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Killer Bunny
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Media commentator contra-indicators abound but this one is as good as any other

Paul Mason ‏@paulmasonnews 45m45 minutes ago

As 3rd boom-bust cycle gathers momentum, this time its different. Unfortunately. Blog: http://blogs.channel4.com/paul-mason-blog/governments-tackle-unsustainable-global-economic-trends/4336

CZPZUSEWcAAGjC9.png

I find long drawn out posts on 'We are facing another global financial catastrophe...' thread in the main forum a good contra-indicator.

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Can the FTSE 100 really slide towards 5000 and south-east property prices continue to increase by 10% a year? It looks like either a buying opportunity or a crying opportunity.

Equities in bear market since last Spring. So yes to first question and nobto second.

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Equities in bear market rally. Take the opportunity to lighten/empty longs.

Clear downtrend in equities and clear uptrend in quality govt bonds.

Commodities looking increasingly long term interesting.

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On a similar theme Chinese equities looking very similar to silver bubble in H1 2011

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SSEC&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57826309185

and silver.......

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SILVER&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80293763982

and as hotairmail points out, the spillover effects into Hong Kong

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HSI&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p62971518767

#Thebigshort

Easy. Innit.

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Equities in bear market rally. Take the opportunity to lighten/empty longs.

Clear downtrend in equities and clear uptrend in quality govt bonds.

Commodities looking increasingly long term interesting.

Yup. Prob good for 5-10% in the major indices.

You will not believe what the market will do in 2016. Batten hatches. Buy USTs. Or be a schmuck and listen to RK. Oh dear.

Edited by Killer Bunny
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Yup. Prob good for 5-10% in the major indices.

You will not believe what the market will do in 2016. Batten hatches. Buy USTs. Or be a schmuck and listen to RK. Oh dear.

Why, what did he say?

and how can you "lighten/empty longs" which you dont own because you would "rather drink your own blood?"

Very strange portfolio planning advice from a certified financial planner

Edited by R K
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Some nice data from Aswath

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.co.uk/2016/02/january-2016-data-update-8-pricing-with.html

The global equity markets collectively lost $5.54 trillion in value during the month, roughly 8.42% of overall value. The global breakdown of value also reflects some regional variations, with Chinese equities declining from approximately 17% of global market capitalization to closer to 15%. To the question of how the month measures up against the worst months in history, the good news is that there have been dozens of months that delivered worse returns in the aggregate. In fact, the US equity market's performance in January 2016 would not even make the list of 25 worst months in US market history, all of which saw double-digit losses or worse or even the 50 worst month list.

As investors, we often feel the urge to extrapolate from small slices of market history, and I am sure that there will be some who see great significance in the last month's volatility. They will dredge up temporal anomalies like the January effect to explain why stocks are doomed this year and that if Denver wins the Super Bowl, it is going to be catastrophic for investors. I am not willing to make that leap. What I learned from January 2016 is that stocks are risky (I need reminders every now and then), that market pundits are about as reliable as soothsayers, that the doomsayers will remind you that they "told you so" and that life goes on. I am just glad the month is over!

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Indeed, with financial bubbles growing, the nature of financial risk morphing, inequality worsening, and non-traditional – and in some cases extreme – political forces continuing to gain traction, the calming influence of unconventional monetary policies is being stretched to its limits. The prospect that such policies will be able to keep the economic engines humming, even at low levels, looks increasingly dim. Instead, the world economy seems to be headed for another crossroads, which I expect it to reach within the next three years.

This may not be a bad thing. If policymakers implement a more comprehensive response, they can put their economies on a more stable and prosperous path – one of high inclusive growth, declining inequality, and genuine financial stability. Such a policy response would have to include pro-growth structural reforms (such as higher infrastructure investment, a tax overhaul, and labor retooling), more responsive fiscal policy, relief for pockets of excessive indebtedness, and improved global coordination. This, together with technological innovations and the deployment of sidelined corporate cash, would unleash productive capacity, producing faster and more inclusive growth, while validating asset prices, which are now artificially elevated.

The alternate path, onto which continued political dysfunction would push the world, leads through a thicket of parochial and uncoordinated policies to economic recession, greater inequality, and severe financial instability. Beyond harming the economic wellbeing of current and future generations, this outcome would undermine social and political cohesion.

There is nothing pre-destined about which of these two paths will be taken. Indeed, as it stands, the choice is frustratingly impossible to predict. But in the coming months, as policymakers face intensifying financial volatility, we will see some clues concerning how things will play out.

The hope is that they point to a more systematic – and thus effective – policy approach. The fear is that policies will fail to pivot away from excessive reliance on central banks, and end up looking back to the new normal, with all of its limitations and frustrations, as a period of relative calm and wellbeing.

Sounds about right.
Read more at https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-end-of-the-new-normal-by-mohamed-a--el-erian-2016-02#PlXmaqkD21w1PpMA.99

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another major bond mispricing keyed off oil. Market still doesnt get its mostly a supply story.

Bonds starting to look generationally mis-priced similarly but opposite to early 80s mispricing.

That said Mario needs to "do something" re EZ bank fears before it spirals out of his control.

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Meb Faber mean reversion article from May 2010

http://mebfaber.com/2010/05/25/mean-reversion-or-the-return-of-the-bear-or-how-about-a-july-and-august-rally/

My research has shown that negative returns 2 and 3 years ago produce approximately 6% outperformance in the current year. If you are lucky enough to have 3 down years in a row, the outperformance jumps to well over 10%. (Supported heavily by the academic literature.)

On the monthly time frame, I examined asset class performance after a really bad month.

The take-aways from this study were:

– It does not pay to buy an asset class after a really bad month for the following 1 month.

– 12 Months later the return is not much different than average.

– 3 and 6 month returns, however, are stronger. You pick up on average about 3-4% abnormal returns buying after a terrible month.

A simple strategy would be:

After an asset class has a terrible month, wait a month then take a 2 month position. i.e. after this (probably) terrible month, buy July 1 for a two month hold. Those with a little longer time frame could move out to a 5 month hold.

It looks like a good “trigger” for equity like asset classes is around -10%, and for bonds around -4%. That equates to about the worst 2% of all months. The worst 5% of all months is around a -7% trigger for equities and -3% for bonds.

Below is a summary chart of this strategy for the five asset classes I mentioned in my paper. The returns are simply the excess returns (nets out the average monthly return over the entire time period) to a strategy of buying an asset class a month after a really bad month, with a two month hold.

Note that this does not work for the commodity index, and one could speculate that is due to differing risk premiums and sources of return to that asset class.

study.jpg

- See more at: http://mebfaber.com/2010/05/25/mean-reversion-or-the-return-of-the-bear-or-how-about-a-july-and-august-rally/#sthash.LG7QDOsS.dpuf

Not dissimilar in fact to my buy the dip on a 3-6 mth timeframe except he is using monthly data

So lets review what actually happened following August 24th China crash Black Monday:-

FTSE - Every month closed up with months 2 & 3 (Oct/Nov) best performers

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FTSE&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80209302484

S&P500 even better (benchmark for article)

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50922799955

I count only 6 (very minor) drawdown days

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A Evans-Pritchard @AmbroseEP 7h7 hours ago Houston, TX

Fed's Fischer: "Seen similar periods of volatility in recent years- H2 2011-that left little imprint on economy, still early to judge"

A Evans-Pritchard @AmbroseEP 7h7 hours ago Houston, TX

Fed's Stanley Fischer unapologetic at @CERAWeek dinner. "Spending indicators we have for Jan point to pickup in economic growth this quarter

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FTSE +8% in 4 days

Paul Mason still blathering on about oil prices on C4 news.

Make that 10%

On the way to 7 out of 7 (100%) monthly closes above Aug 24th China panic low.

Mr Mason added to list of my favourite media contra-indicators.

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