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Edinburgh Spring Bounce


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How could you prove your house was yours ? It is all electronically registered now IIRC.

Everythign gos mad max, all system down, everything kaput.

If that happened I think the concept of 'owner occupier' would be out the window - literally.

Of course if things just get quite bad then having a tangible asset would be a good thing IMO.

All guesswork. In 5 years you could look back at buying gold as a great move. Alternatively you could look back and think "Why didnt I just keep it all in cash?".

It is a lottery. :rolleyes:

I've changed my mind. I'm going to blow it all on an armoured car with a machine gun nest. And lots of tins of beans.

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The bounce is here: New hope for house prices (Evening News, of course).

THERE was some good news for Edinburgh's embattled property market today as a leading lender reported average prices in the Capital were back on the increase.

Lloyds TSB Scotland said that the average house price for the sales it handled was £221,491 in the three months to the end of January, up 7.3 per cent on the previous quarter, when the figure was £213,283.

Hurray!

Today's figures are only based on mortgages that Lloyds TSB Scotland has issued over the period – so may be influenced by changing risk approaches by the lender.

Oh.

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I've changed my mind. I'm going to blow it all on an armoured car with a machine gun nest. And lots of tins of beans.

Good plan. Remember a wood burnign stove, a crossbow and a few pigs too. You will be sorted. Just dont tell anyone where you live. :ph34r:

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Does that not mean that prices have dropped 20% from peak? I for one am quite happy with that. This process is nowhere near through and you have to walk before you can run......

Hmmmm, in this case I think fully done up will be in the region of £450k as the place is a mess! So you are right, I am a glass half empty kind of person!! Prices are definitely down between 10 and 20% since peak ..................... but the prices are still madness. Contrary to what Hamish reckons I dont think that there are a huge amount of people looking in this area who have joint incomes of over 50k, so if we say the joint income is 50k these houses are over 8 times joint income. That seems like a lot! Also as they rent for about £1000 per month that is less than 3% rental yield. So I think there is a fair way down yet to go, however I am going just about mad waiting for it to happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Hmmmm, in this case I think fully done up will be in the region of £450k as the place is a mess! So you are right, I am a glass half empty kind of person!! Prices are definitely down between 10 and 20% since peak ..................... but the prices are still madness. Contrary to what Hamish reckons I dont think that there are a huge amount of people looking in this area who have joint incomes of over 50k, so if we say the joint income is 50k these houses are over 8 times joint income. That seems like a lot! Also as they rent for about £1000 per month that is less than 3% rental yield. So I think there is a fair way down yet to go, however I am going just about mad waiting for it to happen!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I think you'd be surprised. I know that when I moved back from overseas the last time, I was quite shocked at how much most of the people I knew here were now on.

Some examples of a few friends I've known for years: Charity fundraiser-- 32K, Events organiser--35K Senior P.A. - £38k, Supermarket Manager-£55K, Nightclub Manager-£40K (plus about 10K in bonuses), Pub manager-£32K, Medical equipment salesman-£50k (including commissions), Teacher- £35K, Rural Primary School Head Teacher-£45k, Lorry driver-£36k, G.P.- £100K, and a whole load of managers and engineers on between 60K and 100K.

Now, I know the managers and engineers will be on a lot because they're in Aberdeen and the oil, etc, just as a lot of bankers and financial people in Edinburgh will be on a lot. But for a household income of 50K or less, you really have to be looking at semi-skilled people, not professionals, if both are working.

For example, an experienced lorry driver and a mid-level secretary would easily be on 50K between them, and probably a bit more. A neighborhood pub manager and his dental hygenist wife would also easily be on £50K. A married couple of 35 y/o school teachers will be on around 70K, and teachers are not exactly well paid. And in all honesty, what are any of them doing looking at 450K houses with income that low? Unless of course they are 45 or so, bought a 100K place whilst young, and have now got 300K in equity which is entirely possible.

Fair enough, all my mates are 35-50 years old, and so will generally earn more than young folks in their 20's, but I'd have thought that would be the age range of people looking at proper houses anyway, as they'd have to build equity in a flat or the like for a decade plus before it made sense to upsize surely. Most of the people I am friends with are in dual income couples, and I don't think any of them are on less than around 60K combined, most are on at least 75K combined, and quite a few are on 100K to 130K combined. I know thats not exactly a scientific survey or anything, but as I said, even I thought it was surprising.

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I think you'd be surprised. I know that when I moved back from overseas the last time, I was quite shocked at how much most of the people I knew here were now on.

Some examples of a few friends I've known for years: Charity fundraiser-- 32K, Events organiser--35K Senior P.A. - £38k, Supermarket Manager-£55K, Nightclub Manager-£40K (plus about 10K in bonuses), Pub manager-£32K, Medical equipment salesman-£50k (including commissions), Teacher- £35K, Rural Primary School Head Teacher-£45k, Lorry driver-£36k, G.P.- £100K, and a whole load of managers and engineers on between 60K and 100K.

Now, I know the managers and engineers will be on a lot because they're in Aberdeen and the oil, etc, just as a lot of bankers and financial people in Edinburgh will be on a lot. But for a household income of 50K or less, you really have to be looking at semi-skilled people, not professionals, if both are working.

For example, an experienced lorry driver and a mid-level secretary would easily be on 50K between them, and probably a bit more. A neighborhood pub manager and his dental hygenist wife would also easily be on £50K. A married couple of 35 y/o school teachers will be on around 70K, and teachers are not exactly well paid. And in all honesty, what are any of them doing looking at 450K houses with income that low? Unless of course they are 45 or so, bought a 100K place whilst young, and have now got 300K in equity which is entirely possible.

Fair enough, all my mates are 35-50 years old, and so will generally earn more than young folks in their 20's, but I'd have thought that would be the age range of people looking at proper houses anyway, as they'd have to build equity in a flat or the like for a decade plus before it made sense to upsize surely. Most of the people I am friends with are in dual income couples, and I don't think any of them are on less than around 60K combined, most are on at least 75K combined, and quite a few are on 100K to 130K combined. I know thats not exactly a scientific survey or anything, but as I said, even I thought it was surprising.

EDINBURGH IS SERIOUSLY OVERPRICED

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I think you'd be surprised. I know that when I moved back from overseas the last time, I was quite shocked at how much most of the people I knew here were now on.

Some examples of a few friends I've known for years: Charity fundraiser-- 32K, Events organiser--35K Senior P.A. - £38k, Supermarket Manager-£55K, Nightclub Manager-£40K (plus about 10K in bonuses), Pub manager-£32K, Medical equipment salesman-£50k (including commissions), Teacher- £35K, Rural Primary School Head Teacher-£45k, Lorry driver-£36k, G.P.- £100K, and a whole load of managers and engineers on between 60K and 100K.

Now, I know the managers and engineers will be on a lot because they're in Aberdeen and the oil, etc, just as a lot of bankers and financial people in Edinburgh will be on a lot. But for a household income of 50K or less, you really have to be looking at semi-skilled people, not professionals, if both are working.

For example, an experienced lorry driver and a mid-level secretary would easily be on 50K between them, and probably a bit more. A neighborhood pub manager and his dental hygenist wife would also easily be on £50K. A married couple of 35 y/o school teachers will be on around 70K, and teachers are not exactly well paid. And in all honesty, what are any of them doing looking at 450K houses with income that low? Unless of course they are 45 or so, bought a 100K place whilst young, and have now got 300K in equity which is entirely possible.

Fair enough, all my mates are 35-50 years old, and so will generally earn more than young folks in their 20's, but I'd have thought that would be the age range of people looking at proper houses anyway, as they'd have to build equity in a flat or the like for a decade plus before it made sense to upsize surely. Most of the people I am friends with are in dual income couples, and I don't think any of them are on less than around 60K combined, most are on at least 75K combined, and quite a few are on 100K to 130K combined. I know thats not exactly a scientific survey or anything, but as I said, even I thought it was surprising.

Hamish you must associate with fairly well off circles. The numbers you state above are outwith reality for most people IMO.

Go into any branch of a bank or BS. Go into any supermarket. Go into any other retail shop.

If even 5% of the employees you see earn more than 25k per year I would be shocked.

Yes areas like tradesmen have been doing well recently but that has come to an end for a huge number.

I suppose the public sector has a large number of people on pretty decent salaries. However that must surely take a hit soon as well.

As for people that actually keep their jobs the impact of a reduction in overtime, bonuses, profit shaers etc. will have a massive impact on the economy. Millions of those lucky enough to keep their jobs will be getting a paycut of more than 10% on what they are used to. That is going to hurt and curtail spending big style.

I have made this point numerous times and I think the impact of it is overlooked by most.

Most just look at the unemployed. I think that is wrong. I think it is the employed who don't get that little 'extra' pocket money anymore - that will have the greatest impact on this recession.

All I can see for the next few years, at least, is wealth destruction. Happened already on a massive scale. I can't see it ending anytime soon.

But then again, easy come, easy go.

The overtime that increased by 10k in the last few years ? Easy come easy go.

The pension that increased by 50% over the past 5 years ? Easy come easy go.

The investment property that increased by 50% over the past 5 years ? Easy come easy go.

The sharesave option that increased by 200% over the last 5 years ? Easy come easy go.

Of course there will be the other side of the coin - people doing ok out of all this. However I think they will be dwarfed by the losers in this event.

In light of all this I just cannot fathom how the price of property will do anything but nosedive. I seriously can see no reason at all. Maybe I will be wrong. I would be shocked though.

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I think you'd be surprised. I know that when I moved back from overseas the last time, I was quite shocked at how much most of the people I knew here were now on.

Some examples of a few friends I've known for years: Charity fundraiser-- 32K, Events organiser--35K Senior P.A. - £38k, Supermarket Manager-£55K, Nightclub Manager-£40K (plus about 10K in bonuses), Pub manager-£32K, Medical equipment salesman-£50k (including commissions), Teacher- £35K, Rural Primary School Head Teacher-£45k, Lorry driver-£36k, G.P.- £100K, and a whole load of managers and engineers on between 60K and 100K.

Now, I know the managers and engineers will be on a lot because they're in Aberdeen and the oil, etc, just as a lot of bankers and financial people in Edinburgh will be on a lot. But for a household income of 50K or less, you really have to be looking at semi-skilled people, not professionals, if both are working.

For example, an experienced lorry driver and a mid-level secretary would easily be on 50K between them, and probably a bit more. A neighborhood pub manager and his dental hygenist wife would also easily be on £50K. A married couple of 35 y/o school teachers will be on around 70K, and teachers are not exactly well paid. And in all honesty, what are any of them doing looking at 450K houses with income that low? Unless of course they are 45 or so, bought a 100K place whilst young, and have now got 300K in equity which is entirely possible.

Fair enough, all my mates are 35-50 years old, and so will generally earn more than young folks in their 20's, but I'd have thought that would be the age range of people looking at proper houses anyway, as they'd have to build equity in a flat or the like for a decade plus before it made sense to upsize surely. Most of the people I am friends with are in dual income couples, and I don't think any of them are on less than around 60K combined, most are on at least 75K combined, and quite a few are on 100K to 130K combined. I know thats not exactly a scientific survey or anything, but as I said, even I thought it was surprising.

Hamish, I quite agree, however a lot of the people I know only have one parent working, or one working part time. And who wants a 300k mortgage no matter how much you are earning, if one person loses their job you lose the house.

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Hamish you must associate with fairly well off circles. The numbers you state above are outwith reality for most people IMO.

Go into any branch of a bank or BS. Go into any supermarket. Go into any other retail shop.

If even 5% of the employees you see earn more than 25k per year I would be shocked.

Yes areas like tradesmen have been doing well recently but that has come to an end for a huge number.

I suppose the public sector has a large number of people on pretty decent salaries. However that must surely take a hit soon as well.

As for people that actually keep their jobs the impact of a reduction in overtime, bonuses, profit shaers etc. will have a massive impact on the economy. Millions of those lucky enough to keep their jobs will be getting a paycut of more than 10% on what they are used to. That is going to hurt and curtail spending big style.

I have made this point numerous times and I think the impact of it is overlooked by most.

Most just look at the unemployed. I think that is wrong. I think it is the employed who don't get that little 'extra' pocket money anymore - that will have the greatest impact on this recession.

All I can see for the next few years, at least, is wealth destruction. Happened already on a massive scale. I can't see it ending anytime soon.

But then again, easy come, easy go.

The overtime that increased by 10k in the last few years ? Easy come easy go.

The pension that increased by 50% over the past 5 years ? Easy come easy go.

The investment property that increased by 50% over the past 5 years ? Easy come easy go.

The sharesave option that increased by 200% over the last 5 years ? Easy come easy go.

Of course there will be the other side of the coin - people doing ok out of all this. However I think they will be dwarfed by the losers in this event.

In light of all this I just cannot fathom how the price of property will do anything but nosedive. I seriously can see no reason at all. Maybe I will be wrong. I would be shocked though.

You are right there are some who are doing well in this carnage, ie i know of 2 guys who own over 20 buy to let flats, all on tracker mortgages, one guy has deals that tracked below base he is paying around 50 quid per month to service loans , that are generating 500 pounds a month in rent, i was told by his broker that he is earning 20k per month from his flats.

SOUNDS GOOD ? WELL NO the broker told me he is really worried because he just does not know what is going to happen next, so he is reducing his mortgages with the extra cash.

The bottom line is you could be a winner this year, and a loser next year, as the depreccion deepens, no one actually has a clue what is going to happen.

Brown and Darling are now talking about printing money for gods sake, would you trust these two in a crisis ?

Edited by thecrutchster
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You are right there are some who are doing well in this carnage, ie i know of 2 guys who own over 20 buy to let flats, all on tracker mortgages, one guy has deals that tracked below base he is paying around 50 quid per month to service loans , that are generating 500 pounds a month in rent, i was told by his broker that he is earning 20k per month from his flats.

SOUNDS GOOD ? WELL NO the broker told me he is really worried because he just does not know what is going to happen next, so he is reducing his mortgages with the extra cash.

The bottom line is you could be a winner this year, and a loser next year, as the depreccion deepens, no one actually has a clue what is going to happen.

Brown and Darling are now talking about printing money for gods sake, would you trust these two in a crisis ?

These guys could do very well. However are their assets losing more than 20k per month in value ? I would imagine yes - plus a bit more. What will happen when their deals run out and their flats get re-valued down? That is the key question. Potential bankruptcy and a loss of all those paper profits ?

Also I hope they realise their competition in the rental stakes is growing by the day !! "I'll just rent it out instead" are seeing to that.

Interesting to watch. If these guys were smart they would have sold up about a year ago when they had the chance. Their actions mean whilst they may have lots of assets and a good income today - they knew very little about what was going on in the business they take part in. Seems yet another case of sheer luck.

Not good in the long term for their prospects. Luck tends to run out eventually. :P

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These guys could do very well. However are their assets losing more than 20k per month in value ? I would imagine yes - plus a bit more. What will happen when their deals run out and their flats get re-valued down? That is the key question. Potential bankruptcy and a loss of all those paper profits ?

Also I hope they realise their competition in the rental stakes is growing by the day !! "I'll just rent it out instead" are seeing to that.

Interesting to watch. If these guys were smart they would have sold up about a year ago when they had the chance. Their actions mean whilst they may have lots of assets and a good income today - they knew very little about what was going on in the business they take part in. Seems yet another case of sheer luck.

Not good in the long term for their prospects. Luck tends to run out eventually. :P

You are 100 percent correct, they got lucky, however can it last, i will give you an example of a luck running out story, a big developer in Edinburgh recently went bust, i will call him DJ as a name, i recently got talking to the guy who has been asked by the Bank to possibly do the development works on all the properties repossesed, who told me DJs business model here it is and it worked for the first 2 years in a rising market.

1. Buy top end central Edinburgh west end properties for prices in excess of 500k up to 1.5 mill.

2. Spend 1 to 2 hundred k developing them to high standard.

3. Rent them out for 2 years losing around 20k per year on rental income v mortgage costs.

4. After 2 years and 20% capital growth sell, so his model was based on 20% capital growth on around a million pounds worth so 200k profit minus rental lost still making around 160k per deal, ( in a rising market )

5. Re invest the profits on more prchases and keep the conveyor belt moving.

I Know what you are thinking ( a plan worked out on the back of a fag packet ) well back to the luck running out bit, his plan got lucky from 2004 to mid 2007 all went well, then the credit crunch bit, house price deflation, the plan had no exit strategy, the conveyor went into reverse, THE LUCK RAN OUT.

The inevitable happened to good old DJ, the bank stepped in and repossesed the lot.

A Hard luck story inddeed.

Edited by thecrutchster
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Guest An Bearin Bui
The inevitable happened to good old DJ, the bank stepped in and repossesed the lot.

A Hard luck story inddeed.

Interesting... I have to say that the last time I drove along Palmerston Place, there was an absolute forest of for sale signs all along towards Haymarket Place, past St. Marys. I remember thinking that it must be some developer that got into trouble. I also know of someone that bought around there in 2007. They bought from a developer who had renovated a house there and was selling it off apartment by apartment at peak prices. It was a shoddy job as they were miffed that the place hadn't been done up as they had been promised. They could only afford the basement in the block but every time I drive past I think how gutted they must be as almost everything in that street is up for sale now. I thought at the time it must have been some developer scam and from your evidence, it seems I may have been right.

This is why property should just not be a target of speculation - no personal offence intended but this is just my firm belief. There should be strong regulation against the kind of buy-to-flip stuff that your developer contact DJ was engaging in. In the end, he went bust but I feel more sorry for the person I know who is now living in an overpriced basement flat, with shoddy fittings and a huge mortgage on a property that they won't be able to offload for a decade. And all because DJ wanted to line his pockets... why couldn't he have gone and invested in something more productive instead of harming the lives of ordinary people??

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You are 100 percent correct, they got lucky, however can it last, i will give you an example of a luck running out story, a big developer in Edinburgh recently went bust, i will call him DJ as a name, i recently got talking to the guy who has been asked by the Bank to possibly do the development works on all the properties repossesed, who told me DJs business model here it is and it worked for the first 2 years in a rising market.

1. Buy top end central Edinburgh west end properties for prices in excess of 500k up to 1.5 mill.

2. Spend 1 to 2 hundred k developing them to high standard.

3. Rent them out for 2 years losing around 20k per year on rental income v mortgage costs.

4. After 2 years and 20% capital growth sell, so his model was based on 20% capital growth on around a million pounds worth so 200k profit minus rental lost still making around 160k per deal, ( in a rising market )

5. Re invest the profits on more prchases and keep the conveyor belt moving.

I Know what you are thinking ( a plan worked out on the back of a fag packet ) well back to the luck running out bit, his plan got lucky from 2004 to mid 2007 all went well, then the credit crunch bit, house price deflation, the plan had no exit strategy, the conveyor went into reverse, THE LUCK RAN OUT.

The inevitable happened to good old DJ, the bank stepped in and repossesed the lot.

A Hard luck story inddeed.

Interesting stuff. Just shows you what a bit of luck can get you. I am taking a guess here - he drove around in a Bentley or a large Range Rover ? Again I don't have a clue who the person is but I have seen a fair few in Edinburgh in their Bentleys whop I can just sense are "about to go bust" developers.

His model was based on 20% capital growth... :o

One minute of research and he would have worked out that was impossible to maintain.

As An Bearin Bui states I think rules should be put in place to stop this sort of thing. A shelter for a person is not the same as a share or a unit trust. Property should not be viewed in the same way as otehr investments.

Saying that I have no problem with people doing it properly who know what they are doing. They provide a service for people and can add real value to properties. The problem occurs when half this country thinks they can all do this at once.

Rules/Laws for large capital bases etc.. could ensure that any further 'property development' could be kept to those with real capital/money sitting behind it ? Take away much of the speculative aspect whilst leaving those who do a good job to earn a good living ?

Something should be done.

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Guest An Bearin Bui
Rules/Laws for large capital bases etc.. could ensure that any further 'property development' could be kept to those with real capital/money sitting behind it ? Take away much of the speculative aspect whilst leaving those who do a good job to earn a good living ?

Something should be done.

Yes, I'm not fundamentally against property as an asset class as someone has to own it at the end of the day and if it's not individuals then it would be large corporates or pension funds. The advantage of the latter is that they are at least stable and should have reserves to back their investments as there are financial rules in place to ensure they do.

Any numpty off the street investing in property and flipping it for cash is wrong, in my view, as it destabilises the whole market. The German regime where you only pay capital gains tax if you sell up within 10 years would be a good idea. If this applied to owner-occupiers as well it would dampen down speculation and force out short-term speculators. Even in Germany there are still investors and times when property has boomed but taxation and regulation like the capital gains rule would take the destructive edge off it and calm speculative activity.

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Interesting stuff. Just shows you what a bit of luck can get you. I am taking a guess here - he drove around in a Bentley or a large Range Rover ? Again I don't have a clue who the person is but I have seen a fair few in Edinburgh in their Bentleys whop I can just sense are "about to go bust" developers.

His model was based on 20% capital growth... :o

One minute of research and he would have worked out that was impossible to maintain.

As An Bearin Bui states I think rules should be put in place to stop this sort of thing. A shelter for a person is not the same as a share or a unit trust. Property should not be viewed in the same way as otehr investments.

Saying that I have no problem with people doing it properly who know what they are doing. They provide a service for people and can add real value to properties. The problem occurs when half this country thinks they can all do this at once.

Rules/Laws for large capital bases etc.. could ensure that any further 'property development' could be kept to those with real capital/money sitting behind it ? Take away much of the speculative aspect whilst leaving those who do a good job to earn a good living ?

Something should be done.

Im not naming names, however he used to get a lot of press in the EEN Talking up the market ( i wonder why he would talk up the market ).

The amount of people i have met who jumped on the im a developer trail is unbeleivable, there is only one lot left out of about a list of 50 who are still doing the old buy an old property in need of renovation, do it up, just like the programes on the tv, then sell to make a tasty profit, it cant be done anymore.

Up untill mid 2008 you could just about get away with it, but the real house price crash has only really happened to gather speed sinsee mid 2008, so this trip has just started.

The banks have completely removed all development funding for property projects, so that has stalled a large part of the market, first time buyers are very thin on the ground, the only thing that is keeping the market going is the 3 Ds.

Death, Divorce, Debt.

You seem to have a good feel for the market you make a lot of sense, are you in this industry ?

Edited by thecrutchster
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Yes, I'm not fundamentally against property as an asset class as someone has to own it at the end of the day and if it's not individuals then it would be large corporates or pension funds. The advantage of the latter is that they are at least stable and should have reserves to back their investments as there are financial rules in place to ensure they do.

Any numpty off the street investing in property and flipping it for cash is wrong, in my view, as it destabilises the whole market. The German regime where you only pay capital gains tax if you sell up within 10 years would be a good idea. If this applied to owner-occupiers as well it would dampen down speculation and force out short-term speculators. Even in Germany there are still investors and times when property has boomed but taxation and regulation like the capital gains rule would take the destructive edge off it and calm speculative activity.

Not so sure about that one any more are you!

Problem is, if you take out the speculation the players who know what they are doing won`t make so much, and as the law and rule makers have probably had a VI in property over the last ten years there is your answer! The change has to come from the bottom up, the little guy has to live on what he earns and stop playing the bankers game. Although having said that (it would never happen anyway) it looks like the bankers have ruined their own card game. IMO banking/capitalism are going to be very different from now on.

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The inevitable happened to good old DJ, the bank stepped in and repossesed the lot.

A little squirrel in Erskine House tells me that the bank (or at least, the administrators on behalf of the bank) are having a helluva job repossessing that lot.

No names, no packdrill, but I think you'll find that the properties were cunningly put "beyond reach" (as the IRA like to say) in the name of a certain Company registered number 518480 and having its principal office at:

Trident Chambers

PO Box 146

Road Town

Tortola

British Virgin Islands

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A little squirrel in Erskine House tells me that the bank (or at least, the administrators on behalf of the bank) are having a helluva job repossessing that lot.

No names, no packdrill, but I think you'll find that the properties were cunningly put "beyond reach" (as the IRA like to say) in the name of a certain Company registered number 518480 and having its principal office at:

Trident Chambers

PO Box 146

Road Town

Tortola

British Virgin Islands

The situation is complex with the development sites, i know of another solid developer who has been asked by the lenders if they would be interested in doing the development work to the sites on behalf of the bank.

Its obvious to the bank that as they are leverdged so high to flog them of now would cost them fortunes, so the thought is get the works done and see this storm out and market them in a couple of years, banks seem to think the market will be more favourable then.

I Dont know the full details of exactly what happened in terms of DJ, The wording in the paper was odd, it said the sites were to be Moffballed ? i never quite got my head around that one.

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Im not naming names, however he used to get a lot of press in the EEN Talking up the market ( i wonder why he would talk up the market ).

The amount of people i have met who jumped on the im a developer trail is unbeleivable, there is only one lot left out of about a list of 50 who are still doing the old buy an old property in need of renovation, do it up, just like the programes on the tv, then sell to make a tasty profit, it cant be done anymore.

Up untill mid 2008 you could just about get away with it, but the real house price crash has only really happened to gather speed sinsee mid 2008, so this trip has just started.

The banks have completely removed all development funding for property projects, so that has stalled a large part of the market, first time buyers are very thin on the ground, the only thing that is keeping the market going is the 3 Ds.

Death, Divorce, Debt.

You seem to have a good feel for the market you make a lot of sense, are you in this industry ?

I think I know who you are talking about. Discussed in great detail on the main Edinburgh thread a while back. His best example was doing a piece telling everyone categorically not to sell their properties whilst trying to offload his entire portflio.

A very heritable outlook on life... ;)

I have, through a few friends, contacts in a few papers. Told them and passed on this info about a year ago. Thought it would make a good story but alas - they were not interested.

For one it was clear why - it was the very same paper he gave his 'advice' in the first place !!

Not in the industry myself. Was going to buy myself my first place a few years ago so decided I would readu up about it. Thought that would be the sensible thing to do whilst signing away a third of my life !! Hence I quickly found out what was going on.

Not having any links to the property market ever probably means I can have a better outlook than thsoe in it ? No vested interests at all. Well apart from perhaps wanting to buy a place one day. But that is not unusual.

So what do you plan to do once the BMV runs out of steam, which it must do ?

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It's not only the development side of that particular rats nest of companies that's in a spot of bovver.

Another well known and similarly hobbled herioteer (let's call him Charlie Brown) is in deep doodoo.

There are plenty of people East of Suez who would happily fund some specialist attention to CB's kneecaps, or so I'm told in the Long Bar at Raffles.

It's just a matter of time before he meets the enemies he made when he was on the way up, now that he's on the way down.

I'm not one of those enemies, but I'm loving being a spectator.

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I think I know who you are talking about. Discussed in great detail on the main Edinburgh thread a while back. His best example was doing a piece telling everyone categorically not to sell their properties whilst trying to offload his entire portflio.

A very heritable outlook on life... ;)

I have, through a few friends, contacts in a few papers. Told them and passed on this info about a year ago. Thought it would make a good story but alas - they were not interested.

For one it was clear why - it was the very same paper he gave his 'advice' in the first place !!

Not in the industry myself. Was going to buy myself my first place a few years ago so decided I would readu up about it. Thought that would be the sensible thing to do whilst signing away a third of my life !! Hence I quickly found out what was going on.

Not having any links to the property market ever probably means I can have a better outlook than thsoe in it ? No vested interests at all. Well apart from perhaps wanting to buy a place one day. But that is not unusual.

So what do you plan to do once the BMV runs out of steam, which it must do ?

I Started doing BMV Sourcing almost 5 years ago in a rising market and it worked well, when the market turned i thought the party was over, however i had to adjust my business model, and find it works even better in a falling market.

I was pretty sure you were in the business as your predictions are very accurate, however speaking to Estate Agents on a Daily basis, the rubbish they spout which is the opposite of what you say, confirms you must be out the box looking in, the worst out there 100% are the Remax mob, not a clue would be a compliment and up to all sorts of things.http://www.donottouchwithabargepole.com/newsdetail.php?id=35

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It's not only the development side of that particular rats nest of companies that's in a spot of bovver.

Another well known and similarly hobbled herioteer (let's call him Charlie Brown) is in deep doodoo.

There are plenty of people East of Suez who would happily fund some specialist attention to CB's kneecaps, or so I'm told in the Long Bar at Raffles.

It's just a matter of time before he meets the enemies he made when he was on the way up, now that he's on the way down.

I'm not one of those enemies, but I'm loving being a spectator.

Oh Dear, i dont think id like these guys you refer to East of Suez, i to am an interested spectator, in this den of vice you refer too.

Do you know why the collapse was reffered to in the paper as Moffballed ? surely they either went bust, or they got repossesed.

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I Started doing BMV Sourcing almost 5 years ago in a rising market and it worked well, when the market turned i thought the party was over, however i had to adjust my business model, and find it works even better in a falling market.

I was pretty sure you were in the business as your predictions are very accurate, however speaking to Estate Agents on a Daily basis, the rubbish they spout which is the opposite of what you say, confirms you must be out the box looking in, the worst out there 100% are the Remax mob, not a clue would be a compliment and up to all sorts of things.http://www.donottouchwithabargepole.com/newsdetail.php?id=35

You seem to know what you are doing and change your plans according to the market. Good work. As for the rest I don't understand how people who actually work in this business day to day can have so little knowledge ?

I think there must be some sort of self brainwashing going on ? Their pride simply won't let them admit they got it wrong. Very strange because everyone makes mistakes and gets things wrong !!

The best thing to do is realise your mistakes as soon as possible. This goes for life, business everything IMO.

I don't see the point in denial. But then I am a very matter of fact straight down the line sort of person. Not very welcome on newspaper websites like the Scotsman.. :ph34r:

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Guest An Bearin Bui
Im not naming names, however he used to get a lot of press in the EEN Talking up the market ( i wonder why he would talk up the market ).

'DJ', did you say? Hmmm... This 'DJ' wouldn't happen to run a letting agency as well, would he? If it's that DJ then you'll find quite a lot of interesting information about him in this Scottish forum if you search for his name. He's kind of our official property bull mascot... :lol:

For reasons, that I won't go into here, I personally hope he ends up bankrupt, living on the street and fighting with rabid dogs over scraps of rotten food from the bins of Edinburgh's less salubrious eateries :angry:

The likelihood of this happening is unfortunately very slim as I'm sure he has all his filthy lucre stashed away somewhere and is allowing strategic parts of his business go to the wall while protecting the rest of his assets...

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