The Depression Triggers Sell Off Of Cars Before They Rust In The Fields

[Guest sillybear2]

Even in the UK, BT, Royalmail, Delivery firms and a whole host of others will replace their fleets. The entire country is not going to hibernate! There needs to be some perspective brought into this.

I disagree, we're going Mad Max next Tuesday, 1:59 pm.

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

The stats above shows that demand is roughly ~70% compared to the peak, how does that equate to nobody buying?

and still falling sharply.

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

Even in the UK, BT, Royalmail, Delivery firms and a whole host of others will replace their fleets. The entire country is not going to hibernate! There needs to be some perspective brought into this.

the UK, BT and Royalmail are all close to bankruptcy, so I wouldn't be so sure.

[Guest sillybear2]

and still falling sharply.

So demand will hit zero and we'll go like Cuba? Is that what you're forecasting?

Edited February 18, 2009 by sillybear2

[roadtoruin]

Small cars are a lot cheaper than large cars when new, but it surprise me how much premium people will pay for a small car when they're old. Granted, they are cheaper to run but how much cheaper? A 51 reg Micra for over £2k! I don't doubt it will sell but people are mugs for small cars for (sexism alert) the missus or as a 'shopping car.'

A Mondeo, Avensis or similar car at 51 reg would be a up to a grand cheaper, and safer. Would they cost that much more to run? At that age, I doubt it.

Weighed in my '51 Avensis last year, mainly because servicing costs at 80K miles were getting ridiculous, £300-400 every 6 months (doing 20K p.a.). Alright this was Toyota high-priced servicing and perhaps I could have found a cheaper independent, but every part was a fortune from brake pads to shockers, oxygen sensors, 3rd timing belt etc. Can't imagine a micra would be anything like it to maintain, tho' maybe it would once you got it up to high mileage and parts start going.

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

So demand will hit zero and we'll go like Cuba? Is that's you're forecasting?

in Britain, demand for new cars in 2010 will be negligible in comparison with 2007

[Markie6]

When will the airfields clear ? This year ?

I very much doubt it

In the mean time, people will make their older cars last longer, they will downsize or they will make do with 1 car per household if somebody loses their job

The days of trading in your car every 3 years are over for a while for an awful lot of people.

The consequences for any car maker who has a new model coming through with the airfields full will lead to very nice deals

[deflation]

Weighed in my '51 Avensis last year, mainly because servicing costs at 80K miles were getting ridiculous, £300-400 every 6 months (doing 20K p.a.). Alright this was Toyota high-priced servicing and perhaps I could have found a cheaper independent, but every part was a fortune from brake pads to shockers, oxygen sensors, 3rd timing belt etc. Can't imagine a micra would be anything like it to maintain, tho' maybe it would once you got it up to high mileage and parts start going.

Good points. Toyota are renowned for having expensive parts, but many believe you need less of them. However, I doubt anyone would expect to do 20k miles a year in a Micra.

If you're doing 20k p.a. you're one of the few who really would benefit from running a diesel car. Many of them have 20k service intervals nowadays, which, personally, I think is too many, but would satisfy the service history fans.

[pikestones]

bankrupt companies have their stock liquidated - most likely at auction in the case of car manufactures.

most of the cars that are currently loitering in airfields will eventually be sold off at below production costs

Sorry mate but it wont happen like that,think back to the collapse of Rover,the Liquidators just carried on selling all the pre built cars through selected dealers,no Auction houses involved,

Prices remained within 10-15% of the pre collapse prices.

[BalancedBear]

Weighed in my '51 Avensis last year, mainly because servicing costs at 80K miles were getting ridiculous, £300-400 every 6 months (doing 20K p.a.). Alright this was Toyota high-priced servicing and perhaps I could have found a cheaper independent, but every part was a fortune from brake pads to shockers, oxygen sensors, 3rd timing belt etc. Can't imagine a micra would be anything like it to maintain, tho' maybe it would once you got it up to high mileage and parts start going.

You were a mug taking it to Toyata at that age. A car with 80k miles on the clock has lots of life in it. An independent garage could use non-genuine parts which cost a fraction of Toyota ones, and you would have had a good car for years to come.

Until my most recent car I had never bought a car with less than 80k on the clock. My last car was an Audi A8 I bought with 125k on the clock and sold it with 185k. All I ever had done was a timing belt and water pump by an independent garage, and a new gearbox ECU again by an independent. Running that was much cheaper than your Avensis.

Edited February 18, 2009 by BalancedBear

[Markie6]

Sorry mate but it wont happen like that,think back to the collapse of Rover,the Liquidators just carried on selling all the pre built cars through selected dealers,no Auction houses involved,

Prices remained within 10-15% of the pre collapse prices.

was that in the middle of the boom ? or the bust ?

[InternationalRockSuperstar]

Sorry mate but it wont happen like that,think back to the collapse of Rover

I hardly think the collapse of Rover can be compared to the collapse of the entire auto-industry, let alone the collapse of western economies.

the Liquidators just carried on selling all the pre built cars through selected dealers,no Auction houses involved,

and how do you suppose all these thousands of unsold cars are going to get shifted then?

[the-sign-jacker]

your not going to get 70% of an Audi A6, they'd be selling at a huge loss, putting themselves in a worse position and devaluing the product.

to continue to store devaluing cars and the staff storage costs will be higher than just getting shot of them.

its just the way it is. after that they will hold little if any stock, and new audis will be placed on order rather than off the forecourt. its a question of survival, not prestige. id rather be in business than full of prestige but out of business.

this car grab will only last as long as the stocks still in the uk, but expect more to come.

[Guest sillybear2]

Weighed in my '51 Avensis last year, mainly because servicing costs at 80K miles were getting ridiculous, £300-400 every 6 months (doing 20K p.a.). Alright this was Toyota high-priced servicing and perhaps I could have found a cheaper independent, but every part was a fortune from brake pads to shockers, oxygen sensors, 3rd timing belt etc. Can't imagine a micra would be anything like it to maintain, tho' maybe it would once you got it up to high mileage and parts start going.

You mean people change their cars because their existing one's become old, unreliable and expensive to service? This cannot be, demand must go to zero. Fleet managers will never ever buy any new cars again, not a single one, cars will be left rotting in airfields for 7 years. Why wont you accept this reality?

Edited February 18, 2009 by sillybear2

[Guest sillybear2]

this car grab will only last as long as the stocks still in the uk, but expect more to come.

There's nothing stopping them from loading them on to ships you know, look at the level of Sterling.

[roadtoruin]

You were a mug taking it to Toyata at that age. A car with 80k miles on the clock has lots of life in it. An independent garage could use non-genuine parts which cost a fraction of Toyota ones, and you would have had a good car for years to come.

Until my most recent car I had never bought a car with less than 80k on the clock. My last car was an Audi A8 I bought with 125k on the clock and sold it with 185k. All I ever had done was a timing belt and water pump by an independent garage, and a new gearbox ECU again by an independent. Running that was much cheaper than your Avensis.

I'll admit to mugdom on this one, the Toyota garage was 100 yards down the road from me and it was sheer laziness. However I do think it was a bit of a friday afternoon Toyota, if they have those. Lots of bits like water pump replaced under warranty and the famous 'Avensis oil-burning problem' to boot. Traded it for a Focus diesel when Toyota were quoting close to £800 work coming up needed on brakes and shock absorbers.

Ford's not a bad car except how they get away with trip computers that systematically (and presumably deliberately) overestimate the mileage you're getting is amazing. If you never check it carefully you never realise I guess...

[pikestones]

and how do you suppose all these thousands of unsold cars are going to get shifted then?

Im only comparing with a real situation,rather than possibilities.

When rover went down PWC had 35,000 pre built Rover cars to shift,

Did you see any firesales of Rovers?

They held them back,releasing small batches every month,admitidly it took 2 years to shift them,but they did .

The cost of storage is almost nil in the big scheme of things,

Why would the liquidators want to sell them off quickly and at big losses,they get more paydays the longer they stretch out the process and make themselves look better by returning more money.

[xux42]

I just spotted a "51" plate Micra at the side of the road with a £1995 label on it. 36k miles and looking straight out of the box.Knocked on the guy's door and forced 1800 of our English into his hand.

Dammit man don't you know how hard this is making buying a car?

Every time I find a tidy 02/03 Focus on Autotrader for under £2.5K some bloody trader nicks it in the following 48hrs.

[Converted Lurker]

I sold it's sister car last saturday for £2495,a rather putrid purple/blue colour,this one is post box red ,so I am bullish.

staggering when you think how stoopid folk still are, no disrespect but it's such a dinosaur business model isn't it, they might as well just go and by a car then turn up at yours and give you 700 quid for nothing.

[Gone baby gone]

There's nothing stopping them from loading them on to ships you know, look at the level of Sterling.

They need to ship them quite far to find somewhere that right-hand drive cars would sell for reasonable prices. Think, the other side of the world

[roadtoruin]

staggering when you think how stoopid folk still are, no disrespect but it's such a dinosaur business model isn't it, they might as well just go and by a car then turn up at yours and give you 700 quid for nothing.

Yes, but it's surprising how many people are terrified of buying a complete shed from a private seller. They'd rather lose the £700 and have '3 months guarantee' written on a piece of paper - even if that doesn't represent very much in added value.

[Executive Sadman]

If i can get a mondeo sized car for £5000k and Mandelson pays half, ill bite.

EDIT; obviously i mean £5k, barring some hyperinflation.

Edited February 18, 2009 by Sadman

[Guest sillybear2]

Correct me if I'm wrong (somebody), but Rover didn't have the volume of metal lying around that some of these manufacturers have.

Rover had a ruse, every car produced was immediately sold to RBS (or HBOS?) finance when it rolled off the production line, and their books were rebated

[Leonard Hatred]

I've taken the BTLer's option - "I'll just buy more before they go up again!"

Unfortunately, my driveway is now so packed that I can't open my front door.

[50%deposit]

i had a brain wave today. the car manufacturers should stop making cheap cars, they should only make a small number of expensive cars, that way they create demand by not flooding the market and they become profitable. fool proof as long as no one undercuts them.