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StainlessSteelCat

After The Dust Has Settled...

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I don't believe there will ever be a recovery, not in the sense of 'a return to what it was like before'. The whole system will fail and I think we'll be much better off for it, too.

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Depends what you mean by normal. Normal could be the mid 90s trough in terms of hpi and employment. I can see that kind of recovery happening but back to 2006/7 - nah not a chance. At least not until this current mess has become a distant memory (and I won't be around for that).

Edited by greencat

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Nope, not even mid-90s. I think the whole lot will keel over and something entirely new will spring up in its place. If people don't learn from this mess that the single-minded pursuit of wealth for its own sake is a waste of one's life and decide to rebuild it, then they deserve the unending cycle of misery they'll be plunging themselves into.

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Nope, not even mid-90s. I think the whole lot will keel over and something entirely new will spring up in its place. If people don't learn from this mess that the single-minded pursuit of wealth for its own sake is a waste of one's life and decide to rebuild it, then they deserve the unending cycle of misery they'll be plunging themselves into.

Agreed!

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Most "experts" have difficulty in accurately forecasting 3 months into the future let alone 10 to 20 years.

Perhaps we are the experts and they are all financialy biased

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Now That The Party’s Over

I thought it was the job of the BBC to ridicule and humiliate anyone who dissents from their world-view? How can the party be over?

I was never at that party and only know one person who was.

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Depends what you mean by normal. Normal could be the mid 90s trough in terms of hpi and employment. I can see that kind of recovery happening but back to 2006/7 - nah not a chance. At least not until this current mess has become a distant memory (and I won't be around for that).

what is normal for us never stays the same it will keep being differn't every time,,no we can never go back to what was,,where are we going to be in 10 years time who knows not even HMG knows that !!

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Experts sch-mexperts.

Unfortunately, when it comes to such an emotional thing as a house, and especially as Britain sees a house as a store of wealth, all these experts become salesmen. How £30k of materials and £40k of land = £150 (or more) of property is pure insanity.

Nobody can predict what will happen in a month for gods sake! If you can, just give me the first 3 digits of the National Lottery for tonight. I will gamble on the rest!

What do we know for certain?

1. Property has been speculated to the max.

2. People have bankrupted themselves over it, at a scale never seen before in Britain.

3. The money supply has reached terminal velocity and inflation is just beginning to ramp.

4. Realization of the idea of failure in the system is beginning to sink into populace.

How do we get out of this hole? I suggest we start prosecuting the scumbag politicians, bankers, and citizens that have been both fuelling and feasting off of the nations greed.

We are a tiny island nation. In the past it was possible to set up a colony and start taxing the locals whilst not representing them. Not any more.

We are totally FU€KED, and ten years seems too short of a prediction....more like a generation or two....or never.

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A 10-20 year timescale could very easily become never in the forseeable future.

'cos during that time, an ever-growing number of people with substantial assets will be retiring, and seeking to cash in. Which puts long-term downward pressure on asset prices. The long-term BTL bubble unwinds, creating over-supply.

The good news is, that creates opportunities for a productive generation, even those without inherited wealth. That is, if we allow sufficient pension collapse that they're not completely crippled by the burden of paying for the retired.

[i'll be of pensionable age in well under 20 years, but I expect still to be working not scrounging so long as I have my health]

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Yep, couldn't agree more with that.

Everyone is guessing.

Heard the 'When Will It End' question put to a panel of 'experts' on the World Service. (Since it was about 4.30 am, there were no Labour apologists around.)

Guesstimates varied, but all agreed that two things had to happen before any UK recovery could be contemplated.

1. Reform and downsizing of the bloated financial sector

2. House prices must fall a lot further

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Guest theboltonfury
Yep, couldn't agree more with that.

Everyone is guessing.

True. Some of these forecasters are like premier league refs. They like the attention therefor they say stuff that they know will be the headline and get them in the news.

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I think it's very possible to forecast the future.

Simply dismissing everyone as guessing is rather too blunt for my liking.

If I were asked to guess something that might happen in the future I could say..

A ship will turn up at port on tuesday with four elephants on board.

If I had watched said ship, set sail for said port the previous week, before flying ahead myself, you could hardly call my statement a guess.

Although it will be exposed to several risks, as the most likely outcome it can be called a forecast.

In the markets people make forecasts based on things they know (or they ought to). They do not guess.

However, over the past five years I think many investors were unwittingly guessing as they had become so misinformed regarding the true price of risk.

Money was too plenty for too long as too many people around the world borrowed money unaware of the fact there are not enough resources in the world for another two billion Americans.

In the future westerners will consume less than they do today.

Anyone think I'm guessing? Care to make a bet?

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We are totally FU€KED, and ten years seems too short of a prediction....more like a generation or two....or never.

I think we will never recover, and no-one sensible is ever going to build or buy a house ever again - it's clearly a stupid thing to do, much too risky. I don't think this house price crash is *ever* going to end - it's just going to go on and on.

The costs to build a house, never mind buy the land, pay the planning fees (£20,000 Section 106 taxes for a 4-bed house in my area), the architects, the estate agents and so on, are £1000 per square metre, or about £100 a square foot. Therefore for a typical 3-bed house of 1200 sq ft, the build cost alone is £120,000. And the Government will be increasing this by another 20% or so by 2015 because of all their new "green" regulations. Madness.

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Experts sch-mexperts.

Unfortunately, when it comes to such an emotional thing as a house, and especially as Britain sees a house as a store of wealth, all these experts become salesmen. How £30k of materials and £40k of land = £150 (or more) of property is pure insanity.

Nobody can predict what will happen in a month for gods sake! If you can, just give me the first 3 digits of the National Lottery for tonight. I will gamble on the rest!

What do we know for certain?

1. Property has been speculated to the max.

2. People have bankrupted themselves over it, at a scale never seen before in Britain.

3. The money supply has reached terminal velocity and inflation is just beginning to ramp.

4. Realization of the idea of failure in the system is beginning to sink into populace.

How do we get out of this hole? I suggest we start prosecuting the scumbag politicians, bankers, and citizens that have been both fuelling and feasting off of the nations greed.

We are a tiny island nation. In the past it was possible to set up a colony and start taxing the locals whilst not representing them. Not any more.

We are totally FU€KED, and ten years seems too short of a prediction....more like a generation or two....or never.

and i thought i was bearish.

a quality post. i liked it all.

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I was never at that party and only know one person who was.

Me too. I thought the last ten years were pretty tough actually. God knows what the next ten will be like :unsure:

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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