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redwing

Check Out The Tache On This Bear

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Boy, we've got a bearish one here.

Michael Hughes is an independent economist, and formerly Chief Investment Officer for Barings and Chief Economist for Barclays Capital.

[My bold]

I think this is the beginning of a new era. We'd had a remarkable period where people became very wealthy.

In fact by the end of 2007, the wealth of individuals in the UK was eight times their income and that compares with the long-term average of somewhere between three and four times.

So people became very wealthy and very confident because their house prices had gone up, share prices obviously had gone up, and so indeed had you know various other assets.

But of course that doesn't last and what we've now started to see is an adjustment in all these markets and I don't think we will see the confidence rebuilding probably for a generation, so I'd be looking at nearly twenty years.

In the case of the UK particularly where housing is such a big part of our lives, that is now being questioned as well because house prices frankly have only begun to fall and if you look back in time they peaked in the second quarter of 1989 but they didn't reach a trough until the fourth quarter of 1995, so that's six and a half years later.

Arguably this time it's going to be a bigger cycle.

The peak that we saw in 2007, in the third quarter of 2007, may not deliver a trough for about ten years onwards, somewhere around 2017.

So against that particular background, I don't think people are going to feel making money through housing is going to be as big a part of their lives as it has been.

Apparently, he's going to say this on BBC Radio 4 In Business this Thursday 22 Jan at 21:30.

Might be worth a listen.

Here's a link to the plug.

I like the man's style. We don't hit bottom for 10 years. Forget "green shoots" and "we'll back to 2007 prices by 2012".

Shame about the 'tache.

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Boy, we've got a bearish one here.

Michael Hughes is an independent economist, and formerly Chief Investment Officer for Barings and Chief Economist for Barclays Capital.

[My bold]

Apparently, he's going to say this on BBC Radio 4 In Business this Thursday 22 Jan at 21:30.

Might be worth a listen.

Here's a link to the plug.

I like the man's style. We don't hit bottom for 10 years. Forget "green shoots" and "we'll back to 2007 prices by 2012".

Shame about the 'tache.

Bears and moustaches in the same post?

You know what happens when you do that??

It brings those 'Gay Chubby Bear Dating' ads back to the site! :lol:

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Bears and moustaches in the same post?

You know what happens when you do that??

It brings those 'Gay Chubby Bear Dating' ads back to the site! :lol:

Yes, there is one as I speak. But what is worse is that when I visit OTHER sites that have spaces on them for adverts, on the basis of the sort of sites you visit, Gay Chubby Dating comes up again!! :ph34r:

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Speak for yourself. I sold up in 2005.

by we, I meant the community as a whole.

individuals count little.

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What he has NOT factored in is Gordo Hyper-inflation...........house prices WILL go in £ terms!

Mike

Wrong.

house prices WILL go DOWN in £ terms! They've gone down in £ terms for 18 months now. And they'll carry on down in £terms for a few months/years yet.

and in real terms, well....

They can only go up in real terms if we have hyper-deflation.

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Guest LongBlackKilt
Bears and moustaches in the same post?

You know what happens when you do that??

It brings those 'Gay Chubby Bear Dating' ads back to the site! :lol:

Zap-a-blairista would be a better option.

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Enough of this juvenile banter.

Can anyone find me a more bearish bear than this chap Michael Hughes?

He's suggesting the housing market will bottom in 2017. The most bearish I've heard so far - people like Jonathan Davies - forecast a bottom in about 2012.

What gets me on this web forum is there is a whole bunch of people who call themselves bears. Yet secretly hope to catch the next wave. This means for a 35 year old priced out FTB, that it's not worth buying till they're in their mid 40s. You could waste another 10 years not owning a house.

It's time to be disappointed. All of you who were thinking you were smart by waiting for a correction. This is the big one. Your home-owning fantasy is just as ephemeral as all the suckers who bought in the 2000s and now face a lifetime of hideous debt repayments.

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redwing

Plenty of posters on here who have suspected that the longer the bubble grew the more damage would be done, enough damage to cripple the economy (and the housing market with it) for up to decades or the best part of a working life.

Edit - this is now (and in 2005/2006/2007) was nothing like the 90's effort.

Edited by OnlyMe

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redwing

Plenty of posters on here who have suspected that the longer the bubble grew the more damage would be done, enough damage to cripple the economy (and the housing market with it) for up to decades or the best part of a working life.

Edit - this is now (and in 2005/2006/2007) was nothing like the 90's effort.

I really do feel that this is how it will be. The 30somethings especially who got sucked into the 'you must get on the property ladder' thing between 2001 and 2007 are going to be retiring into houses where they'll be lucky to have paid off the mortgage.

Mugs who thought that their BTL would be their pension spending their retirements in utter misery.

Boomers banking on a massive payout on downsizing - scuppered.

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For crying out loud. It's a pigging cycle. Those who thought it would be an endless boom now think it will be an endless bust, it's the same catastrophic error.

This linear obsession that permeates western thinking really irritates me.

Redwing seems to think the failing is in bears wanting to participate in an endless boom. Well I for one refuse to accept any chastisement, I just could not risk buying into the tail-end of a shoutingly obvious property boom. I don't care about the winning, so long as I don't lose, that is what being a bear is all about, steady as she goes risk aversion.

Fred Harrison has it right in my opinion, no real recovery for several more years, but most of the damage will be done in the first 30 months, of which we are approaching halfway.

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This linear obsession that permeates western thinking really irritates me.

Don`t psychologists call it `Dualism` - how Western minds have to split thinking into right/wrong -yes/no - black/whit- even gay/straight etc ...

I went on a course once through work which cost a fortune and there was some Scots bloke lecturing us on just such a thing ...

Apparently it`s a failing which goes back to the original Greek philosophers...

Edited by Wires 74

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Enough of this juvenile banter.

Can anyone find me a more bearish bear than this chap Michael Hughes?

He's suggesting the housing market will bottom in 2017. The most bearish I've heard so far - people like Jonathan Davies - forecast a bottom in about 2012.

I think one of the most respected posters on here, ?...!, would have a similar view.

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Don`t psychologists call it `Dualism` - how Western minds have to split thinking into right/wrong -yes/no - black/whit- even gay/straight etc ...

I went on a course once through work which cost a fortune and there was some Scots bloke lecturing us on just such a thing ...

Apparently it`s a failing which goes back to the original Greek philosophers...

I didn't know that it had a name, i shall look into that. Having studied Earth Sciences it was clear that most of nature follows the rhythms imposed by the earth orbit. the earths rotation, the lunar cycle, the solar cycle and on and on. A lot of late twentieth century "discoveries" were nowt more specific renunciation of the 18th century doctrine of Huttons, Principle of Uniformitarianism (the steady roll of processes through time, no vestige of a beginning, no prospect of an end). I recently read on the weather thread Joe Bastardi at accuweather was stating this very thing, that western weather forecasters had not accounted for the waning power of the sun in the solar cycle cooling our climate in the next 30 years.

I think this thinking is inherited through christian beliefs that this is the best of all worlds built for our comfort. Purist hubris, that is, humanity is outside of nature.

Man's nature echoes these cycles. Generational politics flattens out the cycle in the short term but the rhythms exist, note the distortion on society resulting from the population spurt that was the baby boom.

Tick follows tock follows tick follows tock.

Edited by Bring forth the guillotine

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Seems possible. Unless world agreement comes on shrinking the debts (unlikely) then it could well be a generation before the next boom. Everything we have grown used to over the last 10-15 years has been built on stealing from future earnings. Take away the unsustainable credit, and you don't have a lot left.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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