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Many of us on this site have been saying for a few years – its only when The Sun uses the ‘C word’ – the population will realise there really is a HPC

Now even the News of the World is joining in

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/14267...eats-wages.html

These newspapers may not be the best in the world, but they are the most popular by a huge margin and they have real infuence

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It is great to see the news of the crash being propogated across the entire population no matter which paper they read. It is only when we have accceptance of the facts that we can finally get prices moving more quickly to fair value.

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Many of us on this site have been saying for a few years – its only when The Sun uses the ‘C word’ – the population will realise there really is a HPC

Now even the News of the World is joining in

http://www.newsoftheworld.co.uk/news/14267...eats-wages.html

These newspapers may not be the best in the world, but they are the most popular by a huge margin and they have real infuence

Rupert Murdoch will determine the speed of the HPC. (I was going to put a smiley in, but on reflection this may not be too far of the mark.)

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I see the one comment so far is that HIPS should go. As if a £200 expense will stop someone selling a house.

I think a lot of people fail to realise that the EPC part of the HIP is a legal requirement. Even for l/lords since Oct 2008, not sure if existing ASTs are affected though, or just new ones.

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There is real media weight now behind the HPC story.

The thing is the media don't actually make the news, they just report it , though this does provide a useful positive feedback mechanism to accelerate the crash.

Until the crash starts to slow itself naturally, the media will keep on reporting it. I think we'll have another couple of years of similar headlines for the time being.

Edited by mikelivingstone

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There is real media weight now behind the HPC story.

The thing is the media don't actually make the news, they just report it , though this does provide a useful positive feedback mechanism to accelerate the crash.

Until the crash starts to slow itself naturally, the media will keep on reporting it. I think we'll have another couple of years of similar headlines for the time being.

It has taken the conventional media a few years to realise that houses were unsustainably expensive.

I suspect that it will also take them a while to realise that conditions have improved enough that it makes sense to think about buying when that time comes. That gives us a window of opportunity to buy advantageously during the phase where the market finds its bottom and choice is at its widest. No argument from me that we are a couple of years away from this.

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It has taken the conventional media a few years to realise that houses were unsustainably expensive.

I suspect that it will also take them a while to realise that conditions have improved enough that it makes sense to think about buying when that time comes. That gives us a window of opportunity to buy advantageously during the phase where the market finds its bottom and choice is at its widest. No argument from me that we are a couple of years away from this.

Agreed. The bottom is still 2 years away, though we may see a lower rate of decline in the last 12 months of that (eg 1% per month versus 1.8% that we have now and for the rest of 2009). As you say the media will also experience a bit of a time lag before they begin reporting that buying a house is great idea, though I suspect they'll cotton on to the bottom quicker than the cottoned onto the top - as the VIs will be out spending money on adverts again.

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Agreed. The bottom is still 2 years away, though we may see a lower rate of decline in the last 12 months of that (eg 1% per month versus 1.8% that we have now and for the rest of 2009). As you say the media will also experience a bit of a time lag before they begin reporting that buying a house is great idea, though I suspect they'll cotton on to the bottom quicker than the cottoned onto the top - as the VIs will be out spending money on adverts again.

I agree that the bottom will become mainstream more quickly than the top did. With luck, the VIs will be in such bad shape by the time that we get to the bottom that they won't have any money left to spend trying to ramp up the market again ......

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It is great to see the news of the crash being propogated across the entire population no matter which paper they read. It is only when we have accceptance of the facts that we can finally get prices moving more quickly to fair value.

I think the article also puts the current market in perspective very well in layman’s terms in the following way

“The average value of houses and flats is falling by £764 a week as prices continue to nosedive—yet the average pay packet is £479”

I not trying to put myself above the ‘average Joe’ in terms of my understanding of economics and I’m not knocking the masses, but the simple fact is that the majority of people don’t understand economics that well

£764 is something that everyone can understand

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I see the one comment so far is that HIPS should go. As if a £200 expense will stop someone selling a house.

I think a lot of people fail to realise that the EPC part of the HIP is a legal requirement. Even for l/lords since Oct 2008, not sure if existing ASTs are affected though, or just new ones.

Just new ones.

Another little present from our European lords and masters.

Coming to business soon too!

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I think the article also puts the current market in perspective very well in layman’s terms in the following way

“The average value of houses and flats is falling by £764 a week as prices continue to nosedive—yet the average pay packet is £479”

I not trying to put myself above the ‘average Joe’ in terms of my understanding of economics and I’m not knocking the masses, but the simple fact is that the majority of people don’t understand economics that well

£764 is something that everyone can understand

For the bears out there, this is a wonderfully bleak message. You are making £479 a week from your job and losing £764 a week on your house so your are losing £285 a week.

During the bullish phase, I am sure that some people added house price appreciation to their incomes when deciding how much money to spend on cars, holidays etc etc. They are in trouble now.

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Good bear food. I remember when people would ask why bother working when you earn more with property - now the opposite is true!

Love this line:

Shadow Housing Minister Grant Shapps said: “The figures underline how savage the price correction has become.

It's not even started yet...

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The other comment is good - 6 years until prices rises (I say 8 minimum)... people must be shitting in their pants. If inflation rockets repossessions wil skyrocket. With housing in a mess, pensions in a mess, job losses galore, it's looking reeeeealy bad for Brown..

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The other comment is good - 6 years until prices rises (I say 8 minimum)... people must be sh*tting in their pants. If inflation rockets repossessions wil skyrocket. With housing in a mess, pensions in a mess, job losses galore, it's looking reeeeealy bad for Brown..

I'd agree on your timescale. House prices can't continue to plunge at their current rate: we'd end up with the average price being less than zero! What will happen is that a shortish period of sharp falls will give way to a much longer period of more gentle declines. I'd say 6 to 8 years before we see any rises again is about right.

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The other comment is good - 6 years until prices rises (I say 8 minimum)... people must be shitting in their pants. If inflation rockets repossessions wil skyrocket. With housing in a mess, pensions in a mess, job losses galore, it's looking reeeeealy bad for Brown..

It was me who wrote that. Always good for HPCers to add to the media's comments sections as it shapes their view of reader opinion.

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it's looking reeeeealy bad for Brown..

Yes, but the trouble is, it's looking a whole lot worse for everyone else. Brown will be alright, he isn't going to starve, and will always get work ( if he needed to !)

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Yeah I just realised it was you :) I knew it must have been a HPCer! :D Good comment B)

I say 8 years min as the boom was ~10 years, so the fall should be the same, but assuming housing hysteria kicks in a little, take off a couple years. But hopefully it'll never get out of control again.

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Just new ones.

Another little present from our European lords and masters.

Coming to business soon too!

I think EPCs are a good idea, whether they are EU induced or not. It indicates to people just how expensive it will be to heat a place and whether any improvements will help. A good bargaining tool for old, inefficient house, especially if gas, oil, electricity rocket up in price again.

I didn't know it was coming in for businesses soon, but it should help drive rents down on old, cold units as well.

As for the rest of the HIP, well......................................

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Yeah I just realised it was you :) I knew it must have been a HPCer! :D Good comment B)

I say 8 years min as the boom was ~10 years, so the fall should be the same, but assuming housing hysteria kicks in a little, take off a couple years. But hopefully it'll never get out of control again.

It will get out of control again in about 15 years time. People never, never learn.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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