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Edinburgh: Espc January House Prices


geneer
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Down almost 6% year on year. Down 11% Q on Q.

That is a fair start for a City that is in denial in the extreme. Also these figures are about 6 months behind reality. EPSC are showing YOY falls of circa 13% and a drop so far form peak of circa 17%.

Also the RoS figures do not include any repossesion sales - which provide a far higher % of the total in a falling market than in a rising market.

Also the ESPC stats do not include any (Well maybe a few according to ESPC) sales from builders that contain large discounts.

Sales are down. according to both reports. by well over 50%.

I think from all this you can readch one simple conclusion. Whatever the VI's try to tell everyone - the housing market up here is every bit as ******ed as that down South.

:lol:

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CCC, registrar of scotland figures are the only figures that matter, they include ALL sales, including repo, auction, newbuild and the ASPC sales.

They show Edinburgh down less than 6% for 2008. And flats down less than 1%.

That's the facts, the only denial going on is yours...... :lol:

Your cherry picking of stats is quite pathetic. So Registrar figures are the only ones that matter Hamish ?

If that is the case then why have you been CONTINUALLY talking about ASPC figuires since you started commenting here 2 months ago ?

I think in Internet speak - you are PWNED.

;);)

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ccc keep calm, dont rise to the bait.

Anyway who cares what the stats say. The only thing that matters is the price of the house/flat you want to buy or sell.

All I know i that we are back to 2005 prices for the house that I want to buy. That is if I want to buy it now. Assuming HM isn't gonna start telling me that prices are on the up, I think I can safely say that it will either be the same price or less in 6 months time. I think personally that we will hit 30-40% off peak in the good areas of Edinburgh, or about the same as where they were in 2003.

We had an offer accepted in August 2005 and pulled out (yes it can be done in Scotland!) and then watched the prices go up. I can now buy the identical house in the next street for slightly less than the offer we had accepted, but will wait and get it cheaper later in the year. Also should be plenty of builders keen for work to do the bits we will need done.

In fact come to think of it we are already better off as we have had 3 years of earning more cash in interest even after tax than the rent we have paid.

So dont let HM wind you up!!

edited for spelling

Edited by roblpm
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Your cherry picking of stats is quite pathetic. So Registrar figures are the only ones that matter Hamish ?

They are certainly the most complete. They include all the categories. So not even you can try to spin them. As they are the only stats that include repo's, auctions, forced sales, ESPC sales, newbuilds..... How exactly is that Cherry picking?

If that is the case then why have you been CONTINUALLY talking about ASPC figuires since you started commenting here 2 months ago ?

Because I didn't have a source for the compiled ROS results until today. And also because I was commenting in the ASPC STATS thread......

I think in Internet speak - you are PWNED.

;);)

Far from it, but theres no doubt that you're still acting like a petulant troll.

Again, you try and distract from the hard numbers when they don't suit the excuses and fantasy and fiction that you have come up with in your distorted view of reality.

How often have you or the other uber-bears told us that prices are massively falling? And when the ESPC stats don't reflect it you claim it's the newbuilds. And when those stats don't reflect it you claim it's the repo's. And when those stats don't reflect it you claim it's because only more expensive places are selling.

And now that the registrar figures are out, which reflect the inclusion of all of these categories, and are even adjusted by category to prevent differences in property types from skewing the results, and they show only a 6% overall fall, and flats down by less than 1%, the only desperate response you have is to engage in ad hominem attacks........ Thats just utterly pathetic.

How many more bullsh1t excuses to justify your failed theory are you going to come up with? Why not just debate the facts as they stand?

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Hamish, what is striking is that this is the first time as far as I can see that the RoS have reported a YoY fall.

House prices are like an oil tanker, hard to turn the trend around. Might take a while but they are only going one way. Also in previous boom bust cycles the boom has been of similar length to the bust. 15 years to go??

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Down almost 6% year on year. Down 11% Q on Q.

That is a fair start for a City that is in denial in the extreme. Also these figures are about 6 months behind reality. EPSC are showing YOY falls of circa 13% and a drop so far form peak of circa 17%.

Also the RoS figures do not include any repossesion sales - which provide a far higher % of the total in a falling market than in a rising market.

Also the ESPC stats do not include any (Well maybe a few according to ESPC) sales from builders that contain large discounts.

Sales are down. according to both reports. by well over 50%.

I think from all this you can readch one simple conclusion. Whatever the VI's try to tell everyone - the housing market up here is every bit as ******ed as that down South.

:lol:

Too much reality for Hamish. The statistical gene pool these figures are being created from is so small the Scotsman is giving away free Banjos with the next edition. So pick up a copy Hamish and we can all do some flatpickin` when the price is right :lol::lol::P

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The total fall in flat prices, including new builds, year on year, is 0.9%.

I don't see -0.9% anywhere in RoS data. Where has HM got this figure from?

All the figures I can find (ESPC/Ros) look considerably 'worse' - And that chimes with the feeling on the ground here.

The froth is collapsing. The property glass has gone from overflowing to half empty.

The beer is going stale and evaporating. The party is over. Time for some rental Alka-Seltzer.

(My metaphorical bias seems to depend on what I've been up to most recently)

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I don't see -0.9% anywhere in RoS data. Where has HM got this figure from?

From the second link I posted, which breaks down all markets by property type.

Here it is again. http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/2009_02_tables.pdf

Click the link then scroll down to the flatted property section, then look for the full year result for Edinburgh. (which is -0.9%)

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From the second link I posted, which breaks down all markets by property type.

Here it is again. http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/2009_02_tables.pdf

Click the link then scroll down to the flatted property section, then look for the full year result for Edinburgh. (which is -0.9%)

You forgot to mention Edinburgh flats have dropped 6.4% in a single quarter. :lol:

Give us a shout if you want to understand how YOY figures work.

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You forgot to mention Edinburgh flats have dropped 6.4% in a single quarter. :lol:

Prices rise and fall from quarter to quarter in most years in Scotland. Thats why the Year on Year figure is the only way of comparing apples with apples, or the total loss for any given 12 month period whilst ignoring the natural seasonal fluctuations of the market.

It is in fact the ONLY way of measuring the true annual fall without misleading seasonal variances.

Give us a shout if you want to understand how YOY figures work.

Oh, go on then. Please explain it to me, oh wise one....... :rolleyes: (this should be fun)

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Prices rise and fall from quarter to quarter in most years in Scotland. Thats why the Year on Year figure is the only way of comparing apples with apples, or the total loss for any given 12 month period whilst ignoring the natural seasonal fluctuations of the market.

It is in fact the ONLY way of measuring the true annual fall without misleading seasonal variances.

Oh, go on then. Please explain it to me, oh wise one....... :rolleyes: (this should be fun)

Well Hamish, If house prices Rise say 12% in a year, then say crash 13% in about five minutes,

an estate agent can report -1% YOY. Then particularly feckelss sheeple can say, oh look, house prices have only fallen 1% and rush out to buy a house.

Or at least some of them could if they pushed cramps/granny down the stairs first.

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