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AvidFan

The Real Reason Jim Rogers Damned Sterling And The Uk

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Jim Rogers left the US in 2007 and relocated his family to Singapore, where he runs his wealth management service.

Jim Rogers bets on Singapore

http://www.home-in-singapore.sg/sgp/cms.ww...nt.aspx?sid=459

His children speak Mandarin and he has bet everything on the Asian success story.

Now Asia is collapsing. And with its integrated economy, Singapore is collapsing harder and faster than anyone believed possible:

Singapore economy may shrink as much as 5% in 2009, gov't says

http://www.tmcnet.com/usubmit/2009/01/20/3927540.htm

Singapore faces devastating exodus of foreigners

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/c...icle5557447.ece

Jim Rogers main arguments seem to be centred on the fact the UK's natural resources are dwindling and yet:

1. We're just about energy independent in this country, while the US imports 70% of its oil and Singapore 100%.

2. We choose to pay European prices for our gas, share our oil with Europe and have one of the heaviest refined product taxes in the world.

3. Because of the above, the UK HASN'T positioned itself to be an oil-revenue dependent economy like the middle east. TOTAL UK revenue from the natural resources business is around 1% of GDP, that's ALL:

http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/stats/corporate_tax/table11_11.pdf

4. The UK is one of the most energy-efficient economies in the world:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domesti...duct_per_barrel

we're in 3rd place behind Switzerland and Denmark, two tiny economies - and we're almost 20% more efficient than Germany.

Like everyone else on this forum, I like a good disaster story. I was the first person to post the Nouriel Roubini "it's systemic" Bloomberg video just before the total collapse last year. Jim Rogers may be the co-founder of the Quantum fund with Soros, the man who broke the Bank of England with a $10 billion short on the pound, but is that some reason to afford him airtime?

It's YOUR str fund he's talking down. YOUR hard-earned sterling.

What's the betting that he's short sterling versus the Singapore dollar and it's all going a bit Pete Tong for him?

Look at the articles about Singapore's economy above - 30%+ housing price bust, mass exodus of workers, collapse in consumption - do you really believe a man that can bet the future of his family on such an apparent disaster?

Edited by AvidFan

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you cant TALK a fundamental problem into existence. they ARE problems. real problems. you have to DEAL with them.

we borrow too much, have little power reserves or ability and have no output other than failed financial schemes.

were a spent force. a miserable tiny island with hardly any resources and bankrupted by international debt.

yeah well done. spotting that simple words are doing us in and not a chronic mismanagement of the country.

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were a spent force. a miserable tiny island with hardly any resources and bankrupted by international debt.

But at least we have Cricket and won the Ashes in 2005!!!

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you cant TALK a fundamental problem into existence. they ARE problems. real problems. you have to DEAL with them.

we borrow too much, have little power reserves or ability and have no output other than failed financial schemes.

were a spent force. a miserable tiny island with hardly any resources and bankrupted by international debt.

yeah well done. spotting that simple words are doing us in and not a chronic mismanagement of the country.

:unsure::unsure::huh::o so what then were er F**K*D... :(

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you cant TALK a fundamental problem into existence. they ARE problems. real problems. you have to DEAL with them.

we borrow too much, have little power reserves or ability and have no output other than failed financial schemes.

were a spent force. a miserable tiny island with hardly any resources and bankrupted by international debt.

yeah well done. spotting that simple words are doing us in and not a chronic mismanagement of the country.

Trading Pound versus Dollar or Pound versus Euro is just irrational garbage. There's NO fundamental analysis to any of this. The debts of countries that make up Europe are far higher than the UK, and they will be much higher still by the time their stimulus packages are spent. I'll agree that the US is a BASKET CASE and nothing short of dollar devaluation will save them.

I'm sure people looking to make a buck or two for their "clients" can talk down sentiment - especially someone like Rogers. But where are the facts? Where are YOUR facts?

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So is everyone on this forum now anti-UK? House price collapse is one thing, we all want to see that, well, most of us, but if you destroy the value of your own STR fund by battering down the UK, is that not counter-productive?

Despising the banks is one thing, but hatred of the UK doesn't work for anyone here who's aim is to buy a house at it's lowest price or move to another country. Unless you've all moved savings into other currencies. Talking down the UK just means more years of recession, more currency weakness, more humiliation, lower interest rates, lower returns on your STR fund... I could go on, but...

Really, this totally anti-UK sentiment is a new paradigm for this site. I thought it was just about an unjust housing market.

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Very interesting post thank you AvidFan.

Rogers main "bet" as far as I can tell is a multi-decade one. He laughs off short/medium term falls (like the current commodities collapse) as "I am hopeless at timing these things". He certainly is!

Like most of these guys, his main aim is self-promotion.

Edit: I think the "Anti-UK" sentiment comes mostly from the gold brigade. Many of whom (from what I can tell) are actually paid by UK govt. agencies which I always find amusing. This is epitomised by the pro-Euro bunch, who not suprisingly disappear whenever the Euro is getting trashed. :rolleyes:

Edited by Red Kharma

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I have absolutely no doubt that he has a massive vested interest in talking down Sterling.

However I look worldwide and I can't really see any economy doing well so appraising the long term prospects of any currency is going to prove difficult.

For example the Yen is really strong but that will screw the Japanese economy completely, hence long term the Yen must come down. So if I buy Yen I am buying into a currency that MUST devalue. It is ridiculously complex.

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Very interesting post thank you AvidFan.

Rogers main "bet" as far as I can tell is a multi-decade one. He laughs off short/medium term falls (like the current commodities collapse) as "I am hopeless at timing these things". He certainly is!

Like most of these guys, his main aim is self-promotion.

At last, some support. Self promotion is exactly what I see, too. And I guess if you're a media commentator, you don't HAVE to make full disclosure of your interests...

Edited by AvidFan

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So is everyone on this forum now anti-UK? House price collapse is one thing, we all want to see that, well, most of us, but if you destroy the value of your own STR fund by battering down the UK, is that not counter-productive?

Despising the banks is one thing, but hatred of the UK doesn't work for anyone here who's aim is to buy a house at it's lowest price or move to another country. Unless you've all moved savings into other currencies. Talking down the UK just means more years of recession, more currency weakness, more humiliation, lower interest rates, lower returns on your STR fund... I could go on, but...

Really, this totally anti-UK sentiment is a new paradigm for this site. I thought it was just about an unjust housing market.

+1

Yes and it is really, really tiresome as most of it is just shouting/shoes shine shíte with no analysis to back it up. <_<

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4. The UK is one of the most energy-efficient economies in the world:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_domesti...duct_per_barrel

we're in 3rd place behind Switzerland and Denmark, two tiny economies - and we're almost 20% more efficient than Germany.

Oh joy! Though I fear you exaggerate our energy efficiency prowess a little, as it's only fifth place we're in. Still, if we can just work a little harder at generating our GDP figure from work that doesn't actually produce anything, I think we could just about overtake Denmark and Switzerland.... and Cambodia. Can't see us ever knocking the powerhouse that is Chad off the number one spot though. Still though, something to aim for, eh.

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So is everyone on this forum now anti-UK? House price collapse is one thing, we all want to see that, well, most of us, but if you destroy the value of your own STR fund by battering down the UK, is that not counter-productive?

Despising the banks is one thing, but hatred of the UK doesn't work for anyone here who's aim is to buy a house at it's lowest price or move to another country. Unless you've all moved savings into other currencies. Talking down the UK just means more years of recession, more currency weakness, more humiliation, lower interest rates, lower returns on your STR fund... I could go on, but...

Really, this totally anti-UK sentiment is a new paradigm for this site. I thought it was just about an unjust housing market.

I agree with a lot of what you're saying AF.

But are you suggesting then that any committed future house buyer would be better off keeping their STR fund in sterling while UK house prices continue to fall in sterling terms? It seems a risky strategy - although it's one I'm currently pursuing while opening up Euro/Dollar accounts to flee to as a last resort and educating myself in how to buy physical gold.

Edit to add: The apocalyptic tone of this forum is increasing exponentially at the moment.People are either doing it because they're convinced they've stashed away enough gold (or whatever) to see them through or because they hate the corrupt capitalist system and all it stands for. There is a certain perverse pleasure to be had in watching the current car crash unfold - hence whiff of appalled excitement that accompanies every new post charting sterling's slide.

I sympathise with the doommongering, nihilistic outlook - even share in it on some level - although the rational part of my brain knows it would be truly horrendous if any of what we fear could happen actually came to pass.

Edited by Mugwump Boy

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Oh joy! Though I fear you exaggerate our energy efficiency prowess a little, as it's only fifth place we're in. Still, if we can just work a little harder at generating our GDP figure from work that doesn't actually produce anything, I think we could just about overtake Denmark and Switzerland.... and Cambodia. Can't see us ever knocking the powerhouse that is Chad off the number one spot though. Still though, something to aim for, eh.

I almost didn't answer that one. 3rd place behind Switzerland and Denamrk, from the TOP 30 largest economies...

5th place if you include Cambodia and Chad.

Thanks for that. Really useful, meaningful correction.

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At last, some support. Self promotion is exactly what I see, too. And I guess if you're a media commentator, you don't HAVE to make full disclosure of your interests...

Perhaps you didn't see Carseller's youtube link (I re-posted it on the Rogers thread yesterday - it's in the gold thread too) where Rogers was pumping Iceland in '99. I'm guessing he got out after everyone else got in and before it all went t1ts up. I'm coming around to the belief that the UK has in fact been "set up" from the moment Blair/Brown were elected. They welcomed and encouraged it of course, and are to blame for allowing it to get out of hand, but I've no doubt they were suckered.

Edit: Just to add, one of the most prescient "calls" I have seen on this site was the much derided Dr Bubb's call of a top in sterling/USD at 2.11 There's never any shortage of claims to where sterling or the Euro are going on here, but that one was about as good as it gets. Makes me smile when people are now talking of shorting sterling at 1.38.

Edited by Red Kharma

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I agree with a lot of what you're saying AF.

But are you suggesting then that any committed future house buyer would be better off keeping their STR fund in sterling while UK house prices continue to fall in sterling terms? It seems a risky strategy - although it's one I'm currently pursuing while opening up Euro/Dollar accounts to flee to as a last resort and educating myself in how to buy physical gold.

Of course in hindsight, it appears bailing Sterling would have been the thing to do, if you were looking for a quick end to overpriced housing. I expect RB is laughing all the way to the Travelex FX desk.

Personally, I'd have accepted a slow grind down to 1995 prices (inflation adjusted) and a decent 5% net return on my cash during the process. It removes currency speculation risk. I wasn't looking for a total collapse in sterling and sterling returns to be perfectly honest, and I can't see that getting behind idiotic prognosticators is going to make that situation any better.

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you cant TALK a fundamental problem into existence. they ARE problems. real problems. you have to DEAL with them.

we borrow too much, have little power reserves or ability and have no output other than failed financial schemes.

were a spent force. a miserable tiny island with hardly any resources and bankrupted by international debt.

yeah well done. spotting that simple words are doing us in and not a chronic mismanagement of the country.

We are one the biggest economies in the world, even in exporting. Virtually self sufficient in energy and food.

Thje UK is nothing like as bad as it was in 1945, or the 1970's.

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OP - totally agree. But you missed one...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a4wYWj3V_SFU

China’s central government has agreed to support Shanghai’s efforts to become an international shipping center, Mayor Han Zheng said at a Jan. 17 briefing. That backing may lead to greater investment in the city’s port facilities, said Northeast Securities Co. analyst Xu Xiang.

Singapore is beyond screwed - in the immediate sense the collapse in shipping and financial brokerage must be causing a world of hurt, and in the long term they're going to get their plums squeezed by Mr Han (and his extended family).

I'd guess that "who shot" JR's play is roughly :-

1/ long sterling

2/ short gold

Unfortunately, as one Mr Barnham once pointed out...

(I probably don't need to finish that sentence)

Edited by ParticleMan

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We are one the biggest economies in the world, even in exporting. Virtually self sufficient in energy and food.

Thje UK is nothing like as bad as it was in 1945, or the 1970's.

Correct. When you run the numbers, on everything from farming intensity, energy efficiency, GDP, GDP by PPP, GBP per unit of energy, the fact we have a good public transport / light rail / mass transit system, free health service, low government debt / GDP ratio, etc, etc, etc - a LOT of other countries look a LOT worse than the UK.

If you actually dig into the statistics of other countries, you find some real horror stories. No doubt, they make local news but we never get to hear about them in the UK.

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OP - totally agree. But you missed one...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=new...id=a4wYWj3V_SFU

Singapore is beyond screwed - in the immediate sense the collapse in shipping and financial brokerage must be causing a world of hurt, and in the long term they're going to get their plums squeezed by Mr Han (and his extended family).

I'd guess that "who shot" JR's play is roughly :-

1/ long sterling

2/ short gold

Unfortunately, as one Mr Barnham once pointed out...

(I probably don't need to finish that sentence)

How about long crude/short gold?

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We are one the biggest economies in the world, even in exporting. Virtually self sufficient in energy and food.

Thje UK is nothing like as bad as it was in 1945, or the 1970's.

Virtually self sufficient in energy and food.

I don't think so

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So is everyone on this forum now anti-UK? House price collapse is one thing, we all want to see that, well, most of us, but if you destroy the value of your own STR fund by battering down the UK, is that not counter-productive?

Despising the banks is one thing, but hatred of the UK doesn't work for anyone here who's aim is to buy a house at it's lowest price or move to another country. Unless you've all moved savings into other currencies. Talking down the UK just means more years of recession, more currency weakness, more humiliation, lower interest rates, lower returns on your STR fund... I could go on, but...

Really, this totally anti-UK sentiment is a new paradigm for this site. I thought it was just about an unjust housing market.

Typical HPC attitude. Things not going your way so blame someone else.

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I don't think so

Self sufficient in energy - just.

Only 66% self sufficient in food. But we'd get by without what we import, although we'd be back to lardy chips and heart diseased 40 year olds.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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