If Anyone's Interested

[carseller]

Baltic dry has a ticker symbol - $BDI

I don't know if you can trade it - anyone know? Might be worth a long (after a pullback) then given the potential upside.

Edit: An index symbol

I think you can trade the futures, however I think you have to go through some special ship broker, I don't really know, that have access to the baltic exchange in london, probably easier to just buy one of the dry bulk carriers.

dryships might not make it through the crisis, but they are the most leveraged of the shippers I think, and probably the biggest potential upside if it really were to go back to old highs pretty fast.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DRYS

The PEG ratio is pretty impressive. 0,01 , however,who knows how it will go.

It will behave similar to Chinese stocks, fertilizer, and most commodities if china have a big boom.

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi...c_dry_index.htm

It's a play on a weaker us treasury market, and a stronger RMB, however, I don't think dryships can take the current rates that long. As long as treasuries weaken, the rates are going to increase.

Edited February 5, 2009 by carseller

[R K]

Thanks for the links CS

Also found this article with a few alternatives to DRYS. It seems there is a likely share dilution to raise $500m so care needed.

Also, some interesting thoughts on Palladium.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/118102-pre...ts?source=yahoo

[carseller]

One of the ways to play this market is simply, a wild strategy, etc, just look for shares that are selling below a dollar or 50 cents, buy a good stash of each, and just keep them, important to buy many different, some go bankrupt, others do great, maybe 9 of 10 survive, who knows.don't look at the numbers:)

a possible way to analyze it is that lower oil price, because of a weak US hurts the Russian market, but gives the Chinese a boost.

Edited February 5, 2009 by carseller

[carseller]

The baltic dry again up around 14 %, the second day in a row with a solid double digit increase.

The Chinese must be dumping the dollar.

[ripandcap]

Whats the medium - long term for the ftse carseller?

[R K]

VIX has broken up through the 10 day ma. So, we'll see if this is a reasonable indicator or not.

SPX back down to 827.....close to support......again!

[carseller]

Whats the medium - long term for the ftse carseller?

I don't know, but I think it's offering "fair value". If you buy and hold at these levels, I think you will do better than if you hold British pounds in a bank account over the next 10 years. It's more like 1938, than 1929. I think the true potential book values of companies, are bigger than what the company papers says.

Timing is very difficult. I bought most of my stocks around the 8000 level on the dow, and my portfolio is around 0. I think the biggest risk is that stocks go from being cheap or fair value to being expensive. They might go from cheap to very cheap, but if they do, they will probably come back. If they go from cheap to moderate and then expensive it's more risky when you buy, and you paid to much, so I think it's more important to think of the risk of getting priced out, than the risk that it might get cheaper, because that is not a problem as long as you did not paid to much, as it will come back.

The reason is that the UK government will probably do things that cause double digit inflation, that will not be great for the stock market before after inflation cools off, I think it will be low interest rates, high inflation, and wage and price controls at the same time. When inflation come down, profit margins and book values will increase. Similarly to after WW2.

Let say you find a food company that have a competitive advantage, that pays you a 4 % dividend yield now. And they print lot of money, then inflation might go to 10 %- 15 %, this could increase the yield of the stock to a much higher level without the stock price going up. In reality, if you was a company, not a stock owner (without a market quote to worry about), you would be doing great. Whenever inflation would be coming down, your stock would be yielding 8- 10 %, and inflation would be lower. That would bring the stock price higher. It's hard to explain, but a 3-4 % yield is not bad when inflation is at todays low levels. They key to making money is to look at the company and if they make money, not how the stock will perform.

Edited February 5, 2009 by carseller

[carseller]

There is a decoupling happening between chinese and russian stocks.

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=CHL#cha...ource=undefined

I don't think it will last very long.

I think there will emerge a great buying opportunity for VIP.

[carseller]

This is the best way to play China. http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=MOS#cha...ource=undefined

Buy fertilizer. The reason is that we had a worldwide boom, so steel demand might not be the same as it was, but even as living standards decrease in the west we are likely to consume as much food as before. Those in Asia will consume more, this makes fertilizer stocks the perfect investment, not needing a worldwide boom condition.

[carseller]

One thing to say about shipping. The Capesize ships don't make it through the panama canal. Only the smaller. That the bulk of the increase in Capesize, means it's probably much more China than USA that are causing the demand.

[R K]

US equity markets still look becalmed to me. Bounce off first line support, no real enthusiasm to the upside. May tick up a few % higher but is still waiting for a nod and a wink.

[carseller]

US equity markets still look becalmed to me. Bounce off first line support, no real enthusiasm to the upside. May tick up a few % higher but is still waiting for a nod and a wink.

I think the Chinese market are leaving the station. That's probably the place to be right now.

[Converted Lurker]

US equity markets still look becalmed to me. Bounce off first line support, no real enthusiasm to the upside. May tick up a few % higher but is still waiting for a nod and a wink.

Dow still way off early Jan highs, but up sharply since yesterday afternoon's year low, what is it, a 5% rise off the bottom in 24 hours? That's quite dramatic.

[carseller]

I think this is a pretty good article of what's happening.

http://www.cnbc.com//id/29038794?__source=...|&par=yahoo

[R K]

Dow still way off early Jan highs, but up sharply since yesterday afternoon's year low, what is it, a 5% rise off the bottom in 24 hours? That's quite dramatic.

Perhaps I have a slightly negative bias at the moment, I don't know. DOW and S&P are still well within their wider trading range. Minor breakout to the upside in the very short-term today but I don't think that is particularly significant. We'll see what happens at 875/8400. Volatility is still falling. Perhaps it is going to be a slowly rising market but I don't see it just yet. I feel now that calm appears to have returned there will be an unexpected shock that will wake everyone up. I can't speak for China - CS has a much better global view than I do.

[carseller]

It's still not much good to say about stocks like General Electric.

I think I'd like to see that kind of blue chip stocks move higher before this thing is really for real, but maybe that are not the kind of stocks the smart money is looking for.

[Hatchet Man]

The Signature.

Nothing I write here is to be taken as specific advice to any reader in particular. I make generic comment and statements should not be construed as advice which should be acted upon. If anyone wishes to act upon the statements made herein then that is entirely at their discretion. It has nothing to do with me or my company. The recommendation I would make is that everyone takes professional advice or makes themselves knowledgeable before taking financial planning actions.

What a load of hypocritical b u l l s h i t.

[Converted Lurker]

This Monday - today?

[carseller]

With the development in US gov bonds, there is only one thing to do. For gods sake buy some damn inflation hedges.

[Te Mata]

With the development in US gov bonds, there is only one thing to do. For gods sake buy some damn inflation hedges.

What, in your view, is the development in bonds?

[carseller]

What, in your view, is the development in bonds?

They are selling off, yields are increasing, the US government might turn on the printing presses to halt the yields if they get to high, even I think it's unlikely, but if they do it, it will be very inflationary. In this context, it have never been done before. Japan tried it to limit deflation, but nobody have tried it to combat rising interest rates in an economy saddled with debt. Most likely this is just the start of the new expansion. Unless it's the start of something work, mainly runaway inflation.

A thing to notice is that oil is at 45 dollars. It's actually the cheapest thing that is around right now. It's trading at a 50 % discount to gold. Other things that are cheap are agricultural commodities.

[R K]

Right, well I'm selling into this rally.

Don't like the look of it at all. I'm usually a little early, so it may run up a few percent more. But I'm now playing the downside. DYOR. I'm just sharing this because I enjoy our discussions. I'm talking short-term here, not long-term, and within my own, very personal, risk management.

[carseller]

I think the trend will show up in companies such as this http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HAL#cha...ource=undefined

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=SLB#cha...ource=undefined

For each of the last cycles, inflation have become worse and worse. I think a new business cycle is coming now, with inflation worse than ever for those that did not experience the seventies.

[ItsColdUpHere]

For each of the last cycles, inflation have become worse and worse. I think a new business cycle is coming now, with inflation worse than ever for those that did not experience the seventies.

I notice from your other posts that you don't think house prices will fall much futher.

Is this the root of that belief - that high inflation will make assets of any kind worth having in the medium term?

High inflation = House prices MUCH higher than now in 10 years.

Some people spout on about the stability of the House Price/Earnings ration without seeing what this implies - that the ONLY long term driver of house prices is the level of wages, so a bet on house prices is simply a bet on inflation.

Cheers...

Edited February 9, 2009 by ItsColdUpHere

[Te Mata]

They are selling off, yields are increasing, the US government might turn on the printing presses to halt the yields if they get to high, even I think it's unlikely, but if they do it, it will be very inflationary. In this context, it have never been done before. Japan tried it to limit deflation, but nobody have tried it to combat rising interest rates in an economy saddled with debt. Most likely this is just the start of the new expansion. Unless it's the start of something work, mainly runaway inflation.

A thing to notice is that oil is at 45 dollars. It's actually the cheapest thing that is around right now. It's trading at a 50 % discount to gold. Other things that are cheap are agricultural commodities.

Selling off?

Yes, from ridiculous to very high. As to the interpretation of that, it's hardly a punt on inflation at this point.

Yields are still at historically very low levels. The selloff looks more like panic merchants wondering what the feck they were doing buying bonds up there and coming to their senses (p1ssing away great gobs of cash at the same time).