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Killer Bunny
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I think it made it 7/7 didn't it? But everyone is still so sure of sub 5500, and $10 oil

It did yep. Which pretty much tallies with prior outperformances in 3-6 months post price dislocations (in this case Aug 24). That has now worked off.

In terms of FTSE I suspect the momo money isnt likely to come back in until FTSE regains 200 sma and it seems likely that we will need to work off the high values from Q2 2015 in te 200sma to see that happen convincingly. So perhaps May/June time. Then we will see where we are. Also, after such a prolonged period below 200sma it typically takes several attempts to regain the 200 and the first couple may see retracements initially (I think I covered myself sufficiently there!).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FTSE&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p83656276131

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75% of SPX 500 stocks now trading above 50 day ma versus just 10% in Jan.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93587487558

But only 44% of SPX 500 stocks trading above 200 day ma versus 20% at Jan lows. Plenty of upside room left in due course.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA200R&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09729182976

so far still looks v similar to 2011 sell off.

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Yup. Prob good for 5-10% in the major indices.

You will not believe what the market will do in 2016. Batten hatches. Buy USTs. Or be a schmuck and listen to RK. Oh dear.

Yup 2025/75 remains the resistence on S&P. Unlikely to be breached. Clear sell / short area. If breached then stop is 2150.

If not breached then expect sub 1600.

Gold likely taking breather here. Does look as if bottom has been seen. Will know if get a higher low. Already have higher high.

Silver better buy now. Miners.

USTs in minor correction. Intermer and long term mega bull continues.

Oh and sell property...

Edited by Killer Bunny
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Yup 2025/75 remains the resistence on S&P. Unlikely to be breached. Clear sell / short area. If breached then stop is 2150.

If not breached then expect sub 1600.

Gold likely taking breather here. Does look as if bottom has been seen. Will know if get a higher low. Already have higher high.

Silver better buy now. Miners.

USTs in minor correction. Intermer and long term mega bull continues.

Oh and sell property...

Your 30th Jan post stating "5-10% upside in major indices" resulted in an immediate 600 point FTSE sell off with no upside.

how much did you charge your clients for that gem of insight?

Chart so readers can judge you on your actual calls rather than your unsubstanstiated ad-homs

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FTSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p96688467332

Feel free to quote any of my posts (I know you wont because either you are incapable or they dont support your ad-homs). I quote yours because they speak for themselves (and not in a good way unfortunately for you)

Btw, wheres this "imminent recession" you promised months ago?! (9th December to be exact - 3 months ago!)

Edited by R K
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Yup 2025/75 remains the resistence on S&P. Unlikely to be breached. Clear sell / short area. If breached then stop is 2150.

If not breached then expect sub 1600.

Gold likely taking breather here. Does look as if bottom has been seen. Will know if get a higher low. Already have higher high.

Silver better buy now. Miners.

USTs in minor correction. Intermer and long term mega bull continues.

Oh and sell property...

Just for fun let's deconstruct the above post:-

2025/75 remains the resistence on S&P.

axiomatic since price is below 2025/75. is it 2025? or 2075? Selection criteria?

Unlikely to be breached. Clear sell / short area. If breached then stop is 2150.

Unlikely? Probability? based on?

Clear sell / short area.

Clear on what criteria/metric? Clear to whom? What is meant be area? Short at 2025 or 2075?

If breached then stop is 2150.

So what is the short target? Since short is initiated at 2025 stop is 6.2% (before costs etc) away. i.e. loss will be 6.2% What is profit target? What is timeframe?

If not breached then expect sub 1600.

if 2025 is not breached? or 2075? Which? Why expect sub 1600? Criteria? Timescale? how far below 1600? 1599? 1?

Gold likely taking breather here.

how likely? % probability? Based on what? Define breather. Timescale? volatility? Then what? Define "here? Price at time of post? +/-?

Does look as if

To whom? Criteria?

bottom has been seen.

which bottom? Last week? 3 years? All time? The all time low is in forever? Really? Wow. So this is a one way bet yeh?

Will know

Know? You mean with 100% certainty? wow. Thats impressive. Wish I knew the future with 100% certainty too.

if get a higher low.

Criteria? price? higher than what? timeframe?

Already have higher high.

Than what? $1920? Really? No? Oh......some other price then? 2015? 2014? 2013? 2012? 2011? Seems a little vague.....

Silver better buy now.

Because? Metric? how much does this better buy cost? Now as opposed to when? Why now?

Miners.

Not really a sentence with any meaning is it.

USTs in minor correction.

Criteria? Define minor? Define correction? Any particular duration?

Intermer and long term mega bull continues.

Metric? Until?

Oh and sell property...

Define property? Country? Location? Commercial? Residential? Criteria? Timeframe? Price target? Live where!? When did we buy property, I dont recall being advised to buy any.

As I say, just a bit of fun. I wouldnt listen to me unless youre a schmuck........

Edited by R K
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10 yr USTs homing in on likely peak at c 2.1%

Resistance on s&p clear at 2025-2075, stop 2150

If tops out there, sub 1600 targeted this year.

1000/1200 by 2017? On verra.

Oil can go up to late 40s with EMs. Then likely $ stops correcting.

On verra. Most of this on twitter account for detail.

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Looks to be set up for a major reversal tomorrow/Monday all else equal. What happens betwixt now and then is anyones guess

#foolcast

Billy bullsh1tters talk about "if this" "if that", "stops" and "drinking their own blood"

Real traders nail it in realtime.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FTSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p78395721617

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Looks to be set up for a major reversal tomorrow/Monday all else equal. What happens betwixt now and then is anyones guess

#foolcast

Fabulous run up from 11/2 as per #foolcast

SPX

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p33607987557

FTSE

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FTSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p94125147807

Im taking that irrespective of FED yday & possibility of any further run up

Bonds of course were a terrible investment over this period

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p54242336882

Edited by R K
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07815710182

Lowest VIX since early November.

4th Jan SPX open (2016 high) was 2038.20

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p65471681059

What happened to all that meedya stuff about China collapse & oil price collapse from Jan?

Edited by R K
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Eight years in, and Warren Buffett is holding strong. The Oracle of Omaha is up against a team of hedge funders from the Big Apple. And he’s winning.

At Berkshire Hathaway’s 2007 shareholder meeting, Buffett, the Berkshire Chairman and CEO, offered to bet any taker $1 million that over ten years and after fees, the performance of an S&P index fund would beat ten hedge funds that any opponent might choose.[1] Protégé Partners, which oversees funds-of-hedge-funds, anted up.

Buffett’s motivation? To make the case for low-cost buy-and-hold investing, a theme he has explored in his shareholder letters with a parable about the “Gotrocks.” The Gotrocks own all of corporate America. They grow wealthier as businesses produce profits and distribute dividends. Some family members try to amplify their share of corporate America’s investment returns with the aid of high-cost “helpers” and aggressive strategies. Their efforts fall short, and fees begin to grind the Gotrocks fortune into pebbles.

Buffett knows from his own experience that it’s not impossible to outrace Mr. Market, of course. He just knows that it’s challenging, especially if you’re dragging a high-fee anchor.

Protégé Partners hopes to demonstrate that “funds of funds with the ability to sort the wheat from the chaff will earn returns that amply compensate for the extra layer of fees their clients pay.”[2] They picked five carefully vetted funds-of-funds, rather than ten, to make their case.

Game on!

The battle was joined on January 1, 2008. It concludes on December 31, 2017. With two years to go, Buffett has a comfortable lead. Fortune reports that at the end of 2015, Buffett’s bet had returned a cumulative 65.67%. The average return of the Protégé picks stood at 21.87%.

http://vanguardblog.com/2016/03/09/buffetts-bet/?utm_content=sf22552364&utm_medium=spredfast&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=Personal+Investor&cid=sf22552364&sf22552364=1

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Mo

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-03-25/why-investors-face-roller-coaster-markets

  1. Pronounced fluctuations within the trading range reflect primarily the tug of war between a weakening global economy and continuing liquidity injections from central banks and corporate balance sheets.
  2. The fluctuations are accentuated by patchy market liquidity: On the way up, prices overshoot levels warranted by the exceptional funding that markets obtain. That backing includes the monetary stimulus programs of central banks (notably the Bank of Japan, the European Central Bank and the People’s Bank of China), as well as the deployment of corporate cash for share repurchases, higher dividend payouts and mergers and acquisitions. On the way down, prices fall below what would otherwise prevail on the basis of fundamentals.
  3. This behavior is likely to continue in the short-term, shifting the opportunities for higher monthly/quarterly returns away from conventional strategic long-term portfolio positioning and toward more short-term trading and volatility trades.
  4. Because today's markets are heavily influenced by the direct and indirect involvement of central banks, correlations among asset classes are less reliable, weakening the effectiveness of risk mitigation through traditional portfolio diversification. Although it remains necessary, such diversification is no longer sufficient to ensure effective risk management. Accordingly, fluctuating cash levels not only provide agility for tactical positioning but also act as a risk mitigator.
  5. Over time, the trading range is more likely to get wider than smaller. As this occurs, the probability of either a policy mistake or a market accident will increase. And even absent these two disruptive developments, the range itself will become increasingly fragile as its gets wider.
  6. It is too early to determine with certainty whether the eventual dismantling of the trading range will result in an upward or downward breakout. Much will depend on the policy responses in the systemically important economies in Asia, Europe and North America.
  7. A constructive policy response would require a transition from the excessive reliance on central banks to a set of policies that reinvigorates growth engines, deals with aggregate demand imbalances, addresses excessive pockets of indebtedness and makes progress in completing regional and global economic/financial architectures (which also would counter the rise of political extremes on both sides of the Atlantic). If this approach were successful, range-bound trading would yield to genuinely higher financial asset prices that are firmly supported by strengthening fundamentals.
  8. But the more this policy handoff is delayed, and the greater the political polarization, the higher the probability of notably lower markets that, in turn, would risk contaminating economic fundamentals and making the politics even messier.

My bold.

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Ms Yellen may be about to get her bluff called. At least in the near term. Todays pop doesnt look sustainable.

#foolcast

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75% of SPX 500 stocks now trading above 50 day ma versus just 10% in Jan.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA50R&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93587487558

But only 44% of SPX 500 stocks trading above 200 day ma versus 20% at Jan lows. Plenty of upside room left in due course.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPXA200R&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p09729182976

so far still looks v similar to 2011 sell off.

Now 93% & 59% respectively. Quite a move.

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Bill on the nominal output challenge

https://www.janus.com/bill-gross-investment-outlook?utm_campaign=Bill%20Gross%20Feb%20IO&utm_medium=social%20&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=Bill_Gross_Feb

The reality is this. Central bank polices consisting of QE’s and negative/artificially low interest rates must successfully reflate global economies or else. They are running out of time. To me, in the U.S. for instance, that means nominal GDP growth rates of 4-5% by 2017 – or else. They are now at 3.0%. In Euroland 2-3% - or else. In Japan 1-2% - or else. In China 5-6% - or else. Or else what? Or else markets and the capitalistic business models based upon them and priced for them will begin to go south. Capital gains and the expectations for future gains will become Giant Pandas – very rare and sort of inefficient at reproduction. I’m not saying this will happen. I’m saying that developed and emerging economies are flying at stall speed and they’ve got to bump up nominal GDP growth rates or else. Cross your fingers. Zeno’s paradox was a mathematical twist only and the artificial/ negative interest rate world created by central bankers has similar logic. The real market and the real economy await a different conclusion as losses from negative rates result in capital losses, not capital gains. Investors cannot make money when money yields nothing. Unless real growth/inflation commonly known as Nominal GDP can be raised to levels that allow central banks to normalize short term interest rates, then south instead of north is the logical direction for markets.
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Posted this from Mo:

A constructive policy response would require a transition from the excessive reliance on central banks to a set of policies that reinvigorates growth engines, deals with aggregate demand imbalances, addresses excessive pockets of indebtedness and makes progress in completing regional and global economic/financial architectures (which also would counter the rise of political extremes on both sides of the Atlantic). If this approach were successful

What a load of complete gibberish from Mo, a wish list without the first idea how to achieve anything mentioned. The remainder of the points are not much better. At Least Bill's missive is a bit more crunchy (whether its right or not).

Talking head.

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What a load of complete gibberish from Mo, a wish list without the first idea how to achieve anything mentioned. The remainder of the points are not much better. At Least Bill's missive is a bit more crunchy (whether its right or not).

Talking head.

Not really. Bog standard fiscal/monetary argument. Theyve both been banging that drum for at least last 5 years. Ditto Bernanke et al.

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#Foolcast for this current (almost imperceptible so far) equity correction to end around Thursday/Friday this week.

If it goes a bit turbo like January then will revise as we go.

So that unusual (imo) pop on Wednesday (FTSE, not so much SPX) somewhat confuses the picture with volatility falling again.

Not a buyer here. Waiting for a better priced entry point like 20/1

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