London Luxury-homes Prices Have Second-biggest Drop On Record

[Realistbear]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

London Luxury-Homes Prices Have Second-Biggest Drop on Record

By Peter Woodifield

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- London luxury-home prices had the second-biggest decline on record in January as would-be buyers struggled to secure mortgages from banks hurt by the global financial crisis.

The average value of homes costing more than 1 million pounds ($1.4 million) in London’s most expensive neighborhoods

fell 3.7 percent from a month earlier,

Knight Frank LLP said in an e-mailed statement today. In the past 12 months, prices have slumped 21 percent, the biggest annualized drop recorded by Knight Frank

.

Quite a savoury bit if you annualise it. Fing is, things are going to get a LOT worse from here as unemployment and depression hit the former financial capital of the world.

AIAP

Edited January 31, 2009 by Realistbear

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

Many of these have a lot further to fall. Especially new build appartments.

3.7% is massive, as the air is let out of the city bubble, these prices are going to fall further and faster than the UK average.

[Tin Foil Hat]

That's the first >20% YOY figure I've seen.

I read a year ago that a HPC is defined as a reduction in prices of 20% in one year, so this for me is a milestone day!

The HPC has arrived. How far will the infection spread? That is the question now.

TFH

[Selling up]

I read a year ago that a HPC is defined as a reduction in prices of 20% in one year, so this for me is a milestone day!

That's a pretty tough definition, considering that to my knowledge prices have never dropped 20% in a year before.

[grizzly bear]

That's the first >20% YOY figure I've seen.

I read a year ago that a HPC is defined as a reduction in prices of 20% in one year, so this for me is a milestone day!

The HPC has arrived. How far will the infection spread? That is the question now.

TFH

What would it be if prices fell by 20% for two years in a row!?!?

[grey shark]

What would it be if prices fell by 20% for two years in a row!?!?

40%

[mikthe20]

40%

36% no?

[bobthe~]

That's a pretty tough definition, considering that to my knowledge prices have never dropped 20% in a year before.

that's what I thought too.

It means there was no HPC in GC1.

I think a "real" drop of 15-20% top to bottom is more like it.

Anyway, I don't think anyone is denying it now are they?

Maybe Stuart Law and the succession of incompetent housing ministers

[grey shark]

36% no?

40% from peak

[bobthe~]

40% from peak

100*0.8 = 80

80*0.8 = 64

not 60.

[time 2 raise interest rates]

Well it's beginning to look like all those mug punters that was under the impression house prices only ever

go up will end up losing their shirts after all, still they could always rent them out i suppose, you can't

beat locking in your losses.

Edited January 31, 2009 by time 2 raise interest rates

[Realistbear]

Thanks RB, good to see you still around.

Been busy, or have the RB-bashers chased you off?

Busy. The war has pretty much been won. All there is to do now is to decide how big of a discount you want off your future house purchase. I am thinking in terms of AT LEAST 60% down from peak before I am interested. Should see another 30% off this year--the year of phase 2 of the BIG ONE--massive job losses, spiralling repossessions and general depression and gloom. Brown's plan to think positive ain't going to work.

[Wad]

The impact of this will be felt well beyond London.

I can tell you right now that all those well heeled baby boomers out in Country areas who thought they were going to sell their £1 million country home to a mug City punter up from London and then downsize and retire to France are going to be sorely disappointed.

Basically, this phenomenon of people moving out of London in search of good schools and to buy country properties is very much at the heart of the successful business model of the large up market EAs. It was a good business and to be honest quite sustainable until prices went beserk.

Basically the whole flow out of London to buy expensive country properties in places like the Oxfordshire/Cotswolds has ceased. Anyone who was looking at selling a £1.25 million home in London in Dec 2007 has now lost nearly £300k and they will struggle to sell for £950k in a few months time.

Looks like an awful lot of London people are going to have to put their dream of owning a country property on hold for a decade and a lot of retirees in country properties are going to have to put their downsized retirement on hold as a result.

[time 2 raise interest rates]

They say they've fallen 21% year-on-year so on £1,000,000 they have lost £210,000, if they had of

banked it they would have around £1,050,000. Lots of btl in London.

[Nomadd]

Basically the whole flow out of London to buy expensive country properties in places like the Oxfordshire/Cotswolds has ceased. Anyone who was looking at selling a £1.25 million home in London in Dec 2007 has now lost nearly £300k and they will struggle to sell for £950k in a few months time.

"Will struggle to sell for £950k in a few months time"?

Believe me, a peak priced £1.25M property will struggle to sell for £950k right now. In a few months time (well, 12-24), it'll be struggling to make £500k.

Nomadd

[sutemiwaza]

Ouch...as an agent it seems alot especially at the moment as we have a shortage of houses and I work in central London and my colleagues in other areas agree..Still think it is going to crash in a major way but the market going up and down 20% can happen in a few months (especially when the bonues season happened..not happening anymore).

Have heard about the Knight Frank and Savills index and just heard about one from John D Wood...it would be interesting to see if there is any difference betwen them.

[Wad]

"Will struggle to sell for £950k in a few months time"?

Believe me, a peak priced £1.25M property will struggle to sell for £950k right now. In a few months time (well, 12-24), it'll be struggling to make £500k.

Nomadd

I was being optimistic. In reality, I agree with you. Aelling anything in the £1m area is pretty tough even in London.

That said I have a friend who just sold his flat for well over £1 million in the very best part of SW1 which was very near his asking price.

[quad]

The impact of this will be felt well beyond London.

I can tell you right now that all those well heeled baby boomers out in Country areas who thought they were going to sell their £1 million country home to a mug City punter up from London and then downsize and retire to France are going to be sorely disappointed.

Basically, this phenomenon of people moving out of London in search of good schools and to buy country properties is very much at the heart of the successful business model of the large up market EAs. It was a good business and to be honest quite sustainable until prices went beserk.

Basically the whole flow out of London to buy expensive country properties in places like the Oxfordshire/Cotswolds has ceased. Anyone who was looking at selling a £1.25 million home in London in Dec 2007 has now lost nearly £300k and they will struggle to sell for £950k in a few months time.

Looks like an awful lot of London people are going to have to put their dream of owning a country property on hold for a decade and a lot of retirees in country properties are going to have to put their downsized retirement on hold as a result.

this is excelent news for locals living oxon/cotswolds who cant compete with city money flowing out into the sticks.

this can only have a very negative impact on house prices, shame really

[Thread Killer]

this is excelent news for locals living oxon/cotswolds who cant compete with city money flowing out into the sticks.

this can only have a very negative impact on house prices, shame really

Who would want to live out in the Cotswolds? I've just got a job out there, and there is no mobile phone signal FFS!

But on the positive side I'm working on house repossessions for a building society so work is strangely motivating...

[AmateurEconomist]

You would be lucky now to actually get a decent house at 10% off peak.

Good schools and nice area's aren't dropping that much. I went viewing at Kings Hill in Kent today. I don't think anywhere has dropped 10 pence let alone 10%.

Soooo much rubbish being hyped up . If you want to own a 60% off hell hole on a council estate then go for it if it makes you feel better.

Tell them Sibley! What do Land Registry, Nationwide, Halifax know about property prices eh? Spreading panic by saying prices have fallen by 13.8%, 16% etc. Everyone, listen to Sibley, prices have not fallen even 10 pence!

[darwin]

You would be lucky now to actually get a decent house at 10% off peak.

Good schools and nice area's aren't dropping that much. I went viewing at Kings Hill in Kent today. I don't think anywhere has dropped 10 pence let alone 10%.

Soooo much rubbish being hyped up . If you want to own a 60% off hell hole on a council estate then go for it if it makes you feel better.

Ok Sibley, we know, you're special. But you shouldn't carry on thinking you'll be immune, 'cos you won't be.

London led on the way up, and will lead on the way down. It's a massive neutron bomb primed to go off, and when it does the devastation will be felt all around. Londoners are, of course, pragmatic by nature and will cut prices if that's what's necessary. Cut the price, then get on with your life.

A quick look through Kings Hill ME19 shows few sales in the past year and what has sold seems to be in accord with elsewhere in the country.

Looks like the people in Kings Hill still haven't got the memo. They are holding out because, um, well, that's what it's worth.

[Mikhail Liebenstein]

The impact of this will be felt well beyond London.

I can tell you right now that all those well heeled baby boomers out in Country areas who thought they were going to sell their £1 million country home to a mug City punter up from London and then downsize and retire to France are going to be sorely disappointed.

Basically, this phenomenon of people moving out of London in search of good schools and to buy country properties is very much at the heart of the successful business model of the large up market EAs. It was a good business and to be honest quite sustainable until prices went beserk.

Basically the whole flow out of London to buy expensive country properties in places like the Oxfordshire/Cotswolds has ceased. Anyone who was looking at selling a £1.25 million home in London in Dec 2007 has now lost nearly £300k and they will struggle to sell for £950k in a few months time.

Looks like an awful lot of London people are going to have to put their dream of owning a country property on hold for a decade and a lot of retirees in country properties are going to have to put their downsized retirement on hold as a result.

Where London leads, Surrey follows. I can see much gnashing of teeth on Weybridge, Tadworth, Epsom etc.

[BXLONDONMAN]

Many of these have a lot further to fall. Especially new build appartments.

3.7% is massive, as the air is let out of the city bubble, these prices are going to fall further and faster than the UK average.

the faster the better for everyone who want's to buy !!!

[Austin Allegro]

I went viewing at Kings Hill in Kent today. I don't think anywhere has dropped 10 pence let alone 10%.

Yes but we're talking about the prices of houses, not little stone bridges.

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

You would be lucky now to actually get a decent house at 10% off peak.

Good schools and nice area's aren't dropping that much. I went viewing at Kings Hill in Kent today. I don't think anywhere has dropped 10 pence let alone 10%.

Is Weybridge a dump? Last time I looked it was most expensive town in the South East. Yet it is plummetting. As are surrounding areas. Keep up the herb misuse.