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Alfie Moon

Worcester Crashing Big Time

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One or two people have recently posted comments reporting, anecdotally, that selling activity is picking up. Not so in Worcester. Using property Bee to track activity, it can be seen that Michael Tuck in Warndon, for example have so far this month only had 1 property go under offer and 1 go SSTC. This is despite marketing properties such as:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...on%26index%3D30

Might put in a -30% offer myself.

Unfortunately in Worcester most of the Estate Agents are still deluded into thinking that they can beat the market and still put properties on at peak 2007 prices. Speaking with a range of Worcester Estate Agents none have shown any understanding of the market or economics. Most Agency outlets are working with skeleton staff levels - and perhaps it is the least able people left as staff in these Estate Agencies ... i.e. those without the brain to realise that they should have jumped ship at least a year ago to find a more recession proof job elsewhere.

Job losses are certainly picking up apace in Worcester and the High Street seems to have more and more empty shop units and shops with closing down sales going on each week. On trains and in pubs you can hear people talking about redundancies happening at their work place all the time. There is a real atmosphere of fear developing here.

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It's the same anywhere with young EAs though. They've only ever known prices go up.

And worcester is well overpriced.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sa...y-19193852.html

30 October 2008

* Price changed: from '£6,000,000' to '£4,500,000' [Found by mogga]

01 February 2008

* Initial entry found. [Found by ottomattik]

Nuns in denial. They want the place kept as one building.

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Agree with both Alfie Moon and chichi

I am in the process of moving my life to Worcester and I have been trying to negotiate with EAs and also private individuals as well as institutions for sale and I have to say asking prices are deluded.

In my estimation, asking prices have to halve in some cases. The place has huge future potential but there is no manufacturing or serious professional services industry in Worcester and prices have to fall to reflect that. Only if residential and commercial prices get realistic then the place can start to recover. Reminds me a lot of York about 30 years ago.

I have a friend who knows Worcester really well and she told me seriously a year ago not to buy a house in Worcester until the bottom is reached as the place always spikes up in a boom and then collapses. A taxi driver even told me that he bought commercial property years ago - the price collapsed in the early 1990s and he sold out for 50% off what he had bought for.

Residential rents are certainly falling and have fallen at least 10% in the last 6 months due to forced landlords who would like to sell but cannot. There are loads of empty shops everywhere as well so commercial rents must be collapsing althougth I am not in that market.

That said I have seen a few places where older people selling houses are clearly getting a bit desperate and starting to drop their asking price.

Goodness knows how the 10 - 12 estate agents near Foregate St are survivng. They are not selling anything.

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That said I have seen a few places where older people selling houses are clearly getting a bit desperate and starting to drop their asking price.

That's an interesting point that applies to just about anywhere. The boomer generation are reaching retirement, most have no mortgage and they will only get one hit at downsizing.

The boomer generation doesn't have time to ride out the downturn; because they need the cash now for retirement. And some will be quite happy with 50% off peak value, because even at 50% they will get back many times what they paid for it. Not forgeting that they also have the expereince of living through two previous downturns, so should be under no illusions.

It only takes one worried downsizer to break ranks for a quick sale to set a new price floor

Edited by Sonic the Hedge Fund

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It only takes one worried downsizer to break ranks for a quick sale to set a new price floor

I intend to be there to take full advantage and offer my sympathies.

Edited by Wad

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Hmmm.. well I've got my fingers crossed, not sure about the lack of manufacturers we have boche who are expanding and hoping to create 1000 new jobs in worc, and a couple of others...I do know that worcester was hit heavily in the last crash after prices rose extra high...

Edited by moosetea

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I am in the process of moving my life to Worcester and I have been trying to negotiate with EAs and also private individuals as well as institutions for sale and I have to say asking prices are deluded.

In my estimation, asking prices have to halve in some cases. The place has huge future potential but there is no manufacturing or serious professional services industry in Worcester and prices have to fall to reflect that. Only if residential and commercial prices get realistic then the place can start to recover. Reminds me a lot of York about 30 years ago.

Cawleys is down to the husband and wife owners and one employee - they are averaging 2 properties a week and the situation is dire.

And you are right, Worcester has huge potential, a beautiful, quiet city, fabulous Cathedral, Racecourse, County Cricket Ground (except it keeps getting flooded and is almost bankrupted).

The University is also opening a state of the art 2nd campus and library in central Worcester.

Houses for sale are all but static and I've noticed a lot of 'to let' boards going up.

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Some good comments on the Worcester News article highlighted by noddage. Might add to it myself.

Yes, I passed Cawleys the other day and it is looking very sad. Their withdrawl from Rightmove, I suspect, is part of their downward spiral - less advertising = less likely to improve transaction levels.

Talked to a senior engineer recently who has contacts all over Worcestershire and the West Midlands. He said that it is very likely that much of the South Worcestershire Development Plan will be put on hold - certainly whilst the recession lasts and probly some way into the actual recovery. Projects already started, he said, are likely to suffer very badly and help some companies go bust. He said that his own company is going to make 10% of the workforce redundant over the next few months, and this is likely to be only the beginning of the process. He is coming up for retirement himself and said that although he has lived through a few recessions he has never seen anything like this before and said the speed and depth of the problems are frightening a lot of senior people which is filtering down to the shop floor levels of workers.

I suspect that the social deterioration associated with economic decline is also going to happen at a fast pace and I don't think Worcester will escape this. Like most places Worcester already has 'social problems' that will only grow exponetially with the petrol of economic recession.

Still, Worcester Estate Agents will still tell you that the media are wrong and that the Government will save the day and house prices will soon be going up like a rocket. The Estate Agents seem really angry with the media - are people finding this elsewhere?

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We only need a couple more comments added to the Worcester News article to get it highlighted in the 'Most Comments' section which will get the comments seen and read (and possibly debated) by people in Worcester. It would be good if 2 or 3 HPC'ers could add short comments.

As highlighted by noddage see:

http://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/local/...n_all_time_low/

Also wanted to add that I really like Worcester and think it has great potential ... but think it has some very hard times ahead. Just hope the recession (depression?) doesn't do too much damage to the City.

Edited to try and correct the URL link

Edited by Alfie Moon

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Yep - it's a case of fingers crossed for Worcester. It's lost so much of its traditional industry over a very long time. At the moment the city's only success story is the University, but now there seems to be a campaign against it building.

For example:

http://www.worcesternews.co.uk/news/405665...still_be_solved

It's incredible they can't see the benefits of all the paying foreign students (many of them very pretty) choosing to live and study in Worcester.

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Unfortunately in Worcester most of the Estate Agents are still deluded into thinking that they can beat the market and still put properties on at peak 2007 prices.

Ditto Shrewsbury.

No sign of HPC here.Been waiting since 2004. However, patienece is a virtue I managed to restrain the obvious impulse of setting up a BTL abroad. Hong Kong was apparently hot at one stage.

Anyways. Nothing happening here. Some 3 bedroom semis coming onto market at 300k+.

Once we get ASKING prices 20% below 2007 peak prices, then I know we've arrived. Until then nothing much has changed since 2004.

Except that we are on the brink of a depression and a substantial proportion of posters heer will be made unemployed in the next 5 years.

Which apparanetly is a good thing.

Oh! A thread on house prices. Excellent.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
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