We are all ******ed !!

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Brilliant again from the Times. :rolleyes:

"So great is the desire to take advantage of the buying opportunity represented by current prices - now down to 2004 levels - that some homeowners are even considering remortgaging their own homes so that they might buy a smaller property in cash."

Remortgage ? CASH ? Have I missed something here !!

There are definitely people out there with big wads of cash. However thier numbers are tiny compared to the whole market. I imagine real cash buyers will have some effect but don't reckon it will be a huge one. Their other investments will be tumbling in value just like the rest of the population.

Scary times. We are all ******ed !!

I Have researched this method of investment before, what they do is re mortgage there house, and release around 100k, they then get 75% BTL Mortgages, and buy say as an example 5 flats at 80k each, using the 100 to finance there deposit.

They then rent them out for 500 pounds each a month, giving them an income of 2500 per month.If they bagged a decent 3 year fixed rate at 3%, that would be costing them on 60k of borrowing around 150 per month, so the return is 350 per month times 5 = 1750 per month return.

My mate did this around 2003, he sold up in 2007, and moved to Spain, it seems we are almost at 2003 prices going by the auction guide prices.

So you can see why there is the interest in investing again, at the right price, in the right area, at the right mortgage rate, if you get it right you can make a wad,

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I Have researched this method of investment before, what they do is re mortgage there house, and release around 100k, they then get 75% BTL Mortgages, and buy say as an example 5 flats at 80k each, using the 100 to finance there deposit.

They then rent them out for 500 pounds each a month, giving them an income of 2500 per month.If they bagged a decent 3 year fixed rate at 3%, that would be costing them on 60k of borrowing around 150 per month, so the return is 350 per month times 5 = 1750 per month return.

My mate did this around 2003, he sold up in 2007, and moved to Spain, it seems we are almost at 2003 prices going by the auction guide prices.

So you can see why there is the interest in investing again, at the right price, in the right area, at the right mortgage rate, if you get it right you can make a wad,

Your mate sounds like he is either very smart or very lucky.

It is serious leveraging.

To do it at present on an asset you KNOW is dropping in value ? Risky does not even come close. The 100k capital could be wiped out in 6 months.

May work of course. Doubt it. Timing needs to be perfect. Also your mate got lucky/smart with huge capital appreciation. Without that I doubt he could have retired off the proceeds. Will we see that type of capital appreciation in the next 10 years ? Unlikely, but not impossible.

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Your mate sounds like he is either very smart or very lucky.

It is serious leveraging.

To do it at present on an asset you KNOW is dropping in value ? Risky does not even come close. The 100k capital could be wiped out in 6 months.

May work of course. Doubt it. Timing needs to be perfect. Also your mate got lucky/smart with huge capital appreciation. Without that I doubt he could have retired off the proceeds. Will we see that type of capital appreciation in the next 10 years ? Unlikely, but not impossible.

He got lucky, he was as thick as 2 planks, he sold all his in mid 2007, 1 beds in gorgie for around 130k each, he bought in at around 60ish each.

Like you say unlikely we will see 100% capital growth over the next 6 years. :lol:

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Your mate sounds like he is either very smart or very lucky.

It is serious leveraging.

To do it at present on an asset you KNOW is dropping in value ? Risky does not even come close. The 100k capital could be wiped out in 6 months.

May work of course. Doubt it. Timing needs to be perfect. Also your mate got lucky/smart with huge capital appreciation. Without that I doubt he could have retired off the proceeds. Will we see that type of capital appreciation in the next 10 years ? Unlikely, but not impossible.

There must have been some money to make in the BTL Gig, if you played it right.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/artic...ski-chalet.html

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There must have been some money to make in the BTL Gig, if you played it right.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/artic...ski-chalet.html

Too right. If I had been interested in this stuff years ago - I would have possibly dived in for some short term risky gains myself. :ph34r:

It amazes me how many of them don't see to have a clue what they are doing.

With what other business plan was it so easy to get hundreds of thousands off the bank ? With zero knowledge of what you were doing. Mental.

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Too right. If I had been interested in this stuff years ago - I would have possibly dived in for some short term risky gains myself. :ph34r:

It amazes me how many of them don't see to have a clue what they are doing.

With what other business plan was it so easy to get hundreds of thousands off the bank ? With zero knowledge of what you were doing. Mental.

I Watched him do it, i told him he was mad, he had the atitude he did not giva a - - - -. As i say he sold up August 07 moved to Spain and retired with a small fortune, i never had the bottle.

To risky for me, that thick twit still sends me texts from his boat, and his villa, asking if i have bought any flats yet. Its all done in a funny way, no problems with me, he invites me over all the time, lucky git, if he fell in the river he would come out pockets full of fish.

I am thinking maybee just maybee the time will come again to repeat his scheme. ? its getting the timing right thats the problem. :(

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