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Uk House Prices To Crash 45%


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Which figures? Nationwide's?

Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Senior Economist, said:

"The 3-month on 3-month rate of change, a smoother indicator of the short-term trend in prices, improved for the fourth consecutive month from -4.2% in December to -4.0% in January."

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This is the kind of ******** that pisses me off.

We're down 20% on a mix adjusted basis according to those that put the indices together.

I live in the South East of England and am praying for a crash to secure the future for my family.

Now I'm not saying prices won't decline. I'm saying that a nice 4 bedder won't lose 45% of it's value.

"We're down 20% on a mix adjusted basis" ......just be patient 20% in what 18 months is perfectly acceptable , what did you expect 50% down in 12 months ?

Why call yourself 'grillsbears' ........if as you write "am praying for a crash"......it just doesn't fit sunshine .

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Commenting on the figures Martin Gahbauer, Nationwide's Senior Economist, said:

"The 3-month on 3-month rate of change, a smoother indicator of the short-term trend in prices, improved for the fourth consecutive month from -4.2% in December to -4.0% in January."

That's alright then, that only equates to 16% annually.

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There are some nice places in Surrey, and they are falling just as fast as the rest of the country

The latest derivative numbers from TFS (page 3)

http://www.tfsbrokers.com/pdf/RISK&MAN...2009/feb-09.pdf

Yes, I'll site Kingswood again. One house I was tracking went on at £1.6m and eventually sold for £900k

There are numerous other properties in the same boat in the area.. So 45% down has already happened in some parts of Surrey,

Edited by mikelivingstone
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It's not going to get any better for you over the course of the next 6 months, your new friends will soon vanish back into the pond they crawled out of and you will be left on your on again.

Great.

They all come out now they have a few figures in the papers behind them. Where have they been for the last 6 months? I've had a right hammering on here. :lol:

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"We're down 20% on a mix adjusted basis" ......just be patient 20% in what 18 months is perfectly acceptable , what did you expect 50% down in 12 months ?

Why call yourself 'grillsbears' ........if as you write "am praying for a crash"......it just doesn't fit sunshine .

Don't over analyse old chap. The name is simply an homage to the frog eating mountain climbing nutcase. Admittedly it would make a better moniker for a bull. But a bull I am not.

I'd have taken 50% in two weeks if it was offered.

My concern is simply this, Previous crashes have not seen coordinated actions to prevent them. This one has. Now Gordon and pals may be pissing in the wind but they are pissing our money awy. You sure it's not going to work?

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Don't over analyse old chap. The name is simply an homage to the frog eating mountain climbing nutcase. Admittedly it would make a better moniker for a bull. But a bull I am not.

I'd have taken 50% in two weeks if it was offered.

My concern is simply this, Previous crashes have not seen coordinated actions to prevent them. This one has. Now Gordon and pals may be pissing in the wind but they are pissing our money awy. You sure it's not going to work?

Nothing Gordon does actually works. In fact, it's a guaranteed FAIL.

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If Roger Bootle is right and certainly would not disagree with him, can you imagine what the balance sheet of the UK banking system will look like.

That's what I've been thinking for a while now.

Think about the size of the bailouts needed to overcome these losses

How will these bailouts affect the pound?

Proportionately, the UK's housing boom has been much larger than the eurozone's (taking the eurozone as a single area)

That's why I would rather hold euro than turdling

Edited by game over
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Right do you believe it'll get to £327250? I bloody don't.

That jacuzzi must be 'worth' at least 80 grand eh Bear Grills?

1 04/12/2007 £315,000 Det. F No Map 3, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

2 27/09/2007 £360,000 Det. F No Map 21, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

3 21/06/2007 £477,000 Det. F No Map 17, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

4 09/01/2007 £410,000 Det. F No Map 7, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

5 04/01/2007 £360,000 Semi F No Map 16, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

6 18/12/2006 £400,000 Det. F No Map 5, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

7 08/05/2006 £295,000 Det. F No Map 23, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

8 24/03/2006 £300,000 Det. F No Map 6, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

9 10/02/2006 £250,000 Det. F No Map 42, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

10 27/10/2005 £365,000 Det. F No Map 13, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

11 16/09/2005 £210,000 Det. F No Map 23, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

12 20/07/2005 £352,000 Semi F No Map 34, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

13 06/05/2005 £300,000 Det. F No Map 11, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

14 03/05/2005 £345,000 Det. F No Map 37, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

15 10/03/2005 £318,000 Det. F No Map 35, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

16 20/08/2004 £345,000 Det. F No Map 21, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

17 01/07/2004 £375,000 Det. F No Map 42, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

18 27/03/2003 £325,000 Det. F No Map 17, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

19 27/11/2002 £244,100 Det. F No Map 17, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

20 28/09/2001 £220,000 Det. F No Map 42, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

21 03/09/2001 £250,000 Det. F Yes Map 8, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

22 19/05/2000 £199,950 Det. F No Map 11, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GT Properties for sale near BN2 7GT

23 08/03/2000 £220,000 Det. F No Map 37, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

24 04/02/2000 £185,000 Semi F No Map 34, Cranleigh Avenue, Rottingdean, Brighton, Brighton And Hove, BN2 7GN Properties for sale near BN2 7GN

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My concern is simply this, Previous crashes have not seen coordinated actions to prevent them.

This one has. Now Gordon and pals may be pissing in the wind but they are pissing our money awy. You sure it's not going to work?

I don't need to be told about previous crash's as i bought/sold/bought in 1988-92 .

As for Brown , all his attempts SO FAR have failed , the market is correcting itself naturally , there is a bigger recession happening than last time , there is little appetite for debt amongst the sheep , LTV's are massive , GREED was a major driver when the market was booming , now as the market goes into reverse the greed has turnend to FEAR .. ........

.......great isn't it ....exciting times :D

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My concern is simply this, Previous crashes have not seen coordinated actions to prevent them. This one has. Now Gordon and pals may be pissing in the wind but they are pissing our money awy. You sure it's not going to work?

A very interesting point .. but do you remember what everyone told you if you DARED question that house prices were going to go up for ever. Everyone was SO convinced that "This time it's different". Well they were right .. this time it is different .. this bubble is bigger than any other bubble ..

It depends what you mean by "Work" ?

If "Work" means it restores house prices to 2007 levels and puts everything "Back to normal" then no it's not going to work.

If "Work" means it re inflates the bubble long enough to make an orderly decline it might work (But our children will find it very very expensive ..)

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Looks like the banks are beginning to come round to Bootle's way of thinking. Hence their huge

deposits now required when purchasing a house. 60-70% loan to values all round please.

What's so bizarre is - the banks could have worked all this out YEARS ago by applying something strangely rare - "Common Sense" - and worked out where house prices SHOULD be - and to where they would always be forced back to in the inevitable crash.

That "Common Sense" would have told them that, if you lend "money" to people to buy a property at a level higher than 3.5 x their real, truthful & verified annual income - you are being dishonest to yourself, to your "customers" and to your shareholders.

THEREFORE: UNLESS AND UNTIL "AVERAGE" HOUSE PRICES [real, truthful & verified INDEPENDENTLY] ARE EQUAL TO OR UNDER - AND NO HIGHER THAN 3.5 X INDIVIDUALS' AVERAGE ANNUAL INCOME [real, truthful & verified - NOTE - INDIVIDUAL]

........ then there is an inevitable/very high likelihood that there is going to be economic disaster at some point. That is where we are right now. As always, in all history, the inevitable oncoming disaster arising out of 'get rich quick' and Ponzi/Pyramid schemes is TOTALLY DENIED by all and sundry up until that point.

It really is that simple. Couldn't be simpler.

And, so, unless and until the Moneylenders learn this, this world will NEVER function to its full and proper potential. So many peoples' lives across the Western World and beyond are utterly ruined by the Moneylenders and other associated middlemen/vested interests' sheer selfishness and greed.

Worshipping the God of High House Prices is akin to Satanism.

I just wonder when all these @rsehole Vested Interests out there are going to understand this..... Oh well, they do of course, but they just don't care. Which is why they're @rseholes.

And it therefore follows, that unless and until the average house price in the UK is somewhere in the region of £60-75k - [YES - the average income is FAR lower than they're telling us] - we are just going to wallow around and NEVER turn this country around into a happy and fully productive place to live. The 'dog eat dog' mentality will prevail, and countless lives will be unhappy and unfulfilled.

Edited by eric pebble
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  • 442 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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