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Slow-reactor Sterling/yen Flapping Fool

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I know this should be in one of the other forums, but those don't seem to get much traffic.

I'm going a bit melt-down here in Osaka not knowing what to do with my sterling.

It's kind of hard to gauge the real situation from the other side of the world when you are not in the financial

industry.

I have about 11,000 in an ISA and 44,000 in a savings account both with Llloyds (I know this is over the 50,000

"guarantee" btw).

In the summer of 07 when I was despairing of the over-valued pound ever coming down I investigated ways of

sending the money to Japan but due to confusion over possible capital gains tax and the fact that I couldn't easily

do it online it didn't happen (huge huge huge regret!) and it soon started heading towards "normal" levels. "Good"

I thought, I can soon remit soon of my yen (about the same value in today's exchange rate terms) and get some

interest and increase my potential deposit now that the crash is underway.

I remitted some (dumb and dumber) but as soon as it started going lower than 185 I panicked and didn't send any more.

Anyhow, today it is at 124!

Here is my query: do I do what may seem insane and transfer the money to Japan at the lowest exchange rate

known to mankind to get it out while it still has some buying power (some Japanese press are predicting 100-105)

this year? It is not like it is earning any interest, but more importantly, if I did want to spend it outside of the UK in a

few years time it may be worth nothing, or, do I think "For example the Yen is really strong but that will screw the Japanese economy completely, hence long term the Yen must come down. So if I buy Yen I am buying into a currency that MUST devalue. It is ridiculously complex" (by Timak) as I just read on the Rogers thread?

I've been in Thailand for a month (poor old me, hey!) so haven't been in a position to act until now and want to make a

decision before the next lowering of the base rate.

I met an ex-trader there who sold his fund in spring 07 who said that hyperinflation would be the government's dream but he saw deflation and another trader who said "hyperinflation" and when pushed for a time-scale said "18 months time?"

If I was mainly considering the sterling for a deposit in 2011 or so, should I just leave it in the UK and just spread the amount in two?

Should I remit now and assume it could be 110-115 in a few months time and assume that if/when the UK becomes

stable again I can remit back at a similar amount to that I'll be sending it at?

Do I think what am I thinking of doing at a rate of 124 (or less by the time I decide!) is stupid and I left it too late?

I've been reading the newsblogs for a couple of years (more intensely in the last six months) but, unfortunately, I didn't

look at the forums as all the blogs come with comments. I would have seen the predicted death of sterling if I had.

I was worried about my sister buying in 04 and a friend in 06 and advised a colleague not to send yen to NZ last year

at a rate of 85 (he was going home) and Japanese friends to dump their dollar fund but can't seem to sort myself out!

I guess it's quite emotional for me as, although I've been here for 8 years, I don't know if I'm a "lifer" and losing the

chance to go back to the UK should I want to in the future is scary. Besides, my dad is living in one rented room in a shared house so I might be housing him as well as myself.

Japanese Uncle taskete kudasai!

Anyway, off to be bed now as it is 1:30 here.

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Anything can happen, we're on uncharted ground.

It's really just a toss of a coin job....but

I've got my shirt on the Yen after having lived there from 1989 til 2004, now living in the UK. Something new is happening here, the government is turning to quantitive easing (printing money) as there is no way it will be able to fund their spending, no way to sell bonds/gilts to the value of 150bn....200bn (?) The more money they print the weaker the Pound will get and there's even less chance of borrowing. Of course, Japan may also 'print money' but they managed to resist the temptation (mostly) after their bubble burst. Anyway, this is just my thinking, what I'm doing, I may be completely wrong. As you may know, the Yen spiked up to 131 , then returned to 200 in 1995. This kind of thing may happen again but I feel that the situation with the Pound now is much more profound. The next 3 months or 3 years will make or break many I believe.

The sensible and conservative thing to do is to change half your money now and half later. That way you will even out any future gains or losses.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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