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Killer Bunny
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6600 starting to look a little "strong" at this juncture (but, you know, overbought is as overbought does)

Anyway, a more reasonable "buy the dip" entry point (3-6 months duration) would be around 6100 +/- 100 pts.

Sometime in the next month would be just dandy. Else suck up any near term drawdown.

#foolcast

These two commentators sum up the situation going forward to the year end, with opposing views. I haven't got a clue.

http://www.cityam.com/227770/q-ftse-100-flat-january-will-santa-rally-bring-festive-cheer-investors-index

The news out from HSBC was encouraging for Q3 profits, as usual china spoilt the party.

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These two commentators sum up the situation going forward to the year end, with opposing views. I haven't got a clue.

http://www.cityam.com/227770/q-ftse-100-flat-january-will-santa-rally-bring-festive-cheer-investors-index

The news out from HSBC was encouraging for Q3 profits, as usual china spoilt the party.

Well (as you are probably aware by now) I dont pay much attention to other peoples narratives. I cant find many instances where short term price performance (month or so) has moved significantly higher on these technicals, but obviously it can happen. Near-term (month or so) odds seem to favour a short-lived retracement as indicated followed by a major move up over following 3-6 months (but we can review that as it unfolds).

Clearly any retracement will bring back the dooooomsters (& their narratives) in droves but they will most likely be wrong (again - dont they ever ask themselves why their narratives are wrong-its expensive after all?!)

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Well as far as the US is concerned those that called Bear were wrong, yesterday was as good a time as any to cash in within spitting distance of the all time peak of 2134 on the S and P. Even if the crash starts today, the bear phase started today too not the Summer. It's simply too close to the peak and too far off the August nadir.

Really goes to show the dislocation between US and Uk markets now. UK has got its balls in a vice over commodity values, you have to conclude that there is petrol in the tank if those balls can be extricated.

Edited by crashmonitor
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Which of our behavioral biases do the most damage to our financial well-being?

There are many failings that get us into trouble financially, as I describe in Misbehaving, so let me focus on just two.

The first is loss aversion. Losses have about twice the emotional impact of an equivalent gain. Fear of losses (and a tendency toward short-term thinking—I'm sneaking in a third one here) can inhibit appropriate risk-taking.

For example, investing in the stock market has historically provided much higher returns than investing in bonds or savings accounts, but stock prices fluctuate more, producing a greater risk of losses. Loss aversion can prevent investors from taking advantage of the long-term opportunities in stocks.

The second bias that causes a lot of trouble is overconfidence. Most people think they are above-average investors, and as a result they trade too much and diversify too little. Overconfidence can also lead people to invest during what appears to be a bubble, thinking they will just get out faster than others. Research shows that the more individuals trade, the lower their returns. Not surprisingly, men suffer from this problem more than women.

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/thaler-interview-102015?utm_content=sf14710457&utm_medium=spredfast&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=Personal+Investor&cid=sf14710457+sf14710457

Thaler on biases et al. Nothing new but always worth restating.

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6600 starting to look a little "strong" at this juncture (but, you know, overbought is as overbought does)

Anyway, a more reasonable "buy the dip" entry point (3-6 months duration) would be around 6100 +/- 100 pts.

Sometime in the next month would be just dandy. Else suck up any near term drawdown.

#foolcast

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Chart of FTSE

1. Don't tell me markets don't have memories.

2. Bounced from resistance (that was support).

It's all about the Yen. High inverse correlation Yen and S&P (ie stocks). As Yen falls, stocks rise and vice versa. Watch Yen and you'll know where stocks are heading. Everything at pivotal points right now. Seasonality would suggest strength in stocks into Spring.

Still though no reason to be generally bullish on stocks. Market Breadth is awful. Remember the Nifty Fifty. It's now 9.

NB. Market done nothing in over 4 years. YEARS! Hardly a market powering forward or one in which to believe. Remind you of any other market we know?

Edited by Killer Bunny
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S&P500

In similar vein, previously expected resistance at 2040/60. Went up to 2115. Pulling back off that.

Monthly MACD bearish.

Needs to see higher highs before you could get bullish on this. Thus far, lower high.

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6600 starting to look a little "strong" at this juncture (but, you know, overbought is as overbought does)

Anyway, a more reasonable "buy the dip" entry point (3-6 months duration) would be around 6100 +/- 100 pts.

Sometime in the next month would be just dandy. Else suck up any near term drawdown.

#foolcast

Entered the target zone........

Bingo bongo.

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This lack of +ve momentum is increasingly troubling. The longer we go on without it the more likely the risk of a short-term volatility event a la October cascading sell off.

3-6 month view still +ve but we need to see buyers coming in pretty soon now else we could see another potential 300/500 points spike lower on FTSE

You can almost "taste" the febrility at these junctures.

We're there again today: 90% (or so) of time we bounce, 10% (or so) we see a price dislocation, then bounce. higher or lower low is immaterial, process/outcome is similar for both.

Pays your money etc etc

#foolcast

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So s&p <2040 again. Below 2040 no reason to be long equities. MAJOR level.

IF rally to 2120 is failed breakup...

Failed breaks normally set up powerful moves. Not 100%.

On verra.

Edited by Killer Bunny
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  • 2 weeks later...

6600 starting to look a little "strong" at this juncture (but, you know, overbought is as overbought does)

Anyway, a more reasonable "buy the dip" entry point (3-6 months duration) would be around 6100 +/- 100 pts.

Sometime in the next month would be just dandy. Else suck up any near term drawdown.

#foolcast

6079.79 intraday low 16/11 0.003% out. Nice.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24FTSE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p18048034769

Edited by R K
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FRBSF (US) - What's Different about the latest Housing Boom?

"After peaking in 2006, the median U.S. house price fell about 30%, finally hitting bottom in late 2011. Since then, house prices have rebounded strongly and are nearly back to the pre-recession peak. However, conditions in the latest boom appear far less precarious than those in the previous episode. The current run-up exhibits a less-pronounced increase in the house price-to-rent ratio and an outright decline in the household mortgage debt-to-income ratio—a pattern that is not suggestive of a credit-fueled bubble ... Nevertheless, given that housing booms and busts can have significant and long-lasting effects on employment and other parts of the economy, policymakers and regulators must remain vigilant to prevent a replay of the mid-2000s experience."

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FRBSF (US) - What's Different about the latest Housing Boom?

"After peaking in 2006, the median U.S. house price fell about 30%, finally hitting bottom in late 2011. Since then, house prices have rebounded strongly and are nearly back to the pre-recession peak. However, conditions in the latest boom appear far less precarious than those in the previous episode. The current run-up exhibits a less-pronounced increase in the house price-to-rent ratio and an outright decline in the household mortgage debt-to-income ratio—a pattern that is not suggestive of a credit-fueled bubble ... Nevertheless, given that housing booms and busts can have significant and long-lasting effects on employment and other parts of the economy, policymakers and regulators must remain vigilant to prevent a replay of the mid-2000s experience."

have there ever been back to back real terms bubbles in the same asset class? If so, incredibly rare.

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