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loubelou

Help! Hpc Are Planning Something Big...

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Hi HPC-ers,

I'm Louise - I work for Fubra, who own HousePriceCrash.co.uk.

I'm posting because I need some help getting reliable figures on the banking bailout(s). Im trying to find a top level figure on how much the UK Government is *potentially* exposing taxpayers to. Not national debt, but the total figure that the government has pledged to commit to saving UK banks in the future - including:

Capital eg share purchases

Short term loans

Underwriting business loans

Acquring potentially toxic assets

Quantitative easing

We're planning something big... I'm afraid I can't say what yet, but it's really exciting.

Can anyone provide links to good articles, PDFs or primary source material that might help?

In exchange for your help, I promise that when the new site is up we'll post it to HPC first :)

Louise

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Hi HPC-ers,

I'm Louise - I work for Fubra, who own HousePriceCrash.co.uk.

I'm posting because I need some help getting reliable figures on the banking bailout(s). Im trying to find a top level figure on how much the UK Government is *potentially* exposing taxpayers to. Not national debt, but the total figure that the government has pledged to commit to saving UK banks in the future - including:

Capital eg share purchases

Short term loans

Underwriting business loans

Acquring potentially toxic assets

Quantitative easing

We're planning something big... I'm afraid I can't say what yet, but it's really exciting.

Can anyone provide links to good articles, PDFs or primary source material that might help?

In exchange for your help, I promise that when the new site is up we'll post it to HPC first :)

Louise

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Guest sillybear2

Total bank exposure is now £1t, including capital injections, loan guarantees, SLS, etc. Excluding RBS, HBOS/Lloyds, Barclays, which will all eventually fall into the lap of government, total exposure would be 500% of GDP. Source? Telegraph, Alphaville.

As for QE, it can be whatever they want it to be, until they run out of paper... or computer digits.

Edited by sillybear2

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Me again.

Just to clarify - I'm not looking for the total loss, because obviously there's no way to know yet.

I'm looking for figures to suggest how much the UK has already commited to spending to save the banks.

Facts, not opinions please!

Thanks

Louise

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but the total figure that the government has pledged to commit to saving UK banks in the future - including:

I understand that it is unlimited funds, QE means unlimited money will be created if needed...Injin is right the government has pledged Unlimited £s...

Edited by moosetea

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Guest sillybear2
HPC is owned by someone? I always thought we were a mutual!

Nope, they bought us all out using Injin dollars a while back.

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I already have:

10bn (Sep 19 Northern Rock)

50bn (Apr 21 - rescue package to allow banks to swap mortgate debt got gov bonds)

50bn (Sept 29 Bradford and Bingly)

700bn (Oct 8 - rescue package and lending support)

37bn (Oct 13 - RBS, HBOS Lloyds TSB)

200bn (Jan 19 - new bailout)

Which makes 1047bn, or rather, more than a trillion (?!)

However, this is a minefield because some of this is an unlimited guarantee, some is capital, some is in exchange for assets, some is earmarked but not taken up etc etc

Anything I've missed/is inaccurate?

Louise

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http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/statement_chx_190109.htm

includes the most recent additions, from the horses mouth and the open-ended commitment

Countries all over the world are united in supporting their economies, maintaining lending and protecting jobs.

We are ready to do whatever it takes.

And I commend this statement to the House.

Details of all the official commitments should be in statements on the same site.

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Guest sillybear2

You also need to include the cost of servicing all that debt, especially when/if our credit rating is cut, our government CDS is trading parallel to RBS and when gilt rates go sky high, as nobody wants to convert into sterling and buy bonds when the BoE is printing funny money at will.

Edited by sillybear2

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As for QE, it can be whatever they want it to be, until they run out of paper... or computer digits.

"The world won't end with a bang, but with a value out of range exception."

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Guest vicmac64

You might want to email or correspond with some of those that post regularly to www.marketoracle.net - I find this a fantastic store of information.

Wish you well with your project.

vicmac64

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Hi HPC-ers,

I'm Louise - I work for Fubra, who own HousePriceCrash.co.uk.

I'm posting because I need some help getting reliable figures on the banking bailout(s).

You are Alistair Darling and I claim my five units.

Sorry for the flippant humour - have nothing else to contribute. Best of luck, Louise!

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Ooooh - a voive from Fubra on here is a bit like the voice of God!! - You forget sometimes that there is a whole team keeping everything working.

When is the "BIG THING" happenning?

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From Willem Buiter a former MPC member.

A measure of the exposure.

Net likely loss - ask the banks they should have the answer. :ph34r:

http://blogs.ft.com/maverecon/2009/01/can-...gn-debt-crisis/

Lloyds-TSB Group (now part of the Lloyds Banking Group) reported a balance sheet as of June 30, 2008 of £ 368bn and shareholders equity of £11bn, giving a leverage ratio of just over 33. Of course, for all these banks, the risk-adjusted assets to capital ratios are much lower, but because the risk-weightings depend both on private information of the banks (including internal models) and on the rating agencies, they are, in my view, worth nothing - they are the answer from the banks to the question “how much capital do you want to hold?”. That the answer is “not very much, really”, should not come as a surprise. For the same date, HBOS, the other half of the new Lloyds Banking Group, reported assets of £681bn and equity of £21bn, giving a leverage ratio of just over 32; Barclays reported total assets of £1,366bn and shareholders equity of £33bn giving a leverage ratio of 41, and HSBC (including subsidiaries) reported assets of £2,547 bn and equity of £134 bn for a leverage ratio of 19.

The total balance sheets of these banks about to around 440 per cent of annual UK GDP. The government seems to be well on its way towards guaranteeing most if not all of it. No one outside the banks (and perhaps even no-one inside them) has a good sense of the true value of what they hold on and off their books.

Edited by OnlyMe

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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