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Edinburgh Spring Bounce


roblpm
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Just looked at a Bungalow in Greenbank yesterday. Needs everything doing, electrics, plumbing etc etc etc etc etc

6 Notes of interest and closing on Friday after only being on the market for a month. Offers over £315k!

As the peak for these kinds of properties was about £500k or just over, and this will take 50k to do up, or 100k including a loft conversion (it only has 3 bedrooms) seems like people are still willing to pay over £400k for a bungalow!

So another year or 2 to go I reckon!!

I will next look at a house in January 2010!!!

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and in the main forum there is a thread about cash buyers, i suspect these people are cash buyers should it go through as I cant see a bank lending on a property that needs total renovation.

I think an edinburgh spring bounce is inevitable as people still dont get it!!

Edinburgh is immune!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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I still suspect there will be a spring bounce in most areas of scotland.

Scotlands market is always very seasonal, with price fluctuations of up to 8% within a year in many areas. Can't see it being any different now.

What the spring bounce will show, IMO, is that many people have been vastly overestimating price falls to date from peak, which was of course Q2.

The 2009 Q2 figures will let us compare apples with apples and may well show that real price falls have been much smaller than many people thought.

Of course, prices could theoretically also fall off a cliff between now and then I suppose, but it'll sure be interesting to see.

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Its boring waiting though!!

And I cant see how on wages that cant be much over 50k per household that houses can cost 400-500k, especially when they rent out for £1000pcm.

So prices will come down, its just how long they take!! Could be years!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Its boring waiting though!!

And I cant see how on wages that cant be much over 50k per household that houses can cost 400-500k, especially when they rent out for £1000pcm.

So prices will come down, its just how long they take!! Could be years!!!!!!!!!!!!

I agree it’s very boring waiting in Edinburgh, which seems to be right at the back of the HPC queue.

And just two new properties have appeared on my regular search today, which is a very wide search, as it doesn’t specify an upper price limit. Still nothing is coming to the market and, judging by the overall number of search results, nothing is leaving it.

At least the spring bounce might persuade some vendors to try selling again, rather than ‘let’s just rent it out instead’ …

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Its boring waiting though!!

Ha ha, it certainly is. People forget that the conversation and thought process on here move at light speed compared to the real world!!!!!!!

And I cant see how on wages that cant be much over 50k per household that houses can cost 400-500k, especially when they rent out for £1000pcm.

So prices will come down, its just how long they take!! Could be years!!!!!!!!!!!!

The one cautionary point I make about this, is that actually most people living in and buying 500K houses are NOT on 50K a year.

There are simply more jobs in any large city than the city housing stock supports. The people on less money live in the supporting commuter belt. The limited city housing stock (or at least all the nice parts) is monopolised by the higher earners. Average wage stats are therefore often very misleading. The actual average wage of residents in nicer areas is massively higher than the norm.

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Problem being with Edinburgh - many of the high earners are going to be out of a job very soon. :lol:

Edinburgh is going to crash big time. It may take some time but I am happy with that. Have a look at the facts and figures thread. It is clear what is happening with many places. Being put out to rent. The major issue is that many simply are not renting, even at reduced prices.

I am planning towards 2012. Why not ? A sharp upturn in prices is massively unlikely going by previous bubbles.

No rush. Worst that can happen is this crash takes us all by surprise and prices start shooting up in some random manner. If that happens I will be sitting with no debt and huge savings. How depressing. :P

Of course we could have complete financial breakdown - however if that happens money/property is not the biggest worry.

I have said this before, I think we will see many small bull traps on the way down. The common belief is that more money was lost following the great crash of 1929 than actually during it. The reason ? Many thinking they could 'bag a bargain' finding out later they had lost everything. Same thing has happened already in the last few years in the US.#

I see little reason to think we will somehow avoid all of this. Have a look at who is at the helm !!

He will guarantee everything gets very bad. He seems to have a knack for it.

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The one cautionary point I make about this, is that actually most people living in and buying 500K houses are NOT on 50K a year.

Do you mean they earn more?? I'm not so sure. I obviosly don't know the real ins and outs of the other parent's earnings at the kids school but I only know a couple of people who would have jobs paying that. Many lower earners who bought more than 6 or 7 years ago. I think once the capital appreciation incentive has gone the idea of paying this sort of money will be less attractive, I know it is for me!!

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I have said this before, I think we will see many small bull traps on the way down. The common belief is that more money was lost following the great crash of 1929 than actually during it. The reason ? Many thinking they could 'bag a bargain' finding out later they had lost everything. Same thing has happened already in the last few years in the US.#

I see little reason to think we will somehow avoid all of this. Have a look at who is at the helm !!

He will guarantee everything gets very bad. He seems to have a knack for it.

Agreed-there will likely be a bull trap this spring for a lot of the UK, not just edinburgh. People think that just because a little of the froth of a 15 year bull run has been blown off that suddenly there is value out there after few months of falls.

A quick look at BoE approval figures and transaction rates will show that we are in the down slope of an acute house price crash. Bull traps are good for individuals that can hold their nerve. It shakes yet more silly money out of the system. As time goes on fewer and fewer buyers will have sold at the peak and memories of capital growth will be distant-that is when prices will settle and transactions pick up-as they did in the late 90s.

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Just looked at a Bungalow in Greenbank yesterday. Needs everything doing, electrics, plumbing etc etc etc etc etc

6 Notes of interest and closing on Friday after only being on the market for a month. Offers over £315k!

As the peak for these kinds of properties was about £500k or just over, and this will take 50k to do up, or 100k including a loft conversion (it only has 3 bedrooms) seems like people are still willing to pay over £400k for a bungalow!

So another year or 2 to go I reckon!!

I will next look at a house in January 2010!!!

I don't understand why people are so interested when there is a 4 bed one fully done up and fixed at 395k.

http://www.espc.co.uk/Buying/266544.html

It's been on the market for a long time, they'd probably accept quite a bit less for it.

What is it with these idiots who will pay through the nose for a property 'with potential'!?

It reminds me of that 3 bed one on Greenbank Crescent that sold for 550K last year. It needed everything doing, including the loft. Madness.

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I don't understand why people are so interested when there is a 4 bed one fully done up and fixed at 395k.

http://www.espc.co.uk/Buying/266544.html

It's been on the market for a long time, they'd probably accept quite a bit less for it.

What is it with these idiots who will pay through the nose for a property 'with potential'!?

It reminds me of that 3 bed one on Greenbank Crescent that sold for 550K last year. It needed everything doing, including the loft. Madness.

Wrong end of Greenbank!! Thats why! Done up by a developer who was wishing they hadnt bothered!!

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Aha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

After my depression of earlier on it has been mentioned in another thread that some solicitors are insisting on people noting interest to get the home report. So 6 notes of interest may not result in any offers.

Any experiences? Does it vary between solicitors?? (And why do people in Scotland train for years as a solicitor and then flog houses anyway??!!, South of the border they call them Estate Agents, and anyone can do conveyancing!)

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Guest An Bearin Bui
A quick look at BoE approval figures and transaction rates will show that we are in the down slope of an acute house price crash. Bull traps are good for individuals that can hold their nerve. It shakes yet more silly money out of the system. As time goes on fewer and fewer buyers will have sold at the peak and memories of capital growth will be distant-that is when prices will settle and transactions pick up-as they did in the late 90s.

The spring bounce is exactly what needs to happen unfortunately for there to be any future value in the market. If there is no spring bounce to shake the last remaining bulls (or scared cash-rich bears) out of their hiding places then we'll never have price discovery. There needs to be a wave of sales to tempt sellers back to the market and to set new price levels.

It is a monumentally boring process though and I, for one, am getting tired of being cleverer than thou, holding my nerve on the sidelines, playing some secret poker game. It's a rock and a hard place situation: I don't want to jump into the market because I know I'll lose money if I buy now but equally I'm fed up renting and saving. This is why there should have been properly managed lending and regulation to stop the bubble getting so badly out of control. It's one thing to have a bubble in tech stocks but a housing bubble is very detrimental and its effects are long-lasting. People are too emotionally attached to houses which makes for a very inefficient, complex market. That's why houses shouldn't be objects of financial speculation but should just be somewhere to live or, at most, viewed as a type of steady savings account.

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Aha!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

After my depression of earlier on it has been mentioned in another thread that some solicitors are insisting on people noting interest to get the home report. So 6 notes of interest may not result in any offers.

Any experiences? Does it vary between solicitors?? (And why do people in Scotland train for years as a solicitor and then flog houses anyway??!!, South of the border they call them Estate Agents, and anyone can do conveyancing!)

Well back to the depression, just phoned the solicitor and they are emailing me over the home report! So there really are 6 people with notes of interest on this, I suppose that doesnt mean 6 offers though. Will see what happens!

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Of course we could have complete financial breakdown - however if that happens money/property is not the biggest worry.

This is scarily looking more and more likely every day. What are you guys are doing with your house buying cash? Is it all in a bank? I am seriously considering moving all of ours into gold!

Either that or just buy a smaller place mortgage free, now!

It's all getting very stressfull!

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This is scarily looking more and more likely every day. What are you guys are doing with your house buying cash? Is it all in a bank? I am seriously considering moving all of ours into gold!

Either that or just buy a smaller place mortgage free, now!

It's all getting very stressfull!

As fflump says, more things to worry about than money if things get that bad.

I have most of my cash in N S and I index linked certs. Not the greatest return but relatively safe and good in a deflationary or high inflation environment.

Bit in a pretty low earning cash ISA, but readily available if required - linked to my current account.

Dipped my toe in gold mining shares and shorting banks a while back. Well burnt so learned a good lesson.

'Invest' only what you can afford to lose. ;)

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As the peak for these kinds of properties was about £500k or just over, and this will take 50k to do up, or 100k including a loft conversion (it only has 3 bedrooms) seems like people are still willing to pay over £400k for a bungalow!

Does that not mean that prices have dropped 20% from peak? I for one am quite happy with that. This process is nowhere near through and you have to walk before you can run......

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Financial meltdown would lead to empty supermarkets, rioting, looting and marshall law.

Keeping you and yours safe and fed will be the only concern.

True, but after the dust settles and (hopefully) some sort of order is restored it would be nice to still own something tangible, if that's possible.

Otherwise we would be left with nothing.

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True, but after the dust settles and (hopefully) some sort of order is restored it would be nice to still own something tangible, if that's possible.

Otherwise we would be left with nothing.

How could you prove your house was yours ? It is all electronically registered now IIRC.

Everythign gos mad max, all system down, everything kaput.

If that happened I think the concept of 'owner occupier' would be out the window - literally.

Of course if things just get quite bad then having a tangible asset would be a good thing IMO.

All guesswork. In 5 years you could look back at buying gold as a great move. Alternatively you could look back and think "Why didnt I just keep it all in cash?".

It is a lottery. :rolleyes:

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