Britain On The Brink Of Depression Economists Warn

[Guest mattsta1964]

Oh dear

Telegraph is has now crossed from economic downturn, through recession and heads straight for the jugular.......the 'D' word

Britain is heading for economic depression for the first time since the 1930s, economists have warned.

A couple of corkers in here

Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, likened the British economy to a Ponzi scheme — a fraudulent debt mountain like that allegedly used by the New York hedge fund manager Bernard Madoff.

“What I find amazing is that people aren’t really nailing Gordon Brown and [bank of England Governor] Mervyn King for this,” he said. “At least in the US they had the excuse of the arrival of sub-prime — a new sector of the market. We didn’t really have anything similar but we ended up with a bigger national Ponzi scheme than the US.”

Yep. I agree

And I am very angry that the Bank of England has escaped any scrutiny for its part in this calamity.

As for McBroon, his alibi that the crisis is all the fault of those pesky Americans is looky shakier every day.

Guillotines ready everyone?

[spivT]

We didn't have a subprime ? Really ? So all those wannabe BTL landlords on benefits with no provable income and those on minimum wage or worse with existing unsecured debts offered six-figure mortgages with no money down aren't subprime ? Our 'Alt-a' market is probably a lot bigger than our subprime (which speaks volumes about our bubble) and I imagine the US subprime materialized and grew bigger than ours, but we sure as hell did/do have one. that's my impression anyway.

[guitarman001]

Is there a technical definition... must it last something like 6 months?

[Gone baby gone]

We didn't have a subprime ? Really ? So all those wannabe BTL landlords on benefits with no provable income and those on minimum wage or worse with existing unsecured debts offered six-figure mortgages with no money down aren't subprime ? Our 'Alt-a' market is probably a lot bigger than our subprime (which speaks volumes about our bubble) and I imagine the US subprime materialized and grew bigger than ours, but we sure as hell did/do have one. that's my impression anyway.

It really is amazing isn't it. The denial is STILL there. I think that's why we always take longer to come out of recession than the US. We spend so long pretending we don't have a problem, during which time it's difficult to justify the kind of measures required to put things right.

[Alcoholic]

Is there a technical definition... must it last something like 6 months?

There doesn't seem to be a universallly agreed definition but a 10% contraction in GDP seems to be the most common.

[profitofdoom]

There doesn't seem to be a universallly agreed definition but a 10% contraction in GDP seems to be the most common.

I have a problem taking anything in the Torygraph seriously,it's a good newspaper and I buy it every day but the political slant is just too obvious.

[CviewUK]

Bearing in mind the unprecedented levels of personal debt, IMO we will be hearing the D word more frequently.

[BXLONDONMAN]

Oh dear

Telegraph is has now crossed from economic downturn, through recession and heads straight for the jugular.......the 'D' word

A couple of corkers in here

Yep. I agree

And I am very angry that the Bank of England has escaped any scrutiny for its part in this calamity.

As for McBroon, his alibi that the crisis is all the fault of those pesky Americans is looky shakier every day.

Guillotines ready everyone?

when do you want us to get the guillotines ready ???

[stormymonday_2011]

Albert Edwards, a strategist at Société Générale, likened the British economy to a Ponzi scheme — a fraudulent debt mountain like that allegedly used by the New York hedge fund manager Bernard Madoff.

Well the French should no a thing or two about fraudulent debt mountains since their banks and government are every bit as geared as their British counterparts. They have just been less honest about any write downs.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

http://artgoldhammer.blogspot.com/2008/10/...e-save-aig.html

[Lander]

Is there a technical definition... must it last something like 6 months?

12 months

[crashmonitor]

Walking up the High Street of a Derbyshire town on Friday this week it seems like we are already there.At least half the shops boarded up and total dereliction around former Woolies.

Doubt things have looked this grim since the 30s.

[AffordableHousing]

It really is amazing isn't it. The denial is STILL there.

I think that's why we always take longer to come out of recession than the US. We spend so long pretending we don't have a problem, during which time it's difficult to justify the kind of measures required to put things right.

[AffordableHousing]

It really is amazing isn't it. The denial is STILL there. I think that's why we always take longer to come out of recession than the US. We spend so long pretending we don't have a problem, during which time it's difficult to justify the kind of measures required to put things right.

I´ll do that again.

Some spanish keyboard probs.

por pavour, hola, gracias.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quote,

"It really is amazing isn't it.

The denial is STILL there.

I think that's why we always take longer to come out of recession than the US.

We spend so long pretending we don't have a problem, during which time it's difficult to justify the kind of measures

required to put things right."

The DENIAL can clearly be seen on the front pages of todays National Newspapers.

TAKE A LOOK FOR YOURSELF.

Yesterday it was reveiled that Britain is now "officially" in RECESSION.

(Which means we are in a Depression!!)

SO today, a day later, it would be PLASTERED all over the front pages.....right.

NO..... not one headline front page. mentioning RECESSION.

Just a small bit on the front page of the Sun.

Compleately toned down to suit brown.

Not wanting to scare us.

We are in RECESSION so they say, but no one has the guts to stick it on their front page.

So it might actually sink into peoples brains.

THAT IS DENIAL.

On a National scale.

THAT IS DENIAL.

On a National scale.

THAT IS DENIAL.

On a National scale.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

As for the definition of Depression.

I was saying yesterday after a long absance from HPC, (how did you all survive without me),

it is regarded by some to be 10% decline of GDP.

To get around that, many Countries economies are BORROWING 10% or more

of their GDP every year to prop up their GDP ..

Just as brown is doing.

Well over 10% of our GDP is now being borrowed and pumped back into the system.

All his latest bank scheames, 200 Billion here, 100 billion there.

And even then our GDP is expected to drop this year a good 2%, it could even get as high as 4 or 5% or more,

you see the callapse now!.

As Jim Rogers says!.

The rise in National debt for 2009 and 2010 is estimated by some going to be OVER 10% at least,

of GDP each successive year.

So in effect, IT IS a depression, and has been for a while now..

We are in a Depression just that as with the Unemployment figures, lagging behind as they are,

up till end of Nov 2008 there was 1,920,000 unemployed.

Another 77,000 signed onto the job seekers allowance in the month of Dec.

Making it 2 Million, (At least!!)

But ther liebour gov widely put about the 1,920,000 figure to make things look better than it is.

Therefore, an official Recession = a Depression.

And one that I would say will last a good 10 years.

Many others feel this in their bones.

Britain is knackered.

[crashmonitor]

Is there a technical definition... must it last something like 6 months?

The technical definition of a depression is -10% peak to trough GDP.

We have never had a technical depression in this country even in ''The Great Depression'' of the 1930s.

If the definition of a depression(referring to a previous answer) was a mere 12 months then the 1990s would qualify.Five consecutive quarters of-1.2,-0.5,-0.1,-0.3 & -0.4.The numbers were actually tiny then and the recession was a walk in the park,with the housing market flat-lining and shares holding up.Most personal balance sheets rose.

This time things are cataclysmic with both housing already down a quarter and shares 40% off their 1999 peak.Personal balance sheets are loaded with debt and assets in meltdown.

We are on course for TWO-1.0% quarterly GDP falls.The previous worst six month GDP series was -0.8% and -1.8%(January-June 1980).Brown is about to produce the worst six month period in known UK peacetime history.There seems little doubt,as this is just the start,that this will dwarf the 1980s and 1990s recessions.

The only question is do we achieve -10% peak to trough GDP for the first time in recorded history.

Brown has achieved the impossible to turn the dream legacy of Clarke and Major into the Mother of all downturns.

[juvenal]

Is there a technical definition... must it last something like 6 months?

It's when the queue for the soup kitchen has to part to let the hunger marchers through.

[Prescience]

Note the date!

http://axisoflogic.com/artman/publish/article_27437.shtml

[Dangerous Woman]

when do you want us to get the guillotines ready ???

I can be there with my knitting. Vive la Revolution!

[Pindar]

We didn't have a subprime ? Really ? So all those wannabe BTL landlords on benefits with no provable income and those on minimum wage or worse with existing unsecured debts offered six-figure mortgages with no money down aren't subprime ? Our 'Alt-a' market is probably a lot bigger than our subprime (which speaks volumes about our bubble) and I imagine the US subprime materialized and grew bigger than ours, but we sure as hell did/do have one. that's my impression anyway.

We called it self-certification but it's the same thing. Lenders like Birmingham Midshires, Bristol and West, Band of Ireland, "The Money Store" all had products for people with no proof of income and with impaired credit.

It's a joke that this is never officially acknowledged. McStalin Broadcasting Corporation and a pliant press have a lot to answer for but all the time the effect on the property portfolios of the media moguls was positive, they were in no hurry to report financial recklessness by lenders.

It was like ramping a commodity and giving people credit that you knew they could never repay knowing full well that you could cash-out at the top and leave the rest to foot the bill, just like any other pyramid scheme.

[Shrink Proof]

Yesterday it was reveiled that Britain is now "officially" in RECESSION.

(Which means we are in a Depression!!)

SO today, a day later, it would be PLASTERED all over the front pages.....right.

NO..... not one headline front page. mentioning RECESSION.

Just a small bit on the front page of the Sun.

This was the lead in The Guardian today.

This was The Independent.

[Tonkers]

It's when the queue for the soup kitchen has to part to let the hunger marchers through.

That's a keeper!

[0q0]

I think I heard 75% increase in unemployment even in the 'safe' city of St Albans.

Meanwhile, Essex County Council and Birmingham Council are in the process of loaning direct to businesses, from what I understand.

If those businesses go ti ts up, the local council taxpayer will be the loser.

If those councils had lost money in Icesave, why start chucking it about now with local business too? It might've been a better idea to invest in local business before, where you can see more easily what you're getting, but to do it now seems a little daft!

[the-sign-jacker]

hunger. hunger. hunger.

you wont believe it now as tescos is full, but soon a full time weeks wage will struggle to feed a family of four.

food will be the new bubble. and theres little in the way of wage inflation to help it out. in fact we just gave away 2 generations tax income. that needs to be collected on top of that.

a complete mismanagement of the economy from government to media to public.

a false economy. a mirage, not a miracle. and the storm clouds grow darker each day.

i was expecting each month, but the pace is something else.

about marchh-june the imported inflation will start to hit the shelves at the same time as the job losses.

this is going to be one heck of a storm.

crime already rising.

[Mick Dundee]

Bring back debtors prisons and poor houses. There isnt enough social housing to go around, Gordon.

[StoppedClock]

Can someone post a link for this article, I can't finds it online

[yellerkat]

Can someone post a link for this article, I can't finds it online

They tucked it away somewhere. Here's the LINK.