The Ftse100 Is Now Below 4000

[Nationalist]

It's dropped through its 4,000 support level after spending a couple of days bouncing off.

How long has it been since we last saw the three thousands?

When Nu Labour came to power it was 6700!

[DoctorJ]

Recently the FTSE has been very stubborn around 4000. Although it has been predicted that it may reach 2500 - eek!

[Lepista]

How long has it been since we last saw the three thousands?

erm, the end of November?

[Wait & See]

BARCLAYS 52.00 -7.20 -12.16%

Another bleak day down at Barclays. Nationalisation looms large on the horizon for this amature outfit.

[Moo]

It's dropped through its 4,000 support level after spending a couple of days bouncing off.

When Nu Labour came to power it was 6700!

Oh c'mon, stop having a go at Gordon. He's managed to provide affordable shares for us.

.... I'll get my coat.

[deflation]

It's dropped through its 4,000 support level after spending a couple of days bouncing off.

How long has it been since we last saw the three thousands?

When Nu Labour came to power it was 6700!

Sorry? It was about 4000 in 1997. It peaked at 6900 ish in 2000.

Edit: It was last 3000 in 1995.

Edited January 23, 2009 by deflation

[Converted Lurker]

Sorry? It was about 4000 in 1997. It peaked at 6900 ish in 2000.

there is the obvious argument that after factoring in inflation we're actually back to 1985ish levels...

[yellerkat]

erm, the end of November?

November 21st, 3781.

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=INDEXFTSE%3A.FTSE

[deflation]

there is the obvious argument that after factoring in inflation we're actually back to 1985ish levels...

Surely the fact that its an index negates that. After all, shareholders received dividends on the share and company performance and profits. This is your 'interest' so to speak if the FTSE was cash.

[The Masked Tulip]

2995 by end of year IMPO - perhaps lower.

[DoctorJ]

2995 by end of year IMPO - perhaps lower.

A slow drawn out painful process then - rather than a sharp shock followed by stagnation

[VeryMeanReversion]

Surely the fact that its an index negates that. After all, shareholders received dividends on the share and company performance and profits. This is your 'interest' so to speak if the FTSE was cash.

Earnings generally rise in line with inflation so assuming a constant P/E, the price should also rise in line with inflation.

Not all of the nominal gain in company equity is paid out in dividends.

I think converted lurkers point is valid and that we are back to 1985 levels. I'll be buying back in at 3600.

VMR.

[Nationalist]

Bear in mind also that the FTSE is an upward biased indicator - underperforming companies get kicked out of the index.

It seems it did sink this low in late November.

[PalmerEldritch]

2995 by end of year IMPO - perhaps lower.

This is impossible.

There must be some mistake.

I was assured by a poster on here that there would be a 30%-50% increase in the value of the FTSE in the 3 months from Nov08.

Now I've gone and lost all my imaginary money.

[Realistbear]

When the FTSE is at 3000 and Dow down to 6000 it may be time to start putting together a LONG TERM strategy* to get back into the market. Some stocks will do well:

http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting...reat-Depression

I will probably begin a slow** accumulation of Honeywell stock and have a think about GE--mainly because of healthcare and energy divisions. Some will do well out of the rebuilding that will have to be undertaken. Infrastructure stocks especially. US market mostly.

__________________

* Strategy: a plan or series of steps in preparation for something. Not the actual execution of same.

** Slow-- not all at once.

[Converted Lurker]

Surely the fact that its an index negates that. After all, shareholders received dividends on the share and company performance and profits. This is your 'interest' so to speak if the FTSE was cash.

damn you for being so reasonable

[Joey Buttafueco Jr]

there is the obvious argument that after factoring in inflation we're actually back to 1985ish levels...

Then there is the obvious argument that you are ignoring dividends

[contractor]

This is impossible.

There must be some mistake.

I was assured by a poster on here that there would be a 30%-50% increase in the value of the FTSE in the 3 months from Nov08.

Now I've gone and lost all my imaginary money.

I think that poster did a runner too.

[E14]

I thought this would happen when it was around 4500 a few months back.

Snap up BA if they drop to 120p and C&W very good long term bet (taking lots of Business from BT)

[The Masked Tulip]

When the FTSE is at 3000 and Dow down to 6000 it may be time to start putting together a LONG TERM strategy* to get back into the market. Some stocks will do well:

I will probably begin a slow** accumulation of Honeywell stock and have a think about GE--mainly because of healthcare and energy divisions. Some will do well out of the rebuilding that will have to be undertaken. Infrastructure stocks especially. US market mostly.

__________________

* Strategy: a plan or series of steps in preparation for something. Not the actual execution of same.

** Slow-- not all at once.

I agree.

General Dynamics (Electric Boat Division) will be a good long-term bet because China is building a huge nuclear sub fleet and the US had actually cut back substantially on its nuke sub fleet, opting for cut-down cut-price (only a few billion a piece) as they began phasing out the California Class hunter-killers due to no perceived threat from Russia.

Their newer fleet, which has many advantages over the previous Class, are very good but they simply have not built them in sufficient numbers nor built them with all the gadgets the Navy wants due to cost cutting. I suspect now that China is building a large nuclear fleet, and in 2007 surfaced a sub next to the US Nimitz, that the Yanks will end up scaling up their sub fleet.

[the-sign-jacker]

When Nu Labour came to power it was 6700!

it was 6700 in 1997 ?

[Gone baby gone]

it was 6700 in 1997 ?

No:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^FTSE#c...ource=undefined

It did get there sometime in 1999, pre dot-com bust and in 2007.

[A.steve]

Not over yet though, is it?

Definitely not - the banks are still dropping in value at a remarkable rate - strongly indicating that the strength of the banking industry is still not assured.

I think the story for 2009 will be 'death by a thousand cuts' - I think volatility will diminish, and we'll see slower declines - of the sort that make it much more difficult to profit by short-selling, but also nigh impossible to profit by investing long... the real-economy will slowly influence profits and then expectations of future profits.

[A.steve]

You're a real joy aren't you. Didn't your mother breast feed you or something.

Whoops, that was me being up-beat, in fact - I feel more optimistic for the future than I have since 1998... though, I have to admit, one can never have too much exposure to breasts - I'm even growing a pair of my own, for emergencies, you understand?

The point is this: so far, no 'things' are being destroyed; no-one's life is threatened by this - and there are no foreign forces acting to suppress our freedoms... what's going on is global - there's no-where to hide... and that's a good thing. What this means, as far as I can see, is that we are going to see a significant upheaval; significant increases in social mobility; new opportunities and horizons. Whatever the numbers say, no real wealth has been destroyed... we're just discovering what supposed wealth was ephemeral - that's no bad thing... people tend to be happier when they can be confident.

I commented that I expected stock markets to fall - and my basis for that is that credit is harder to come by - which necessarily means that profits and prices determined (indirectly) by that credit will decrease. As exciting as short-selling might be, however, that doesn't make it productive... those who engage in it are only transferring and not creating new wealth... though I admit that such activity need not be without merit. I think that profits in 2009 will arise only by doing something 'useful' - which, I think, will be a step forward for humanity.

Is that optimistic enough? If I wanted to spread doom, I'd question the probability of a bond crisis within the next couple of years.

Edited January 23, 2009 by A.steve

[The Knimbies who say No]

I agree.

Emerald Energy (EEN) are worth a look. FTSE-250's newest entrant and one of the best performing in 2007- up 70%. Plenty more where that came from imo.