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Barclays, Rbs And Lloyds Need £80bn More In Capital, Analyst Warns

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbys...lyst-warns.html

The warning will fuel fears that Royal Bank of Scotland, Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays may be fully nationalised, coming after a week in which share prices in all three banks have more than halved. Nomura added that the latest Government bail-out measures "do not change the key issue of the unknown and potentially unlimited losses of the banking system, and therefore whether it will ultimately require further capital injections".

Investors in banks have been spooked by worse-than-expected losses at HBOS and RBS. Comparing the current recession with the 1990s, Nomura estimates that over four years Barclays will record credit losses of £33bn, Lloyds £56bn and RBS £61bn.

Although the analysts expect the cumulative credit losses to be offset by profits, the banks will need fresh capital if the bad debts hit early and the profits come through at the end of the four years. Nomura added that there is clear evidence losses are mounting more quickly than expected.

"The latest announcements illustrate the pace at which capital is being absorbed," it said. "RBS raised about 410 basis points of tier-one capital, some 300 points of which has already been absorbed. At Barclays, capital raisings were equivalent to 390 points, of which 230 points have been deployed."

Barclays said that much of the capital depletion was due to exchange rate and regulatory movements, rather than trading losses.

"To remove downside risk to solvency, Barclays, RBS and Lloyds alone could require equity injections of £80bn. Support on this scale is unlikely without very significant dilution to existing shareholders and/or full-scale nationalisation."

Nomura does not break out each bank's potential capital needs but, extrapolating from its estimates, Barclays may need another £17.5bn, Lloyds £30bn and RBS £32.5bn.

So we can expect another govt bailout pretty soon then, perhaps even before the Treasury finalises Bailout 2.

The British certainly do farce like no other nation. Panto season is still in full swing.

Will shares respond positively on this news?

So Barclays haven't hedged themselves against exchanges then? Smart move guys, but it's not a trading loss so that's OK.

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What exactly would happen if we f*cked them off?

Its worth doing to one of them just to see the results, f*ck the jocky one off I say!

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Time to raise interest rates, exports arent going to save us, so lets boost the pound and raise those assets.

And go on holiday abroad.

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Time to raise interest rates, exports arent going to save us, so lets boost the pound and raise those assets.

And go on holiday abroad.

I'd rather gnaw my own nuts off than holiday in this country :)

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Given the disclosures today regarding October's cash injection from the Middle East, Barclays would be the obvious candidate to cut loose.

With the amount of money committed so far to Lloyds and RBS it will be a case of "in for a penny in for a pound".

Letting one go to the wall would also send a certain signal to the general public.

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Has this analyst ever produce a report in the past that has proved correct?

At this present time I bet he is squeezing his zits in the mirror before a potential hot date where there will be a lot of frenzied fumbling around and no action.

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Given the disclosures today regarding October's cash injection from the Middle East, Barclays would be the obvious candidate to cut loose.

With the amount of money committed so far to Lloyds and RBS it will be a case of "in for a penny in for a pound".

Not the right way to look at it though, there's no reason to upset the whole churn in the hope of getting a cup of spilled milk back. Decisions have to be based on where we are now.

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What exactly would happen if we f*cked them off?

Its worth doing to one of them just to see the results, f*ck the jocky one off I say!

I think its barclays.

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Not the right way to look at it though, there's no reason to upset the whole churn in the hope of getting a cup of spilled milk back. Decisions have to be based on where we are now.

Yes, I guess they need to look at the number of UK jobs at risk and the number of UK depositors who would qualify for compensation.

I very much doubt there would be public support for another bailout of the banks.

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Has this analyst ever produce a report in the past that has proved correct?

At this present time I bet he is squeezing his zits in the mirror before a potential hot date where there will be a lot of frenzied fumbling around and no action.

Do any analysts ever make accurate predictions?

However it's a reasonable guess that more money will be needed to prop up the banks. It's hardly rocket science.

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Perhaps they knew that the bonus was the last they would get and in effect it would be their redundancy payment when the bank fails?

I know a couple BARCboys worried at the moment...

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Time to raise interest rates, exports arent going to save us, so lets boost the pound and raise those assets.

And go on holiday abroad.

Totally agree..I`d like to go shopping in NYC one last time before I retreat into my bunker..

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Gordon Brown opened his wallet, took out the platinum card and in one smooth movement flicked

it toward the man with the bill.

"Put it all on that one"

The room was silenced, Carla Bruni stroked her thigh and twatted Sarkozy on the back of the head,

"That's what a real man looks like" she murmered, unable to control herself.

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Guest sillybear2
Gordon Brown opened his wallet, took out the platinum card and in one smooth movement flicked

it toward the man with the bill.

"Put it all on that one"

The room was silenced, Carla Bruni stroked her thigh and twatted Sarkozy on the back of the head,

"That's what a real man looks like" she murmered, unable to control herself.

"Of course, you know I saved the world... again"

sean_connery_dr_no_james_bond.jpg

Opps... wrong one :-

freckly_gordon_brown.jpg

Edited by sillybear2

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Not the right way to look at it though, there's no reason to upset the whole churn in the hope of getting a cup of spilled milk back. Decisions have to be based on where we are now.

I know it's not the right way to look at it, however on past performance I'm betting this will be the way they will go.

Don't get me wrong - it's certainly not the option I would want us to take.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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