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http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/03/...ng-bottoms.html

Housing are probably close to bottoming out.

The dow is down so far, but given the huge devaluation of the dollar, I doubt it will stay down for the day.

Do you think that's what he's saying? Seems to me he's saying a couple of years off.

Looking at his first chart, the buying op. in the UK at least was more like 1995. That co-incides with the first pullback low after the initial low. As with shares, that is often the best place to enter. Not the actual low low but the next higher low. That took 4 years for the UK last time around, and I'm yet to be convinced QE will make much difference.

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The FTSE was unchanged today but defensives were down whilst cyclicals were up, £ also up.

These are clearly signs of risk taking behaviour and imply a continuing bear market rally.

Based on past experience (bear market rallies since 2000), I would expect a top around 4200 some time in April.

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Do you think that's what he's saying? Seems to me he's saying a couple of years off.

Looking at his first chart, the buying op. in the UK at least was more like 1995. That co-incides with the first pullback low after the initial low. As with shares, that is often the best place to enter. Not the actual low low but the next higher low. That took 4 years for the UK last time around, and I'm yet to be convinced QE will make much difference.

Financials down today, however, the size of the "down", is nothing compared to how they have moved up, so probably a correction, otherwise most things are moving up.

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Thanks for that RK. That cpx chart is striking.

The chart is unfamiliar to me - so I hope you don't mind if I ask a couple of questions. That yellow bar on the right is today's instructions? Looks like an overwhelming proportion of calls - i.e. people are buying - that's right isn't it? Why is there a gap in the preceding days?

Do you see this as massively supportive of prices or massively contrarian?

EDIT: You may like to read this. These are the FOMC minutes edited from month to month. Speaks volumes what they change.

http://alphaville.ftdata.co.uk/lib/inc/getfile/5445.jpg

I understand the right most bar to be today's. I guess they may be a day in arrears(?) that hasn't occured to me before. The intra-day chart has today's date and time stamp on it though. I believe it is saying the same "thing" as WayneL's indexindicators.com chart. i.e. the total CBOE puts/calls volume.

I don't know why there are dashes showing for the previous few days - it appears they are actually just very small readings/candles, but it could be missing data. I've played around with the chart parameters to try and make it more helpful. Here is the same chart, using "line" instead of "candles", and I've added a 10day ma so it more closely mimics the presentation of the indexindicators chart. As much as looking for an extreme reading, which may signify an end to the current trend (imo), it is interesting to follow the MACD. The trigger line crossing the MACD trend line (red) coincided with the sell off start of Jan, 9th Feb, and the start of this rally on 9th March. Now, you could claim this is a natural correlation. Nevertheless, it does appear we are close to another crossing. This time a retracement, which is what I am alert to.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC...id=p65866116071

Here is a chart of the SPX itself relative to this indicator. Again, you can see what happens 1st Jan, 9th Feb, 9th March. There are minor or false turns on 13th Jan and 18th Feb but these aren't confirmed by MACD crossovers. In any event there is an element of judgement/personal style in all these indicators. Do you take a position when it appears something is about to turn, wait until it does, how do you exit if you're wrong etc, which are all different questions really I think. Anywa, here's the chart fwiw.....

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p65866116071

We appear at or very close to a turn. I dare say Wayne's chart will show a low in the MA of this indicator tomorrow (as of today as well). Be interesting to see tomorrow. The trouble as you know, it is impossible to judge the scale of any move in advance.

End of ramblings.....

p.s. I'll take a look at those minutes after a bite to eat. Looks like my CV. :P

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http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$CPC...id=p95040917769

MACD on the cusp of crossing over today. Very similar pattern to Feb 9th. So, we need to see if this takes the SPX down here and how far to guage if it is just a pullback into a longer rally or a sell off. Looks imminent to me.

Karma

Forget the market-you need to concentrate on getting a win against Fulham and beating Porto. Get you priorities straight man-what's wrong with you?

Hotairmail-just read your reply from ages ago on CDS's and synthetic CDO's. Very interesting-beyond my intelligence I'm afraid (I only went to a Secondary Modern) but thanks for that.

BTW-Here is prediction from the Land of the Free-Tim Whatsisname won't see out April as Treasury Secretary. That lad makes Bernanke look as if he knows what he's talking about. He know longer has the faith of anybody. Wonder what Billy Hills would give you for that bet?

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Didn't we win yet? Oh, I had sort of leap-frogged to the semis against the gooners. :rolleyes:

EST is still 4 behind, so I guess that corrects on Sunday week when we go forward an hour. I spent 30 minutes last night refreshing after 8pm and wondering why they'd all gone to sleep. I wouldn't mind but it's about the 3rd time I've done it.

I can't see how Obama could lose Geithner so early on, isn't he the only person that's working in an office that should be staffed with around 30 people? Something scary like that I think.

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Hey guys, seems like a really good thread, I have been lurking in a couple of times a day. Just a couple of things I thought I d share with you as you may find these useful tools for doing your technical research on...

Are most of you using a spreadbetting accounts? I have one with MF Global and Hargreaves and Lansdowne. The problem I have found is that the charting software is terrible.

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VT Trader

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Proreal time

The other solution I have been looking for is getting cheap intraday data for a host of futures markets. I was using sierra charting for a while with infinity futures transact data feed...however when you add exchange fees it comes to a fair bit each month...

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here is a screen shot of the software...Efutures.jpg

The thing I liked about this one was that you could customise the candles to volume, pip range, and time...so if you want 6 minute candles you can have 6 minute candles, if you want 3 second candles, or 15 second candles you can do it.

Also you can have range candles, a kind of a cross between point and figure and candles...you can set them to whatever...today i was playing around with 10 pip candles on the FTSE, 40 pip candles etc...so the candle only completes after that number of pips, so it takes the variable of time out of the equation...was messing around with MA's and range candles and you can make some interesting observations...

So all in all for 24USD a month and the other two free software packages you can get a great way to analyse the markets with intraday data for a fraction what it usually costs.

E-futures demo

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Hope this will be helpful

post-13039-1237573914_thumb.jpg

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My thinking is similar. 775/80 then 804/5 was the likely profit taking area (prior breadown). I think we all said that last week. It hit 803.24 then sold off. You would expect those who now consider this a long market to come back in down to 750, perhaps 741. At an extreme even down to sub-700 again. On the upside I'm expecting 804 again, then 835 then 875 as the next resistance/long triggers if it gets that far. Those are the P&F turns.

So it really depends whether you're a long, buying retracements for a continued bear rally, or looking to fade resistance into strength (as I have this time, closing if I'm wrong until the next potential 'turn') or taking longer-term positions to hold which you now consider cheap. All are valid I think.

My personal uncertainty right now is trend. i.e. Do I sell into a continued downtrend, or did the down-trend finish 9/3 and are we now in an uptrend, so need to be buying dips and staying long? My current 'read' is we're still in a downtrend and this is a counter-trend rally which was strong due mostly to short covering and everybody expecting it. If I'm wrong I'll hope to take small losses. It may get stretched to 835 or even 875 before the next major sell-off, hence the need for good risk management.

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Looks as if 730 is in - very much buy on rumour sell on news.

If turns round there just buy and keep buying on dips to c 1000.

This could be a 1974 cyclical rally ie just about the biggest in history.

$ crashing. Gold rocketing. It has to burst through 1033 (Feb/Mar 08 high) for game to be on. Went to 890 then Ben opened his mouth.

If you can stand it buy and hold for 10 years - more volatile than stocks but ending up in the $000s.

Put it in your pension and forget about it. (NB Agri will do better in my view)

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Geithner has finally got the hang of the weekend news briefing. :lol: I'll stick with the numbers I've already got, and leave the "why" to the financial media I think. If market rallies it's because of the bad bank plan, if the market sell off it's because they don't like the bad bank plan.

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Slightly OT, but I'll post this new Zealllc.com (Adam Hamilton) article here rather than in the other place.

http://www.zealllc.com/2009/newgold.htm

The GLD ETF (second chart) now surpasses both the Japanese and Swiss central banks in the size of their physical holdings. No doubting performance, and Adam is very bullish, but something tells me it will all end in tears when a single investment entity is bigger than major central banks. I have no idea how but that seems a great deal of 'power' concentrated in a single market listing.

Edit: SPX thoughts -Just been looking at the slightly longer-term perspective (Weekly charts).

In a sustained bull market, one could expect to see the price above the 20wk and the 20 wk above the 50wk (with pullbacks). Now, the 20wk today is 837 - price is closing in on it. 20 weeks ago takes us back to Oct/Nov where price was already down in the 800/900 area. Which means 20wk will start to flatten soon, more so the longer prices stay higher. So there is an opportunity for price to climb over the 20wk. The 50wk by contrast still has another 6 months or so until the higher prices pre-September '08 drop out (edit). So if prices continue to rise into the 800s we could see the 20wk turn up towards the 50wk. I know these are lagging indicators by varying margins, but I'm trying to project forward the possible new 'bull' scenario, and so long as prices stay above current levels, then it would appear it could technically happen in around 3-4 months or so. 50wk will continue dropping rapidly as pre-Sept prices drop out. If we're in a longer-term bear I guess if we do have a strong bear market rally back towards 1,000 (50% rally) then a sell off near the 50wk MA in 3-4 months could be expected, otherwise that sort of timescale looks possible for a 20/50 wk crossover I think. Clearly by then most of the price action would have happened (edit). Just my ramblings.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p50833570722

Edited by Red Kharma
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In this case, it seems the action is based on the narrative. Pre-markets have moved from negative to positive on the Geithner 'details' and 'generosity'. But not that much (so far). Range of indicators still seem to say the markets want to sell off st.

Exactly my thought. Watching to see if 804 is a spike and sell again or a march up to the next level.

Mobius at Templeton just called this as the start of the next bull but with bottom bouncing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=alMkMPzGCQUA

“You are going to see a lot of bouncing off the bottom because there’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty in the market,” Mobius said, “But I have a feeling we’re at the bottom and now we’re building a base for the next bull market.”
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Exactly my thought. Watching to see if 804 is a spike and sell again or a march up to the next level.

Mobius at Templeton just called this as the start of the next bull but with bottom bouncing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=alMkMPzGCQUA

Mobius at Templeton Asset lost 40% of clients money over the last 18 months. He is a yesterday man who at the age of 72 cannot grasp what has happened to the global markets. He did well to even manage to have a feeling :blink: .

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Mobius at Templeton just called this as the start of the next bull but with bottom bouncing.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=alMkMPzGCQUA

Now that's what I call a hedged call

A bull, but a sideways bull :blink:

These guys will always be positive. It's their job, they need new inflows.

There will always be a new bull sometime, to make the obvious statement, but I still struggle to see where the earnings will come from for some time.

...unless QE works, but I'm always wary of The Law of Unintended Consequences.

For me it means trading what I see... no stuffing new scrip in the bottom drawer and anything I have is managed in Cottlesque* style.

v5l9j9.png

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Now that's what I call a hedged call

A bull, but a sideways bull :blink:

These guys will always be positive. It's their job, they need new inflows.

There will always be a new bull sometime, to make the obvious statement, but I still struggle to see where the earnings will come from for some time.

...unless QE works, but I'm always wary of The Law of Unintended Consequences.

For me it means trading what I see... no stuffing new scrip in the bottom drawer and anything I have is managed in Cottlesque* style.

v5l9j9.png

'Baseing' covers most outcomes except a total collapse.

So what do you see this fine day Wayne?

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'Baseing' covers most outcomes except a total collapse.

So what do you see this fine day Wayne?

I'm looking for the gap fade trade. Apart from that, no ideas, flying by the seat of my pats stuff at the moment... apart from new option positions to put on from friday's expiry.

Edited by wayneL
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So the buyers get discounted assets with 50% equity on top of 6-1 leverage with nearly all the financiing guaranteed by the FDIC. Works out at about 14-1 leverage on the original nominal value in their example.

Isn't this just a series of govt. guaranteed leveraged hedge funds? I suppose it starts price discovery....Mr Denninger should be pleased.

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And will the settled prices be public? I guess they will have to be......EBAY for big boys.

Futures market seems thoroughly underwhelmed so far.

Edit: As soon as bids are agreed balance sheets can be valued. That's the moment of truth I guess.

Edited by Red Kharma
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Isn't this just a series of govt. guaranteed leveraged hedge funds?

It is, I think it's a good idea in the sense that it's hard to get tax payer support for buying all that crap in a bad bank, so by instead supplying leverage, some cash, and have hedge funds buy some of it through the package or very good deal the treasury have arranged, the banks get more of the bad assets of their books, with more bang for buck for the tax payer, at least in the short run, instead of using 1 trillion, of tax money, 100 billion or something like that is easier to sell to the tax payer. The trick is that if they inflate enough, then these assets will be worth something. And I think these assets are a good deal. It's not worthless, in the context of a better economy and again rising house prices. It's even so that, the houses, let's say you buy a mortage for 20 cents on the dollar, the house backing that mortage, will be worth more than 20 cent's on the dollar.

Edited by carseller
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High of 805.12 triggered a P&F breakout, but it looked very iffy to me. 3rd day out of last 4 it hasn't clear that 804/5 with any decisiveness. (edit).

Hmph. Broke through 804. The 820/35 area was very congested on the way down and there looks to be a gap down on 18/2 at 820/5 which it may be trying to fill. ADX has crossed and diverging which would indicate rise continuing until it crossed down again imo. Stochastics still at a peak. I've pinched Bubb's 76dma since it has been a barrier hitherto. We'll see where we close tonight.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX...id=p53842224104

Edited by Red Kharma
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Quite a rise. I am in no doubt now that this is a multi month rally.

Buy on significant pullbacks (when there are some - as I said, there might not be any)

It's a new bubble. I just wonder if it's more of the same from 2003-2008, with commodities and emerging market's back on track (I think so), or if it's more of a US bull, like after 1982 (I don't think so).

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Quite a rise. I am in no doubt now that this is a multi month rally.

Buy on significant pullbacks (when there are some - as I said, there might not be any)

I stopped out but went short again at the close. The size of today's rally is in my view misleading since it came off two days of selling. It's up 2.5% on the 803 high from last Thursday. I'm sticking to fading into strength, but that's 'cause that's what it still looks like to me. Could be wrong of course.

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