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Killer Bunny
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Sorry. My mistake. I just thought that at each point of trade, be it buy or sell, a prediction was being made of the future, be it five minutes or five years. I live and learn.

It depends what you mean by "prediction".

I don't believe you can predict the future. Thus is it about probabilites and risk/reward, not predictions. In the same way you have no idea what the next card will be in a game of poker, but you can position yourself according to probabilities. I accept there is no shortage of people, especially selling financial products, who give the impression the future can be predicted. I admit I'm not one of them.

http://www.indexindicators.com/charts/sp50...a-params-x-x-x/

Wayne's put/call ratio did indeed turn up as the SPX sold off (I've used the 10 day here) - It is getting close to the mean, so imo the risk of placing a trade is higher here. i.e. the market is more likely to go either way than it was when it was at it's extreme. Just my opinion. not prediction. ;)

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It depends what you mean by "prediction".

I don't believe you can predict the future. Thus is it about probabilites and risk/reward, not predictions. In the same way you have no idea what the next card will be in a game of poker, but you can position yourself according to probabilities. I accept there is no shortage of people, especially selling financial products, who give the impression the future can be predicted. I admit I'm not one of them.

/quote]

Guessing what the next card will be in a game of cards is just an informed guess and not a prediction which is far more accurate. I tend to use the following for my definition of a prediction. Its as good as any I suppose

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prediction

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I have feeling, the move in gold and silver is inflation, not fear of solvency. If that's so, then this could be the double bottom.

Inflation create a pillow for the market.

I think the DBA (food inflation graph), and the SLV, even the VNQ (REIT trust) etf, shows some signs of a bottom, because of the inflation seen in silver, that might drag the other sectors up.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SLV#cha...ource=undefined

Edited by carseller
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I have a good feeling about todays consumer confidence number from the US. I think it's likely to be up by a surprising degree and cause a rally.

You think they're going to make up a good number? :P

14:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (Dec) -18.3% -18.2%

15:00 US Consumer Confidence (Feb) 36.0 37.7

15:00 US Fed's Bernanke testifies

15:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) -48 -49

Consensus and previous readings to the right

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You think they're going to make up a good number? :P

14:00 US S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (Dec) -18.3% -18.2%

15:00 US Consumer Confidence (Feb) 36.0 37.7

15:00 US Fed's Bernanke testifies

15:00 US Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb) -48 -49

Consensus and previous readings to the right

I saw the crude inventory levels went down last week. That might be a sign something are happening. That's like the straw that I think could indicate some turn in the sentiment. I also think Obama have a stronger appeal to the black population, and that might influence the numbers.

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In July 2007, Prechter advised shorting U.S. stocks saying “aggressive speculators should return to a fully leveraged short position.” He yesterday recommended investors cover that position.

“The market is compressed,” Prechter said in the note published yesterday. “When it finds a bottom and rallies, it will be sharp and scary for anyone who is short. I would rather be early than late.”

Sensible. It's a major multi-year support. Whichever way it goes could be brutal.

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So far I think it's mostly things that relied on cheap credit and cheap energy, that are taking hits all the way back to 1980 levels it seems. It don't appear as the indexes as a whole will go there.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p19561982734

ADX (the red and green lines) are towards their outer extremes. You can see what has happened previously - Obviously they can go further and it's just an indicator etc etc....caveat caveat. Ditto stochastics. Trouble is these things can carry on for a while. It would be great to see volume sellers get flushed out here - it really helps the strength of a rally to have few sellers left.

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p19561982734

ADX (the red and green lines) are towards their outer extremes. You can see what has happened previously - Obviously they can go further and it's just an indicator etc etc....caveat caveat. Ditto stochastics. Trouble is these things can carry on for a while. It would be great to see volume sellers get flushed out here - it really helps the strength of a rally to have few sellers left.

It's a bit weird that the indexes goes up today, and things that normally goes down when treasuries increase in value as today, goes up.

It could suggest that this is a short covering rally, where people cover shorts and buy treasuries. I really don't know.

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Wow.

It didn't go below November which is a shame. That woulod have been nice. To ngo below then immediately rise. However, strong move from banks. Capt Obama talking tonight. The market appears to like what he will say - isn't it amazing they know? They know everything!

PMs hit very hard.

Could be after all the 30-50% multi month rally has started.

Maybe rise to 805 ythen back to 775 just to make sure then Clark Up Up and Away.

On verra

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I really feel this is dangerous, as things stand now, I am around 2/3 into stocks, but I wish it was 1/3.

It worries me, or Robert Prechter worries me, maybe he is right, that there will just be endless deflation more or less. He was the guru of the eighties, but have been wrong in predicting deflation ever since. Maybe this will be his time in the spotlight again.

Another thing that worries me, bill gates have been selling like stocks for 7-800 million, in Microsoft, even at pretty low levels, since October, exactly opposite of what his friend warren buffet have been writing about in the NY times, and he have not as I can see, really bought any significantly more for his cascade investments. So I must assume he is long cash.

You also kind of assume guys like Warren Buffet knows what they are doing. Maybe they don't. Maybe his strategy have worked for as long as lower interest rates have started new credit growth. And not in the situation know, so this don't worry about the macro stuff / value strategy, maybe it's not working in this environment, or that the value investor, will get slaughtered every 100 years or so, and that is this time.

Edited by carseller
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Many thanks for your words of wisdom. Price is price. It either goes up or down. That's it I'm afraid. There's no such thing as unchartered history. I think you're talking about predicting the future which is something entirely different. Astrology perhaps. I was seeking an historical perspective, which is the only thing a chart tells you. Enjoy your sailing! :)

Just like a sinking boat goes down, hits the bottom and never comes up again. Ignore trends things may never be the same again.

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Wow.

It didn't go below November which is a shame. That woulod have been nice. To ngo below then immediately rise. However, strong move from banks. Capt Obama talking tonight. The market appears to like what he will say - isn't it amazing they know? They know everything!

PMs hit very hard.

Could be after all the 30-50% multi month rally has started.

Maybe rise to 805 ythen back to 775 just to make sure then Clark Up Up and Away.

On verra

Wow :unsure:

Edited by Converted Lurker
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So it's been above 775 twice in 2 days but it comes straight back down again. Very interesting this appears to be the new major threshold..

As I have said I would have preferred the s&p to go below 741 then come right back up the same day.

Of course if it goes below and stays below then Plan B - 600s.

As ever, on verra.

I see the pisstakers ie Converted Lurker have joined this thread and just take the piss rather than actualy adding anything to the debate. Go away CL unless you have anything smart to say. What is it you do for a living again?

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So it's been above 775 twice in 2 days but it comes straight back down again. Very interesting this appears to be the new major threshold..

As I have said I would have preferred the s&p to go below 741 then come right back up the same day.

Of course if it goes below and stays below then Plan B - 600s.

As ever, on verra.

I see the pisstakers ie Converted Lurker have joined this thread and just take the piss rather than actualy adding anything to the debate. Go away CL unless you have anything smart to say. What is it you do for a living again?

I agree. I've got 780, 805,835 and then 875.

I'm still puzzled by the VIX and the VXO - Vix is trending up (10dma) but below for the last few days despite the lows. VXO is trending up (10dma) and above trendline, but they're both very "relaxed" considering where we're at. I can only really read this as a bullish divergence but I'd rather see the price and the indicators show some consistency. I guess it reflects the indecision at these major support levels.

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One of the ways to play this market is simply, a wild strategy, etc, just look for shares that are selling below a dollar or 50 cents, buy a good stash of each, and just keep them, important to buy many different, some go bankrupt, others do great, maybe 9 of 10 survive, who knows.don't look at the numbers:)

a possible way to analyze it is that lower oil price, because of a weak US hurts the Russian market, but gives the Chinese a boost.

er why not just use TA and forget the fundamentals, you know; MA, EMA, golden cross, pivots - daily, weekly, monthly...? planning entries exits etc? Hardly rocket science is it. Sometimes the debate on where the market is headed leaves me cold, why bother, simply trade what you see...

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I can't believe I have been missing this thread.

So what is the optimal investment strategy? No idea, but I have roughly the following:

70% Sterling in what is now a low interest rate account. Why I didn't just shift the whole lot into Yen, I don't know as I was telling people 2 years ago the Yen was undervalued. But I guess it is my STR fund and so is growing relative to houses.

20% in a fairly safe and well managed pension fund, 60% overseas and so it as been somewhat protected by sterling's fall.

5% in other shares - this have been totally mullered, except for BP, though I have as strange feeling my 80% down prospect epicure jreits are going to go back up at some point

5% in gold, that I hold physically.

Edited by mikelivingstone
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