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Killer Bunny
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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST2Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30352088683

2 yr yields reversed gains earlier in the week (which was effectively a breakout) but remains (so far) firmly in an uptrend.

1 FED meeting closer to lift off.

-ve gdp revision likely to weigh on equities Id have thought until China sorts itself out. Recent period of weakness seems likely to persist for several months as per......bog standard stuff. Tops arent formed during gloom & doom.

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Right oh. Equities are in a bull market. Time stamped.

Oh except TLT is up 13% and S&P is up 1.5% since New Year. Ach, forget such nonsense KB. Totally irrelevant.

oh and Banks, RUT and NDX are down and trending down.

FORGET IT KB it's irrelevant.

OK. Equities are in a bull market for 2014. Akumamatata

Remember remember

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Too funny.

Well since you are my favourite contra-indicator (across all assets - some achievement!) you shall have to forgive me for backing my calls, not yours. Must admit I dont find your wrong calls funny, just sad. Those are real losses after all.

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Remember remember

You dont need a memory. SPX clearly (even on your own terms - rising 200ma) continued to be in a bull market.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p77155458570

Ive posted the data on these corrections on this thread so you can either inform yourself on probabilities or choose to be wrong. Its all the same to me, its your money not mine.

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Just tweeted:

"Retest of August equity lows now with us. Something tells me this is more than 2011."

Govt Bond bull mkt should continue.

10 year peaked in July 2012.

If youre betting your capital on long bonds quite clearly youll take a beating over time.

Not sure why you have such a blind spot on this KB. 2014 was simply the (quite understandable) retracement of the (overblown) 2013 taper tantrum. You can clearly see how that unwound & was given a temporary turbo boost in Oct14-Jan15 from the oil supply shock.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24TNX&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p44948639345

Even simplistically the higher high/higher low on TNX (10 yr yields) is very obvious. Unless 10 yr yield falls below July 2012 then it really cannot be described as an ongoing bond bull market. Sorry to burst your entire thesis but since you love your charts you should be able to see that.

By all means put up a chart contradicting the above so everyone can see what your "Something tells me" is. But until 10 yr yields have broken to new lows the 10 yr bond bull ended over 3 years ago and is now (very slowly & ofc in non-linear fashion) deflating.

Edited by R K
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So stocks back to lows (big falls from April/May highs), Govt Bonds rising, Gold rising,

Whoever said it is right, I dont know what I'm talking about. Oh I recall who said it.

The same XXXXer who said stocks are in a bull mkt, gold has no chance and Govt Bonds will collapse. Anyone who knows my posts knows of whom I am referring. Why does ANYONE listen to that XXXXer??? Do yourself a favour and mute him.

Edited by Killer Bunny
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HAM there are some on my twitter stream who are increasingly of the view that this is 2000 or 2007 happening right now, with a year or 2 to go. They were not of that view until recently.

I see many similarities to those years.

Agreed, on verra but those who were bullish stocks and bearish G Bonds in and going into 2015 have been proven resoundly wrong.

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So stocks back to lows (big falls from April/May highs), Govt Bonds rising, Gold rising,

Whoever said it is right, I dont know what I'm talking about. Oh I recall who said it.

The same XXXXer who said stocks are in a bull mkt, gold has no chance and Govt Bonds will collapse. Anyone who knows my posts knows of whom I am referring. Why does ANYONE listen to that XXXXer??? Do yourself a favour and mute him.

Your posts (and mine) are there for everyone to see. Your gold, silver, miners, equity, greece etc calls all drivel and losing money. Your bond calls only in the money on the long bond for very specific timeframes, losers on short/medium duration.

youve missed the equity bull market of a generation, if you cant see that I couldnt care less frankly.

Rather than absurd ad-homs (youre are a professional financial adviser right?!) heres the ognoing bull market you cannot see (for our readers).

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=D&st=2009-03-06&en=(today)&id=p42666548318

heres "Killerbunny"s gold bull market........

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&st=2011-03-06&en=today&id=p07980042363

and his silver bull market (youve been saying that since what 2013?. Ok.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=D&st=2011-03-06&en=today&id=p48898927141

and his UST bull market

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST&p=D&st=2011-03-06&en=today&id=p80428933833

Ok, on to more serious matters for our (more rational) readers........

vol will likely continue now for another month or so (I said 2-3 months earlier up the tread) but its clear that there is now a good long trade of around 500 points upside on the FTSE, perhaps more beyond that. If it sells off over the next few weeks that is a fantastic opportunity as this bull market regains composure, buyers step back in & we start the process of heading to new highs.

Edited by R K
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This lack of +ve momentum is increasingly troubling. The longer we go on without it the more likely the risk of a short-term volatility event a la October cascading sell off.

3-6 month view still +ve but we need to see buyers coming in pretty soon now else FTSEwe could see another potential 300/500 points spike lower on FTSE

#Foolcast (bases covered)

So we now know what happened a few days after I wrote the above.

Its a little early ofc, but irrespective of increased vol next week or so were then heading back to 6500-6600 initially & in due course on to new highs on FTSE (were talking several months not weeks for that to happen obviously). Near term volatility should be ignored (except to increase positions and if youre unfortunate to still hold metals or long duration bonds (wtf are you an idiot?), dump them).

#foolcast

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST2Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30352088683

2 yr yields reversed gains earlier in the week (which was effectively a breakout) but remains (so far) firmly in an uptrend.

1 FED meeting closer to lift off.

-ve gdp revision likely to weigh on equities Id have thought until China sorts itself out. Recent period of weakness seems likely to persist for several months as per......bog standard stuff. Tops arent formed during gloom & doom.

Yellen doesnt appear to have spooked the horses (not yet anyway)

2 yrs heading into another near-term low in this long, steady uptrend

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24UST2Y&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p74526184666

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A certain poster has been bullish on stocks for the last year. Check.

He's been bearish on Govt bonds for as long as I know. Check.

Also continues to be bearish PMs which are currently rallying. Gold up $70+ since the lows.

And he has the audacity to say what people tell me he has written. Beyond too funny. I hope he has indeed put all his money into stocks. Oh I so hope.

Edited by Killer Bunny
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A certain poster has been bullish on stocks for the last year. Check.

He's been bearish on Govt bonds for as long as I know. Check.

Also continues to be bearish PMs which are currently rallying. Gold up $70+ since the lows.

And he has the audacity to say what people tell me he has written. Beyond too funny. I hope he has indeed put all his money into stocks. Oh I so hope.

Links?

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Aswath Damodaran @AswathDamodaran 13m13 minutes ago

If don't feel reading my verbose blog post on the price of scandal at Volkswagen, a YouTube version, with slides: https://youtu.be/oDcrCKpFYO0?list=PLUkh9m2Borqk3IDRAWNFvMqVqlJDVtcd -

Interesting read/work through on likely overcooked sentiment on VW

EDIT:

Aswath Damodaran @AswathDamodaran 47m47 minutes ago

If don't feel reading my verbose blog post on the price of scandal at Volkswagen, a YouTube version, with slides: https://youtu.be/oDcrCKpFYO0?list=PLUkh9m2Borqk3IDRAWNFvMqVqlJDVtcd -

Edited by R K
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He also did a good shorter piece on puppet mastery illusions - inc the myth of the Fed setting interest rates and myth they're keeping them low:

http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/the-fed-interest-rates-and-stock-prices.html

Yes. Very thoughtful & capable value guy.

If you hold cash flows constant, an increase in interest rates has a relatively small effect on stock prices, with stock prices dropping 8.76%, even if the US T.Bond rate rises to 5%. In contrast, if cash flows drop, the index drops proportionately, even if interest rates remain unchanged. You are welcome to make your own "bad news" assumptions and check out the effect on value in this spreadsheet.

Why preserve the myth: For perpetual bears, wrong time and again in the last five years about stocks, the Fed (and low interest rates) have become a convenient bogeyman for why their market bets have gone wrong. If only the Fed had behaved sensibly and if only interest rates were at normal levels (though normal is theirs to define), they bemoan, their market timing forecasts would have been vindicated.

Theres an interesting paper on the GMO homepage (I think you need to be registered) - "The idolatory of Interest Rates" by Montier arguing in effect that the (real) interest rate is largely irrelevant in asset valuation & ERP/equity valuation in particular.

I think you posted a paper not long ago on the minor impact an interest rate rise has on house prices? Which must be a challenge to those believing a rate rise will crater asset (& house) prices. So, may be of interest.

Edited by R K
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