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Dr Renter

House Prices Could Fall For 6 Years

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Was watching the news tonight on the BBC and the economics editor quoted an American recession study. It showed that the average recession lasts 2 years and a house price crash associated with a recession averages 6 years. Wonder what the sheeple thought of that. Bring it on.

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Was watching the news tonight on the BBC and the economics editor quoted an American recession study. It showed that the average recession lasts 2 years and a house price crash associated with a recession averages 6 years. Wonder what the sheeple thought of that. Bring it on.

Well that Chris Marsden bloke states that it takes an equal amount of time for house price bubbles to drop back to the price they rose from back to a sane level , which means hmm 6 years...

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Was watching the news tonight on the BBC and the economics editor quoted an American recession study. It showed that the average recession lasts 2 years and a house price crash associated with a recession averages 6 years. Wonder what the sheeple thought of that. Bring it on.

The recession studies they were probably quoting are probably out of touch with this recession so it could be even longer than 6 years. If, for example, it is 10 years then the people who five years ago took out Interest Only Mortgages (with no backup/endowment of which there are many) will never escape the debt. Any money they may make at the end of a 20 or 25 year mortgage, after paying off the original amount, will be peanuts and obviously these people will be nearing or at retirement age. What will happen?

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15% drop for 6 years = ....

Prices wouldn't drop at 15% for 6 years (I think!!) The falls will lessen in a year or 2 and they'll just continue to drift downwards. Whatever, it's still good for us and bad for existing homeowners. (I rent, can you tell?)

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Prices wouldn't drop at 15% for 6 years (I think!!) The falls will lessen in a year or 2 and they'll just continue to drift downwards. Whatever, it's still good for us and bad for existing homeowners. (I rent, can you tell?)

i think they mean 6 years to 'recover' (inflate) to previous values. no idea what data they are using.

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Wishful thinking, at a guess!

shameless bump!

but I reckon 5yrs

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i think they mean 6 years to 'recover' (inflate) to previous values. no idea what data they are using.

Average recession in UK in the past lasted for 2 quarters.

Last 2 recessions, however, lasted for 5 quarters each.

The problem is that this is not seen as a recession by economists anymore, its is a DEPRESSION.

Even in the 1930s UK avoided a depression - so you make your own mind about its length now

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Any money they may make at the end of a 20 or 25 year mortgage, after paying off the original amount, will be peanuts and obviously these people will be nearing or at retirement age. What will happen?

They'll be mill boys, 'til their dying day.

Edited by Red Kharma

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No amount of funny hand movements and gestures by the PM will convince anyone that this crash is going to be anything but catastophic.

Bring back the days when politicians and people could talk about things without having all those dodgy choreographed and rehearsed arm and hand movements.

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Prices wouldn't drop at 15% for 6 years (I think!!) The falls will lessen in a year or 2 and they'll just continue to drift downwards. Whatever, it's still good for us and bad for existing homeowners. (I rent, can you tell?)

Funny how some think they will not be affected in any shape of form.

Wait until all hell breaks loose :o

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Was watching the news tonight on the BBC and the economics editor quoted an American recession study. It showed that the average recession lasts 2 years and a house price crash associated with a recession averages 6 years. Wonder what the sheeple thought of that. Bring it on.

Worked with guy who bought in 1990 and his house price recovered to what he paid in 2000,these things are to quickly forgoten <_<

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The recession studies they were probably quoting are probably out of touch with this recession so it could be even longer than 6 years. If, for example, it is 10 years then the people who five years ago took out Interest Only Mortgages (with no backup/endowment of which there are many) will never escape the debt. Any money they may make at the end of a 20 or 25 year mortgage, after paying off the original amount, will be peanuts and obviously these people will be nearing or at retirement age. What will happen?

They will get a government bail out...backed by yes....the prudent hard working savers that are being stiched up on a daily basis.....so...some advice, borrow as much as you can because some other poor fecker will have to pay it back for you...

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They will get a government bail out...backed by yes....the prudent hard working savers that are being stiched up on a daily basis.....so...some advice, borrow as much as you can because some other poor fecker will have to pay it back for you...

You wish :lol:or you hope

Edited by Itsalongwaydown

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15% drop for 6 years = ....

No, it'll be more like:

2008 -15%

2009 -10%

2010 -5%

2011 -2%

2012 -1%

2013 0%

2014 +1%

2015 +2%

2016 +5%

2017 +10%

2018 +15%

So I predict 2007 levels by the 2020s.

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No, it'll be more like:

2008 -15%

2009 -10%

2010 -5%

2011 -2%

2012 -1%

2013 0%

2014 +1%

2015 +2%

2016 +5%

2017 +10%

2018 +15%

So I predict 2007 levels by the 2020s.

I suspect the trough might be flatter and the up turn steeper.

More like:

2008 -15%

2009 -13%

2010 -1%

2011 0%

2012 1%

2013 -1%

2014 0%

2015 -1%

2016 +10%

2017 +20%

2018 +20%

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Just as the Tories get voted out and just in time for Brown to pick up the reins again.

As has often been said on here, the British Labour Party are going into the dustbin of history. They're not coming back anytime soon.

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As has often been said on here, the British Labour Party are going into the dustbin of history. They're not coming back anytime soon.

Is that the landfill dustbin or the recycling dustbin? And do we get fined if we put them in the wrong one?

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Don't look for a quick recovery, if you look at past experience of great busts. If you go by past bubbles in history, nickel, dot. com. tulips, shares in 1929 etc , = Shares did not start to get popular again until the early 1970s when we got another bull market and then a bust. The early 1970s a Nickel mining share called poseidon went from 2p to 140GBP a share and came down as quick, the dot com share bubble of 8 years ago, most of these company's are gone. look at the Nasdaq index now. It is usually a generation or more before you see a bubble in the same commodity or property again, I am talking a major bust ,and not a correction. Shares might come back quicker this time but if we get a 90% bust like 1929-1933 the damage will take decades to recover from. Housing will hit a bottom in 5-10 years from now and not do much for many a long year, most people will not see 2007 prices again in their lifetime, I mean real prices adjusted for inflation, just in case the printing gets out of hand.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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