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Edinburgh: Espc January House Prices


geneer
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So, what do you think Guys N Gals?

Will we see Januarys figures, or will ESPC continue with their cover-up? (presumably

believing that no news is better than bad news)

It may be counter productive for them to keep covering it up.

If they hit joe public with 3 months of "good" news in april, the sheeple will go bat-shit.

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So, what do you think Guys N Gals?

Will we see Januarys figures, or will ESPC continue with their cover-up? (presumably

believing that no news is better than bad news)

It may be counter productive for them to keep covering it up.

If they hit joe public with 3 months of "good" news in april, the sheeple will go bat-shit.

We are still missing November & December in the public domain, no reason to expect these crooks to spit out Jan figures in a hurry. Last report was on the 10th of November covering October 2008. We will have rely on our insider, fflump to divulge quarterly reports instead.

Edited by geed
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We are still missing November & December in the public domain, no reason to expect these crooks to spit out Jan figures in a hurry. Last report was on the 10th of November covering October 2008. We will have rely on our insider, *** to divulge quarterly reports instead.

No idea of what they've actually sold in the last month or so, but for what it's worth, the last Ref No of 2008 was around 272642 or thereabouts, and today the newest is around 273236, so it seems around 600 residents of Edin & Lothians (incl. some commercial and new-build sellers) feel confident enough to step up to the plate.....

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We are still missing November & December in the public domain, no reason to expect these crooks to spit out Jan figures in a hurry. Last report was on the 10th of November covering October 2008. We will have rely on our insider, fflump to divulge quarterly reports instead.

OK, I'll play the part of defender of ESPC. The 2008 Q4 report took a week or so to appear after the figures had been discussed in the press, but appear it did. There's also a report for November 2008 prices dated 10th December. You can find both of these at http://www.espc.com/MarketWatch.html. Previous monthly reports can be found here. You're right about there being no separate December figures, but they probably never sell many houses in December anyway.

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OK, I'll play the part of defender of ESPC. The 2008 Q4 report took a week or so to appear after the figures had been discussed in the press, but appear it did. There's also a report for November 2008 prices dated 10th December. You can find both of these at http://www.espc.com/MarketWatch.html. Previous monthly reports can be found here. You're right about there being no separate December figures, but they probably never sell many houses in December anyway.

I'll check them out, they have definitely not put them where previous monthly reports were kept (under news i think).

Edit; No, I was right the last report published on the 10th of November 08 was for October so we are don't have Nov, Dec & Jan figures. The link for the Oct report doesn't work anymore on their site either.

Edit(2)!; I see, they have desided to place the November report separate from all the othert monthly reports...clever that. Their site is a mess and the reports often come out in all sorts of formats....No more edits, promise.

Edited by geed
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I'll check them out, they have definitely not put them where previous monthly reports were kept (under news i think).

Edit; No, I was right the last report published on the 10th of November 08 was for October so we are don't have Nov, Dec & Jan figures. The link for the Oct report doesn't work anymore on their site either.

Edit(2)!; I see, they have desided to place the November report separate from all the othert monthly reports...clever that. Their site is a mess and the reports often come out in all sorts of formats....No more edits, promise.

Isn't the report for November on the page I pointed at earlier? Here's a direct link to the PDF: http://www.espc.com/espcpagemedia/MarketRe...THLY_200811.pdf. It doesn't say a great deal, but what it does say is pretty negative all round. I agree about the site being a mess though. The monthly reports are spread about in different places and have inconsistent names, so it's not easy to find them. I reckon we'll see the January figures in a week or so (if any houses have actually been sold , that is).

EDIT (now you've got me at it as well). Sorry, it looks like you did find the November 2008 report after all.

Edited by Scunnered
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The figures for November are available on this link:

http://www.espc.com/espcpagemedia/MarketRe...THLY_200811.pdf

The figures for December are covered as part of the quarterly report that available here:

http://www.espc.com/EspcPageMedia/Property...rts/2008-Q4.pdf

Please find attached (hopefully) the January release.

MONTHLY_200901.pdf

MONTHLY_200901.pdf

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Do you represent ESPC? Really?

Well, thanks for posting links. I'm very glad to see they're continuing with the monthly reports.

I apologise for my earlier comments.

But its not like house prices fell 12% in Nov, 4% dec and 1.2% january.

They're all YOY comparisons. The likely explanation for this is that house prices were saw toothing wildly 1 year ago.

It would be good to see break downs monthly.

As the quarterly figures show, the averages hide a lot of information.

For example http://www.espc.com/EspcPageMedia/Property...rts/2008-Q3.pdf

Its quite clear that the price increase for the more money than sense 4 bed townhouse mansions is drastically effecting the average figures.

I doubt very much that January actually saw +2.5% price increases for most property types in edinburgh.

Edited by geneer
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Overall a fair enough balance in tone IMO. Yes they mention a few slightly positive (actually less negative) signs but very openly contrast these with some pretty harsh negatives.

I suppose those who really want to read positive might just manage to do so. Those who want to read negative will find plenty to support them. And ultimately its up to the reader to take responsibility for thier own 'reading'.

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Doesn't this still give an effective 18% or thereabouts drop from end Q208 - effectively the Edinburgh peak. Also will this be skewed by all the new builds offering part exchange i.e. inflated px and inflated new build price being reflected in the figures?

You can't just add the monthly YOY falls up (which is what I think your doing).

During Q2 07 everage prices topped out at £227912.By my reckoning the average price is down 13% from peak.

Then again, as demonstrated the averages are heavily skewed by the high end properties.

Discussing changes in the rate of YOY falls is somewhat meaningless at the moment, as edinburgh saw big a jagged spikes this time last year.

Edited by geneer
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Hmmmmmmmm 277 sold in 1 month.

Until the volume picks up I dont see that the prices are really relevant?

Anyway I will now strike a new polite tone about the ESPC as it is great to see them engaging with us!! Surely much lower prices will keep some property solicitors in a job. I was talking to an ex solicitor the other week and it has been carnage apparantly.

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You can't just add the monthly YOY falls up (which is what I think your doing).

During Q2 07 everage prices topped out at £227912.By my reckoning the average price is down 13% from peak.

Then again, as demonstrated the averages are heavily skewed by the high end properties.

Discussing changes in the rate of YOY falls is somewhat meaningless at the moment, as edinburgh saw big a jagged spikes this time last year.

Nope I'd just looked at the average price at end Q208 and compared it to the average price now

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Doesn't this still give an effective 18% or thereabouts drop from end Q208 - effectively the Edinburgh peak. Also will this be skewed by all the new builds offering part exchange i.e. inflated px and inflated new build price being reflected in the figures?

Not in the ESPC figures - don't they handle mainly pre-owned, and the builders mainly sell their own wares?

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Not in the ESPC figures - don't they handle mainly pre-owned, and the builders mainly sell their own wares?

ESPC figures are based on resale properties that are advertised with ourselves. On the whole our figures do not include new build properties (there are exceptions such as at the end of the development a builder may ask an ESPC solicitor estate agent to market the last few properties). If it has appeared in the listings on espc.com and it sells, it will be included in our figures for the relevant month.

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ESPC figures are based on resale properties that are advertised with ourselves. On the whole our figures do not include new build properties (there are exceptions such as at the end of the development a builder may ask an ESPC solicitor estate agent to market the last few properties). If it has appeared in the listings on espc.com and it sells, it will be included in our figures for the relevant month.

Thanks - good to know.

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Here is a question for the ESPC:

Would you not like to see much lower property prices in order that transaction levels pick up?

Or would you rather see most of the property professionals in Edinburgh out of a job?

On traditional measures such as House Prices to Average Earnings or Rental Yield prices in Edinburgh are probably still 50-100% what they should be.

Coupled with a move back to traditional LTVs and lending multiples, ie 10% at the very least deposit and 3.5 times earnings we seem to have a long way down yet to go.

Or to put it more succinctly is it not time that the Estate Agents told vendors that they are never going to get bubble prices and talk the prices down? The longer it takes for prices to fall the less transactions there will be and the more ESPC members who go out of business!

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Nope I'd just looked at the average price at end Q208 and compared it to the average price now

So you did. Sorry 'bout that.

Just goes to show how spikey the edinburgh figures are.

I'd love to see the average price excluding the 4 bed townhouses.

In Q3 08 everything was negative apart from the town houses which were at +20%YOY.

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ESPC figures are based on resale properties that are advertised with ourselves. On the whole our figures do not include new build properties (there are exceptions such as at the end of the development a builder may ask an ESPC solicitor estate agent to market the last few properties). If it has appeared in the listings on espc.com and it sells, it will be included in our figures for the relevant month.

Yup, so essentially new-build sales (or lack of same) don't influence ESPC figures unduly - or as the previous poster put it - the figures aren't 'skewed' by part-exchanges or incentives on the new builds.

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Yup, so essentially new-build sales (or lack of same) don't influence ESPC figures unduly - or as the previous poster put it - the figures aren't 'skewed' by part-exchanges or incentives on the new builds.

it also means that espc wont reflect the tanking prices of new build flats.

these have been devestated in all major cities. Edinburgh will be no different.

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it also means that espc wont reflect the tanking prices of new build flats.

these have been devestated in all major cities. Edinburgh will be no different.

No, but the registrar of scotland will certainly reflect ALL property sales, including new builds....

http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/2009_02_release.pdf

Thats the end of year release, you can get individual breakdowns by area and property type on the site. Thanks to Bjm81 from the Aberdeen thread for the info.

Edited to add the link for the complete tables here...... http://www.ros.gov.uk/pdfs/2009_02_tables.pdf

Edited by HAMISH_MCTAVISH
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