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Rosepetal

Where Are We In The 'lifecycle Of A Bubble'?

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i think we are rapidly etering the fear stage now, you only have t turn on the telly/radio or see papers, or internet, to be blasted with an icy chill, of doom and gloom.

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Still in denial, I'm afraid. You can tell this by looking at the reaction to Obama. Everyone still has far too much hope. Too much belief.

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Guest mattsta1964
Still in denial, I'm afraid. You can tell this by looking at the reaction to Obama. Everyone still has far too much hope. Too much belief.

Not for much longer

I think we're on the threshold now

Sterling is going to get hammered and confidence in Broon is going to crumble

Things are going to accelerate much faster from here

It's headlong downwards now. We're on the steep slide

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Denial. Still stupid prices and not enough people under pressure for the fear stage. I think we are 12 months from fear. After that i expect things to move fast.

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The BBC interviewed a poor chap on the news who was out of work and looking for a job.

He asked when is all this going to end and the economy pick up so he can get a job.

I thought its a bit early in the game to be asking that, this is only the beginning.

I could understand someone asking that after a couple of years into a recession but not now.

Just shows what peoples expectations are.

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Feanial.

There may be an Obama bounce, followed by a realisation that he said "WE" and that means everyone has a long slog back, it ain't going to be a case of "Just add water."

Edited by The Last Bear

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The BBC interviewed a poor chap on the news who was out of work and looking for a job.

He asked when is all this going to end and the economy pick up so he can get a job.

I thought its a bit early in the game to be asking that, this is only the beginning.

I could understand someone asking that after a couple of years into a recession but not now.

Just shows what peoples expectations are.

Quite. There's some who, to use Jeff Randall's words, think that some magic fairy dust can reverse many years of deceptive economics in a few months. Personally, and boy do I hope I'm wrong, it looks to me like 4 to 8 years of problems, perhaps the first 4 or 5 being the worst. But it's like an earthquake with aftershocks.

i feel like a pocket of air on a sheet of bubble wrap.

like next in line and that...

I feel like the ghosts on the Pac-Man grid when he's had a power pellet. I see food prices rising daily (yet they tell us inflation is falling), banks wobbling, a government that's all mouth & trousers, an Opposition that seems weak, a whole basket of trouble.

Edited by The Last Bear

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I feel like the ghosts on the Pac-Man grid when he's had a power pellet. I see food prices rising daily (yet they tell us inflation is falling), banks wobbling, a government that's all mouth & trousers, an Opposition that seems weak, a whole basket of trouble.

i see your point about inflation rising and so on, but i dont get the connection to the pacman ghost though ?

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Guest BoomBoomCrash

Denial all the way. People have accepted the reality of the situation only so far as they can stomach. At some point they will have to accept the reality that the UK is bankrupt and that the world economy is going to wither and die.

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The BBC interviewed a poor chap on the news who was out of work and looking for a job.

He asked when is all this going to end and the economy pick up so he can get a job.

I thought its a bit early in the game to be asking that, this is only the beginning.

I could understand someone asking that after a couple of years into a recession but not now.

Just shows what peoples expectations are.

In the last 2 recessions, it took around 5-7 years from the start of a recession until job confidence was back and employers were increasing their employee quotas at a noticable pace. Remember that by the end of the 90's we still had 2million unemployed. The offical definition of a recession is pure horse droppings to anyone doing it hard. Unfortunatly this time it is differnet, I suspect 10 years+ of misery.

Just check out Japan where wages have in real and sometimes nominal terms deteriorated consistantly over the last 15 years or so, the goverment has fudged the inflation figures big time in order to keep interest rates artificialy low in order to fill the pockets of big companies and banks (via the carry trade scam) Meanwhile, there are no new salarymen with secure jobs, graduate wages have faded to nothing, no one can borrow much money for housing and pensioners can barely afford to eat in some cases. This is the model our goverments are persuing, but will fail on account of not having a bouyant world market to do buisness in. (Japan is also starting to fail under these policies) There was only room for one major country to get away with a devalued currency for so long. In the UK of course our employers will quickly go for the slash and burn method that they so love, rather than just bring down wages gradualy, so will be worse than japan.

For the likes of the informed we are at the fear stage and as many around here may know, job insecurity and unemployment may well take over that part of their brain which is now occupied with the concept of high/low house prices. For the Daily mail/express/sun etc readers, we are just well into the denial stage. I am well pleased that we sold our flat last November for a 15% discount from peak, while the rest of the local market have been trying to sell for the last 12+ months at peak price.

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Capitulation.

Just check out auction prices. (50% off peak, and predicted to go no lower)

The only people who are going to sell at low, low prices for the next 5 years are those who are selling due to death or reposession, plus a few forced to relocate. They are already, and will continue, to be forced into capitulation. But nobody else will be stupid enough, and the forced sellers will never be more than a tiny fraction of potential demand.

90% of property sales in the last decade have been from people who want to sell/move, rather than those who need to sell/move. That has now changed, and will not change back until prices have risen again. The average joe simply has no need or desire to sell in the middle of a price crash. And the less people sell, the lower transaction numbers that occur, then eventually (end of this year IMO) demand will outstrip supply and prices will rise again.

Even in the great depression, 80% of people kept their jobs, and 75% of companies survived and prospered. This will be nowhere near that bad, and once the first 6 months of 2009 media hype is past, most people will realise that it doesn't affect them, and stop panicking. Then the deal hunting will begin. Liquidity to return Q3 2009, and prices will start to recover Q1 2010.

Oh, and let the flaming begin in.......

3

3

1

GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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HAMISH_MCTAVISH

In 1999 Zimbabwe had an unemployment rate of about 50%. I believe it is well over 80% now.

With all that money swilling around everybody should be rich and employed, if not working three jobs.

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Capitulation.

Just check out auction prices. (50% off peak, and predicted to go no lower)

The only people who are going to sell at low, low prices for the next 5 years are those who are selling due to death or reposession, plus a few forced to relocate. They are already, and will continue, to be forced into capitulation. But nobody else will be stupid enough, and the forced sellers will never be more than a tiny fraction of potential demand.

90% of property sales in the last decade have been from people who want to sell/move, rather than those who need to sell/move. That has now changed, and will not change back until prices have risen again. The average joe simply has no need or desire to sell in the middle of a price crash. And the less people sell, the lower transaction numbers that occur, then eventually (end of this year IMO) demand will outstrip supply and prices will rise again.

Even in the great depression, 80% of people kept their jobs, and 75% of companies survived and prospered. This will be nowhere near that bad, and once the first 6 months of 2009 media hype is past, most people will realise that it doesn't affect them, and stop panicking. Then the deal hunting will begin. Liquidity to return Q3 2009, and prices will start to recover Q1 2010.

Oh, and let the flaming begin in.......

3

3

1

GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

However during the GDepression, the absolute vast majority of real people didnt have the silly debt levels we have today.And as for the UK we didnt have the massive 1920's boom that the yanks had so it was just 'poverty as usual' and to top it off the average worker had no choice but to rent. A completly different world.

People will sell at new prices just like in many areas of the UK they did last time, often with over 20% discounts on peak prices. In fact Ive just managed to devalue our street on account of being the first person there to actualy sell at a 15% discount of peak prices, whcih alread has p*ssed off the neighbour selling next door who has to sell for emigration reasons, this will reset the local prices, guaranteed. Yes people will hang on for life, but ultimatly lower prices will seem normal. Surveyer/Valuers will also reflect the new prices, 'your home is worth £££ not ££££'

And to top it off, when ever has a downturn ever lasted just a few months? last time was 5 years or more for real people, and that was a recession with somewhat less financial/economic worldwide cr*p going on in the background than today.

Go tell all this to your thinktank buddies/controller or whoever you aside with or represent.

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Denial. Have been noticing it more so this week. The silence is deafening but any comment results in pricked ears.

Agreed.

The government and most of the financial sector are still in complete denial.

Brown still thinks the housing market can be revived and some of the banks such as Barclays have not even started to write down their assets.

They are just dragging out the pain.

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People will sell at new prices just like in many areas of the UK they did last time, often with over 20% discounts on peak prices. In fact Ive just managed to devalue our street on account of being the first person there to actualy sell at a 15% discount of peak prices, whcih alread has p*ssed off the neighbour selling next door who has to sell for emigration reasons, this will reset the local prices, guaranteed.

Well done. You are now officially in the stupidest 5% of the population. So desperate to perpetuate the HPC that you lose your ar5e by selling cheaper than a genuine forced seller. Boy, thats some kind of financial genius at work there. I smell desperation...... Losing the job? Divorce? Come on, you can admit it here...... ;)

Go tell all this to your thinktank buddies/controller or whoever you aside with or represent.

Ah yes, the flaming, as predicted. Never mind, losing money isn't everything, you'll feel better soon. :lol:

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Sometimes it's a real pain in the a@@e being more informed. It takes everyone else so long to catch up and it drives me insane :angry:

I can't believe most people are still at the denial stage after all the bad news.

edited: for clarity

Edited by Rosepetal

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Sometimes it's a real pain in the a@@e being more informed. It takes everyone else so long to catch up and it drives me insane :angry:

I can't believe most people are still at the denial stage after all the bad news.

edited: for clarity

No i think the public are well and truly in the 'fear' stage , they have no idea about whats going on and what will happen , BUT they know theres real problems out there , here look at this graph from HPC graph page ............

http://www.housepricecrash.co.uk/graphs-bubble-lifecycle.php

defo FEAR now

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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