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Killer Bunny
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I think the chance the UK will experience hyperinflation in the next 12 months, as Iceland did is significant, but not the most likely outcome, however big enough to insure against, the stores then would get empty very fast. I would seriously invest in a an extra refrigerator and buy some food, even stash box food, rice (50-100 kg should do) , so you have a good supply. Just buy something you like, buy so you have a 6 month supply of food, because you are going to have to eat it buy something eatable, not just cheap, if it don't materialize. I have not done anything special, I always have food for many months. But I know those who just have for a few days or a week, and that's plain naive. The next thing is inflation friendly stocks. Something that will handle that government bonds just crash, the rest you can have in cash.

These are random examples of inflation friendly stocks:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MYL#cha...ource=undefined

Any stock that shows a relationship like this with treasuries, is inflation friendly.

Edited by carseller
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Well it closed below the November low. Also, the weekly close is below 775 since, effectively, ever! Wow!

That bodes negative in due course ie we will have another leg down. Doesn't stop a rally in the meanwhile.

tech indicators, from what I read, indicate retail investors/traders hugely bullish therefore...

However, this market is hugely deviant. Some are saying the rally is coming. Others low 600s.

Not impossible low 600s by Friday in a massive clearout. Now THAT would be a buy point!

Monday will tell something - if it falls big and stays it'll probably do so every day in the week.

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There is 1 bull market left. It's fertilizer.

And things connected to the trend that drive it. Emerging market growth.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=JST#cha...ource=undefined

All these stocks in the 1000-1400 % club is still in a bull market. I think the dollar might fall through the floor, and that will prolong the boom in those things.

Edited by carseller
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It occurs to me too that yesterday was the last day of the month. Knowing that the fund manegsr couldn;t make any money in February they may have decided to aim fro a good motnh in March.

On the other hand, they probably realise now that their Q1 will be down so they could go for -ve again in March.

No answers just commentaries to go into the mix.

I do also note the MACD and RSI are hugely -ve / low on the monthly SPX and is lower than 2002/03!

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Having thought about it, I veer to the idea that this week will be another downweek. Closing below the Nov low indicates to me, at least, that lower is to come. A sector brings out redsults in US next week - is uit banks? Lots of econ data too.

10% fall to 650ish? Possible.

726 was the low Friday. That at least will be retested.

A sure sign of a (temp) bottom would be a major gap down, huge selling and massive negativity,with good rise by close of play. Nothing new there of course.

On verra.

Closing on a monthly below 775 (since effectively ever!) sets us up, in due course, for much lower. But rally in the meanwhile perfectly plausible.

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Something that's interesting is that oil and the dollar are rising together. I see that as a sign, that it's a signal the US economy is improving. But how can the US economy be improving when everything seems to out of whack? Oil tells that the economy is improving. How weird. I can imagine the driving season, and oil hitting 60-70 dollar or more.

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Hard to tell but my guess is that oil was simply massively oversold by the hot money. I doubt it had anything to do with the real economy.

As to the $, it appears to me the world has been recently buying the only 2 currencies to secure capital: $ in ST and gold for LT. Interestingly of course the latter apppears to have finished its ST run up, as I indicated earlier.

If stocks bottom out this week will $ top out...?

Edit typo

Edited by Financial Planner
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This was a shitty day. Since the nasdaq is still holding, I assume, that we could be around a low....But who knows really..It's looking kind of ugly now, a little like in november 21, only without the panic. Now it's the short sellers, and short covering that is completely dominating everything.

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I have been thinking some more about today, I sold some stuff today, and if I am right, it feels good, if I'm wrong, it don't feel as good. I am mixed, and in a little regret, I felt I took my risk from 66 % equities, to around 40 %. That means that Asia will do bad, Europe will to so so, improve to the end of the day as US futures probably opens UP, then the US will make a rebound tomorrow, not at the beginning, but especially later in the day as the shorts cover, something they are likely to do given the double bottom formation, as I am a terrible market timer. It's bound to start a bull market any time now, and some indicators are showing good signs, in the sense that they don't get worse or improve slightly. it's not the banks that's the problem, they are insolvent, yes, but that will be fixed if government bonds sell off and people borrow more as inflation takes hold. in 2003 our stock exchange was down at around 99, now it's at 207. The S & P 500 are at 1996 levels. Maybe the stimulus is to small. real estate in Norway have been going up for two months straight now. Total up around 5-6 % up in each of the last two months , and % in total for the last two months. monetary policy is similar to the US, but the inventory is much lower. Our central bank have warned people to take out fixed interest rate mortgages, as they see long term interest rates going higher. Very interesting indeed. The dollar to. it seems to be setting some sort of high now.

I am bullish on dry bulk shippers. Valuations is similar to November lows, but the outlook is much better now with the BDI at almost 3 times the level back then, so I should therefore think a rebound, is very possible, companies like dryships, comes to mind, the BDI was up today, but that was on no help for these shippers on a day like this.

Edited by carseller
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So far so good. Now it gets tricky - for me at least.

I'm thinking we may still get that big intra-day down spike reversal to clear out sellers and perhaps taking us down to around SPX 650 or so - but it also looks to me like it is set up for a reversal back up to around the 804 breakdown, or even higher. I've lightened up on the short-side now. I'm usually early but it's been pretty much all one-way and I don't think that will carry on much longer. I'm talking short-term here - no idea about any longer than that.

There are a couple of events which I think ought to be borne in mind - St. Patrick's day/week - we know what happened this time last year; and the G20 meeting - which would be a good target for the markets to work towards and pressure.

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Re My last post - in case anyone doesn't realise, I meant 741 not 941.

Markets still downtrending. Lots of complacency out there according to TA stats. Until there is a lot of fear and big selling and perhaps a big open down and close up day, the trend would appear to be down.

I never forecast FSTE to 2500 this time around.

I could see it going thereabouts after a rally. Of course the rally isn't upon us as yet. :(

I am truly shocked we are still heading down. We got our clients to take some action - can't give details.

Our 65% probability was that it would retest November low and turn back up again. Didn't happen. So we went to Plan B. Good to have plans in case of X or Y happening.

One of the fund managers we use (of whom I have great repsect) said he would buy at 3500, around 2 weeks ago. I honestly didn't think it was going to happen. He even said he 'might be a little optimistic with that'.

It's not fun that's for sure. Good luck one and all. Preserve your capital.

Whatever happens shortish term 600s or 800s we still believe there will be another leg down to the 500s by next year(who knows maybe even lower). Gulp! :blink:

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I don't think it get any worse than it have gotten lately, the reason is that the whole group of media "idiots", are all over how bad this is going to get, end of buy & hold, how the EU will go bust, how everything will go bad, we now how bad their track record are when they make predictions from before, I doubt it will be any different now. plus market's in the US is down 55 %. It's only once in history it have been worse. The norwegian market is down more than 62 %, it's the biggest decline in the norwegian market from 1900-2009.

I assume we will get a crack up boom, where long term treasuries rise, as a new trend. Asian economies will print money to stimulate their own domestic economies, instead of subsidizing the US. A bear market in treasuries, that can last 20-30 years, will for sure be extremely bullish for emerging economies, last time a bear market started, this guy started to invest in emerging economies, and that worked out well for him.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Templeton

technically the yen, and the dollar is in a weakening trend, especially the yen. That's bullish, treasuries are loosing value, that's bullish. The Swiss franc are forming a head and shoulder pattern, that's bullish, all in all many reasons to be bullish.

Today oil numbers will be released from the US, they will be bullish. I listened to geithners speech yesterday. They was going to start to tax fuel. That is bullish for alternative energy.

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Re My last post - in case anyone doesn't realise, I meant 741 not 941.

Markets still downtrending. Lots of complacency out there according to TA stats. Until there is a lot of fear and big selling and perhaps a big open down and close up day, the trend would appear to be down.

I never forecast FSTE to 2500 this time around.

I could see it going thereabouts after a rally. Of course the rally isn't upon us as yet. :(

I am truly shocked we are still heading down. We got our clients to take some action - can't give details.

Our 65% probability was that it would retest November low and turn back up again. Didn't happen. So we went to Plan B. Good to have plans in case of X or Y happening.

One of the fund managers we use (of whom I have great repsect) said he would buy at 3500, around 2 weeks ago. I honestly didn't think it was going to happen. He even said he 'might be a little optimistic with that'.

It's not fun that's for sure. Good luck one and all. Preserve your capital.

Whatever happens shortish term 600s or 800s we still believe there will be another leg down to the 500s by next year(who knows maybe even lower). Gulp! :blink:

QUOTE (Daft Boy @ Nov 24 2008, 10:48 AM) post_snapback.gifI think we will see a rally over the next few weeks to allow the bright boys to sell off before the big drop really starts. Reputations will be lost and made over the coming weeks. Good luck everyone.

We had the rally at the end of january. I did warn you FP . :( I have tried to warn other posters but they all seem to have a self destruct button.

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I just wonder, in this world we live in, if things really is going to drop 89 % like in the great depression. I am not saying it can't, but the dow was around 1000 in 1965, and a little below, at 800 in 1982 ,the dow was very cheap then. Right now we are at 6,7 times 1965, what about salaries between 1965 and now? I really don't think the dow is that expensive, for an 89 % drop, we would have to get to around 2 times the level in 1965, I certainly think that's overdone.

The nikkei was to around 1000 back then when the dow was around 1000 in 1965, it's just that the inflation in the seventies, made the Japanese stock market into a huge bubble for oversea investment that took off after 1982, and broke in 1989

Guys like Robert Prechter, while he is a fine technical analyst, he really don't have much common sense from how dire predictions he have made over the years that never came true.

I have not read his latest articles, but it would not surprise me, if he are soon calling for a bull market.

I have noticed that the ULTRA S & P, ETF, have now even gotten a larger market cap than the Ultrashort S & P 500.

mega-bear-quartet-extended-large.gif

Look at that graph, look at the nikkei. I KNOW, that the US stock market's and the nikkei is trading at the same valuations.

It's just that the nikkei blew up far worse than the US stock market's did. Since 2003 they have been trading at around the same levels.

dow-nikkei_4.png

So nikkei and dow are now at the same valuations, the US deflated through a war in iraq, and a inflation like bubble economy the last years, while japan did it the long and painful way. Japan are a creditor nation, less debt. Maybe Japan is a good buy.

Edited by carseller
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I have an idea. Tomorrow job numbers are not so terrible. Market opens down and it starts rising from 680. And rises. And rises... In fact it's the biggest bear market rally in history...just a thought

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