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What Happens When States Fail

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There's a thread below which seems to take the view that come TEOTWAWKI it will be down to individuals defending allotments using M16s.

States don't fail like that; it will be long, slow, and grinding and at no point will our elected leaders say anything other than it will soon be over and green shoots are sprouting just over the horizon.

Look out for:

o Inflation, tending towards hyperinflation. The govt will gingerly print a little money, realise it solves the problem for a while and print a little more. A decade later they will be issing £500 trillion notes with completely straight faces.

o Shortages and queuing; bare shelves in the stores; not empty shelves, just ever longer queues and more resourcefulness needed to source a square meal.

o Products being re-packaged in ever smaller sizes; pack of ten becomes pack of five at the same price; eventually you'll be able to buy half a cigarette.

o Private sector unemployment; public sector: don't earn enough to live on. Evening and weekend jobs become routine.

o Laws against food hoarding; against black marketing; possession of gold and foreign currency becomes illegal.

o Legal price controls which don't work and just put retail businesses out of business and exacerbate shortages.

o Rationing, entitlement cards for basics; underclass can't get the cards

o Censorship of printed media; laws against publishing the true facts; radio and internet jamming.

o Eventual nationalisation of just about everything.

o Increasingly harsh law enforcement; summary justice on the streets.

o Slight malnutrition becomes the norm; you start to see shoeless people on the streets.

o Rise of sex working for food.

o Police tasked to clear away bodies from the streets soon after dawn.

o Eventually police don't bother clearing bodies from the streets; flies; cholera; typhoid.

o Endemic corruption; rights no longer apply, everything requires bribery.

o Rise of feudal "warlord" statelets; authority derived from firepower

At some point durng this descend to hell the far-right will attempt to seize power, at first by the ballot box, and if that fails by force. Shadow para-military organisations already exist and will formlise themselves, eg, the second army group (notionally a historical re-enactment society) already has an officer corps, military vehicles and may have cached weapons. There are others, Combat 18, the BNP security directorate, etc.

Islamic fundamentalist may also attempt to seize power using an administrative network based on the several thousand mosques they now have in this country. They would provide law and order via their Sharia courts. Likely this would only be in muslim areas; the country would be fragmented.

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You missed out the return of On The Buses and Love Thy Neighbour.

Actually, thanks for the thoughts Mr N, they did make interesting reading, but my point was that we all got by in the 70s.

Edited by bobthe~

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If it ever gets that bad, northern ireland is toast.

The conditions during the boom years just weren't bad enough to give the IRA a popular platform.

Terms like "Northern Ireland" will be an anachronism if the state fragments. God knows what will happen in that geographic area, though.

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There's a thread below which seems to take the view that come TEOTWAWKI it will be down to individuals defending allotments using M16s.

States don't fail like that; it will be long, slow, and grinding and at no point will our elected leaders say anything other than it will soon be over and green shoots are sprouting just over the horizon.

Look out for:

Good posts

I have been looking out for give away signs

Maybe these could be added to the list

#New laws openly flouted where bendy bananas and pounds of carrots are openly sold to non payment of taxes.

#government imposing new laws due to new "risks" be it economical, political, terrorist, etc etc etc.

#government imposing these new laws for other purposes such as some terrorism law to seize people, goods or money or using new money laundering laws to prevent purchases etc

#preventing democratic process by changing terms such as if referendi are needed or if a general election should be postponed until future notice "in the national interest"

#Using "crisis" as a reason for taking away liberties of individuals, groups, companies, or other entities.

#Disregard for the pound in favour of other more stable currencies

I could go on and on.

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Interesting, and feasible but its the order is not quite right. Summary justice would come AFTER the sight of shoeless people and swapping sex for food. :rolleyes:

Oh, and they introduced the packets of 14 cigarettes last year because the price of them would be just under £5, that's marketing!

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#preventing democratic process by changing terms such as if referendi are needed or if a general election should be postponed until future notice "in the national interest"

#Using "crisis" as a reason for taking away liberties of individuals, groups, companies, or other entities.

A bit disappointed Bush didn't impose martial law are we?

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You missed one thats already happened Mr N. The government rigging the electoral process in an effort to prolong its life. With the constituancy boundaries as they are now after 11 years of labour the present government can win a House of Commons majority while 2% behind in the popular vote. The Conservatives need a lead over Labour of 7to10% to form a government. In the unlikely event that they win again expect more of the same.

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You missed one thats already happened Mr N. The government rigging the electoral process in an effort to prolong its life. With the constituancy boundaries as they are now after 11 years of labour the present government can win a House of Commons majority while 2% behind in the popular vote. The Conservatives need a lead over Labour of 7to10% to form a government. In the unlikely event that they win again expect more of the same.

Demographics can be more complicated than that. Tory support has always tended to be pockets with thumping big majorities in some counties. In London too, but Dame Shirley Porter tried to sort that one out!

In 1951, Labour won the popular vote but lost the election. And Cameron has mentioned re-drawing boundaries as well, reducing the no. of MPs to 625.

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Chilling post

o Censorship of printed media; laws against publishing the true facts; radio and internet jamming.

yesterday my freeview box retuned itself and found a new channel.

Channel 106, directgov

A government information channel.

see here:

http://www.entertainment-iuk.com/2009/01/2...rs-on-freeview/

How long till the freeview box only shows channel 106?

I've read 1984.

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Demographics can be more complicated than that. Tory support has always tended to be pockets with thumping big majorities in some counties. In London too, but Dame Shirley Porter tried to sort that one out!

In 1951, Labour won the popular vote but lost the election. And Cameron has mentioned re-drawing boundaries as well, reducing the no. of MPs to 625.

As you rightly say it can be more complex than that. Labour lost in 1951 while 0.7% ahead in the popular vote and won the first 1974 election while 1% behind. Demographics can produce these freakish results without anything sinister occurring. The situation now however is sinister. Never before has the system been so strongly biased in favour of one party. The Conservatives could be 5% ahead and not have a majority in Parliament . That I think is un-precedented. The more closely you look at the size and distribution of seats the more it becomes clear that this cannot be a accident.

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The Conservatives could be 5% ahead and not have a majority in Parliament . That I think is un-precedented. The more closely you look at the size and distribution of seats the more it becomes clear that this cannot be a accident.

It's to do with the increasing social polarisation in the country, especially between rural and urban areas. It's not a sinister labour plot. As much as anything, do you think they would be competent enough to organise such a complex arrangement?

Labour will lose the next election anyway, and by quite a large margin, which will hopefully allay your fears.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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