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Killer Bunny
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Indeed amazingly similar. Do we now get lift off as disappointment abounds after Draghi failed to deploy the big bazooka.

See what happens post-FED but worth keeping close eye on.

Data shows 3 & 6 month returns following a price dislocation pretty decent, with a dip in middle months.

Edited by R K
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Haha! I was at work earlier so couldn't see what video you'd posted.

I think rises are more likely than falls, but was just curious what the bears thought (I know alot on here are expecting equities to fall and would be interested to know how much they're expecting).

I'm not really expecting much lower than the present price in this downturn. There is always the unpredictable that could cause forward downward pressure, primarily Brent at sub $40 and ISIS.

The great dislocation between the UK and global markets is getting even more stark with both the DOW and DAX not far from achieving new peaks. Very surprised at the pre-market as we stand, would have thought the DOW's stellar performance on Friday would have taken the FTSE to around the 6350 mark.

http://www.ig.com/uk/indices-trading

Don't understand the shorts philosophy at the moment, attacking the one and perhaps only global asset that actually offers some value. As someone has already mentioned if the FTSE was based on house prices since the turn of the century then we would be at about 25,000 by now. It we would be over 10,000 in anything else.

In a world where mispricing of assets on the downside is extremely rare we should be grateful that there is an opportunity like this. I'm a cautious Bear, however, and the 15% or so I have in the Market is as far as I would gamble on anything. I like cash.

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Everyone (!!!) should look at what Treasuries are doing.

Short terms are soaring.

Long terms - MEH! Asleep.

Thus, net of 10s % - 2s % is close to 1.2 (c 2.2 - 0.9). 1.2 has been the floor several times since 2009. Below 1.2 and you can expect an inverted yield curve to come. AKA Recession imminent.

Buy stocks? I'd rather drink my own blood.

More immediately, last 5 years has had high correlation betwen rising US$ and S&P. US$ falling... If Euro breaks above c 1.11 it's going to c 1.20. Similar for Yen, if strengthens. Highest correlation between stocks and falling Yen.

Edited by Killer Bunny
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Everyone (!!!) should look at what Treasuries are doing.

Short terms are soaring.

Long terms - MEH! Asleep.

Thus, net of 10s % - 2s % is close to 1.2 (c 2.2 - 0.9). 1.2 has been the floor several times since 2009. Below 1.2 and you can expect an inverted yield curve to come. AKA Recession imminent.

Buy stocks? I'd rather drink my own blood.

More immediately, last 5 years has had high correlation betwen rising US$ and S&P. US$ falling... If Euro breaks above c 1.11 it's going to c 1.20. Similar for Yen, if strengthens. Highest correlation between stocks and falling Yen.

Nonsense (so no surprise there)

Recessions dont start until > 1 yr AFTER curve inversion on avg. Curve inversion is still a long way off.

You should know this stuff - its schoolboy.

Ive been posting 2yr yield on here all year whilst youve been ramping losing bonds losing silver, losing gold, losing miners and losing greek equities. Why? Because its clear rates are rising. Youve only just noticed week before FED?!

and here it is again......clearly overbought near term

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST2Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p26931222523

good to see who Ive been taking money off though.

how can you be short equites during one of the best bull markets of your life?!

Edited by R K
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Time to unleash........

607271-cow.jpg

The bull was unleashed on 16th December 2014 last year, and the capitulation the day before was all about oil shock 1. I think the intraday low may have been 6079, from memory, but the day ended at 6182. Thereafter we got a rapid unwinding of short positions and a 4 month ascent.

Just saying, difficult to know this year with oil at sub $40,. Btw the energy sector makes up 13% of the FTSE 100 so the present bearishness looks a bit irrational, even had other stocks drifted down you could mark all the energy stocks to zero by the summer valuation of the FTSE 100.

Edited by crashmonitor
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The bull was unleashed on 16th December 2014 last year, and the capitulation the day before was all about oil shock 1. I think the intraday low may have been 6079, from memory, but the day ended at 6182. Thereafter we got a rapid unwinding of short positions and a 4 month ascent.

Just saying, difficult to know this year with oil at sub $40,. Btw the energy sector makes up 13% of the FTSE 100 so the present bearishness looks a bit irrational, even had other stocks drifted down you could mark all the energy stocks to zero by the summer valuation of the FTSE 100.

Thats Pandora, our (proprietary) cow.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Tech life cycles & valuations

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/the-compressed-tech-life-cycle-investor.html

interesting point about S&P500 constituents.....

The Tech Challenge for Market Timers
This is not a post on market timing, but there are lessons here for market timers as well. The composition of the S&P 500 has changed over time, with tech companies increasing as a proportion of the index from 6% of the index in 1990 to 20% of the index in 2015.

While only the most successful of tech companies make it into the index, they do bring their specific life cycle characteristics with them. The effect on the index PE will depend in large part on where these companies are in their life cycles; if they are still in their growth phases, their presence will push up the index PE, but if they are in decline, they can depress the index PE

AAPL?

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