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Guest vicmac64

Dow Tanks Ftse Going Down Way On Down

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Guest vicmac64

To all the greedy and trusting ones - you have all been conned by financial snake oil salesmen that took your money and invested it in ponzi schemes, pyramid scams and things that only survive in a Government inspired debt based bubble.

I haven't changed my view - the system is utterly corrupt and it is going down and it will go down.

Treasonable men with vested interests other than the well being and independence of the United Kingdom have done for our nation.

I still expect the ftse 100 to go below 1000.

Today I see red figures once again and large falls, as they say the markets follow main street eventually - I think you are seeing the collapse of the biggest confidence trick of all time. Our so called economy!

GIVE US YOUR MONEY AND WE WILL LOOK AFTER IT FOR YOU...........

Yeah - right on mate...... dream on snake oil salesmen... the party is over

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To all the greedy and trusting ones - you have all been conned by financial snake oil salesmen that took your money and invested it in ponzi schemes, pyramid scams and things that only survive in a Government inspired debt based bubble.

I haven't changed my view - the system is utterly corrupt and it is going down and it will go down.

Treasonable men with vested interests other than the well being and independence of the United Kingdom have done for our nation.

I still expect the ftse 100 to go below 1000.

Today I see red figures once again and large falls, as they say the markets follow main street eventually - I think you are seeing the collapse of the biggest confidence trick of all time. Our so called economy!

GIVE US YOUR MONEY AND WE WILL LOOK AFTER IT FOR YOU...........

Yeah - right on mate...... dream on snake oil salesmen... the party is over

But the ex resident expert told me that the FTSE was going to soar. Who do I believe? Tiddles is going hungry while I spend my pension on playing the markets (and crystal meth).

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I'll buy around 3600. At some point, it will be better to own a piece of large companies rather then cash getting next to no interest on it.

VMR.

I will be selling my all my assets to invest at 3600. I am already drip feeding in my savings.

The only reason I'm wrong is because we are about to go in total meltdown and a total collapse of the economy. If that happens and we have to go back to hunting and bartering then my assets and savings are worthless anyway.

If we have a depression most of that is already priced in, so I'm getting paid for that. If there is not a depression I'm getting overpaid. If its a meer recession and we see a recovery in 2/3 years then I will do very well indeed.

Even in 1929 and the depression that followed 75% of all businesses did not default on their debt. And 80% of people had a job.

I still expect the ftse 100 to go below 1000.

At which point I will start selling organs to invest.

Edited by KingBingo

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I will be selling my all my assets to invest at 3600. I am already drip feeding in my savings.

The only reason I'm wrong is because we are about to go in total meltdown and a total collapse of the economy. If that happens and we have to go back to hunting and bartering then my assets and savings are worthless anyway.

just buy gold if thats your fear.

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To all the greedy and trusting ones - you have all been conned by financial snake oil salesmen that took your money and invested it in ponzi schemes, pyramid scams and things that only survive in a Government inspired debt based bubble.

I haven't changed my view - the system is utterly corrupt and it is going down and it will go down.

Treasonable men with vested interests other than the well being and independence of the United Kingdom have done for our nation.

I still expect the ftse 100 to go below 1000.

Today I see red figures once again and large falls, as they say the markets follow main street eventually - I think you are seeing the collapse of the biggest confidence trick of all time. Our so called economy!

GIVE US YOUR MONEY AND WE WILL LOOK AFTER IT FOR YOU...........

Yeah - right on mate...... dream on snake oil salesmen... the party is over

Ok FTSE 100 at 1000pts?.

The financials are now down to almost zero in the FTSE.The big caps who make up the vast share of the index lets look at them.

Pharma GSK,Astrazeneca,profits gain from sterling slide by a huge amount.

Tobacco again gain from sterling.

Oil\gas,sell in $.

Telecoms ,VOD more like a utility.

For FTSE at 1000 youd need to see GSK at £3 a share,BP £1.25 a share,VOD 35p a share,BAT £4 a share BG £2 a share.

Id expect the big ten to raise profits this year,sterling slide makes it certain almost,and raise the divi.

So for the FTSE at 1000 the top ten would be on a P\E of 2.3 and a yield of 20%.GSK could buy the tope 5 with 8 years free cash flow.

Buy Zeneca with 8 months profits.BAT could buy Tesco with 1 years free cashflow.

The FTSE is in the buying zone IMO.For the long term of course.

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Ok FTSE 100 at 1000pts?.

The financials are now down to almost zero in the FTSE.The big caps who make up the vast share of the index lets look at them.

Pharma GSK,Astrazeneca,profits gain from sterling slide by a huge amount.

Tobacco again gain from sterling.

Oil\gas,sell in $.

Telecoms ,VOD more like a utility.

For FTSE at 1000 youd need to see GSK at £3 a share,BP £1.25 a share,VOD 35p a share,BAT £4 a share BG £2 a share.

Id expect the big ten to raise profits this year,sterling slide makes it certain almost,and raise the divi.

So for the FTSE at 1000 the top ten would be on a P\E of 2.3 and a yield of 20%.GSK could buy the tope 5 with 8 years free cash flow.

Buy Zeneca with 8 months profits.BAT could buy Tesco with 1 years free cashflow.

The FTSE is in the buying zone IMO.For the long term of course.

I'm going to be betting on you, VMR and KingBingo being right.....

However, this does not mean I will not be needing rubber pants for the journey, or that I have not already suffered considerable losses over the last 10 years about which I am less than happy....

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I will be selling my all my assets to invest at 3600. I am already drip feeding in my savings.

The only reason I'm wrong is because we are about to go in total meltdown and a total collapse of the economy. If that happens and we have to go back to hunting and bartering then my assets and savings are worthless anyway.

If we have a depression most of that is already priced in, so I'm getting paid for that. If there is not a depression I'm getting overpaid. If its a meer recession and we see a recovery in 2/3 years then I will do very well indeed.

Even in 1929 and the depression that followed 75% of all businesses did not default on their debt. And 80% of people had a job.

At which point I will start selling organs to invest.

Same as.

Sold out 3 years ago.Started drip feeding into FTSE and Asia Pacific ex Japan last September and will be fully invested by October this year,then il carry on monthly from earnings.

Im only interested in the return 23 years from today hopefully retirement.

If its lost,or worthless so is everything else as you say.My house is paid for some cash in Yen.$s and Euros.The rest is going in whatever.

If i still had a mortgage id be paying £500 a month in interest so to me the £600 a month from earnings im putting in trackers would need to go to zero to be worth the same as those who bought overvalued houses.

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Guest vicmac64
But the ex resident expert told me that the FTSE was going to soar. Who do I believe? Tiddles is going hungry while I spend my pension on playing the markets (and crystal meth).

Noel - I'm sorry to hear that - i take one look at most of those in the city and financial world and ask myself would I trust them and the answer is an implicit no. But then I could be a little paranoid when it comes to trusting people today full stop. Its a different country I live in now from the one in which I grew up in.

The ex resident I must admit is one who I would trust as doing his best for people (maybe he got it wrong) but there is something honest about him that I like.

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I'm going to be betting on you, VMR and KingBingo being right.....

However, this does not mean I will not be needing rubber pants for the journey, or that I have not already suffered considerable losses over the last 10 years about which I am less than happy....

Without doubt nerves will be tested.The thing is though ten years ago the FTSE was way overvalued.In 2000 Glaxo was on a P\E of 33 :lol: .The markets were way over-valued after the 2001 falls still.

Now its very different.The question is simple.Do you think the big caps will be paying the same divis in 15 years or higher than now.If you do then the FTSE cheap.

Drip drip i think is the way to go i think,and no leverage at all.

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Noel - I'm sorry to hear that - i take one look at most of those in the city and financial world and ask myself would I trust them and the answer is an implicit no. But then I could be a little paranoid when it comes to trusting people today full stop. Its a different country I live in now from the one in which I grew up in.

The ex resident I must admit is one who I would trust as doing his best for people (maybe he got it wrong) but there is something honest about him that I like.

yes avoid all advice on where to put it.Drip into a tracker and leave it there.That way your not counting on the city,your couting on the likes of GSK increasing earnings over the long term.

Noel i dont think playing the stock market is a good idea once retired.The idea is to use the stock market to retire then move the capital into cash\bonds\gilts etc.

If i was still wanting some stocks once retired i think id be buying big caps,say half a dozen with good divi yields and rock solid balance sheets and simply enjoy the dividend income.Depends on your other finances of course.Pension income,cash savings,debts etc.

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Noel - I'm sorry to hear that - i take one look at most of those in the city and financial world and ask myself would I trust them and the answer is an implicit no.

Have you met any of them?

Most of the people in the city I know have been going around for years saying that houses were absurdly overvalued. Most of them predicted a bank crash last September. Admittedly these are people on the buy side. But still, it might be worth talking to one or two before you slam them all. Most fund managers talk a lot of sense.

Just to explain Buy side refers to fund manager and investment managers, Sell side is brokers and financial PR types.

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If i was still wanting some stocks once retired i think id be buying big caps,say half a dozen with good divi yields and rock solid balance sheets and simply enjoy the dividend income.

Wise words.

But if you have high net assets and you like your kids you can find some great little companies on AIM that are solid, good divs and free cash gen, plus you get very good tax breaks and death tax exemptions. Might be worth including a element of these.

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yes avoid all advice on where to put it.Drip into a tracker and leave it there.That way your not counting on the city,your couting on the likes of GSK increasing earnings over the long term.

Noel i dont think playing the stock market is a good idea once retired.The idea is to use the stock market to retire then move the capital into cash\bonds\gilts etc.

If i was still wanting some stocks once retired i think id be buying big caps,say half a dozen with good divi yields and rock solid balance sheets and simply enjoy the dividend income.Depends on your other finances of course.Pension income,cash savings,debts etc.

Like Lloyds bank for instance? Why does "retirement" exempt you from protecting your capital? :unsure:

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I will be selling my all my assets to invest at 3600. I am already drip feeding in my savings.

The only reason I'm wrong is because we are about to go in total meltdown and a total collapse of the economy. If that happens and we have to go back to hunting and bartering then my assets and savings are worthless anyway.

If we have a depression most of that is already priced in, so I'm getting paid for that. If there is not a depression I'm getting overpaid. If its a meer recession and we see a recovery in 2/3 years then I will do very well indeed.

Even in 1929 and the depression that followed 75% of all businesses did not default on their debt. And 80% of people had a job.

At which point I will start selling organs to invest.

See my thread in the off topic section the NHS is already selling 'free' donated organs to foreigners and making a 75K profit on it.

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Like Lloyds bank for instance? Why does "retirement" exempt you from protecting your capital? :unsure:

I said with rock solid balance sheets i think that would exclude Lloyds :lol: .As for protecting your capital thats the balancing act isnt it once retired.Is GSK a better protection to capital over sterling cash accounts.?.Thats the crux.

As you say protecting capital is crucial once retired and the biggest destroyer of capital is inflation over the long term.

Oh for the days of rock solid final salary pensions and a few grand in the building society eh.

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I will be selling my all my assets to invest at 3600. I am already drip feeding in my savings.

The only reason I'm wrong is because we are about to go in total meltdown and a total collapse of the economy. If that happens and we have to go back to hunting and bartering then my assets and savings are worthless anyway.

One of the reasons some people lost so much in the stock market crash in the early 1930s.

They never believed it would hit the bottom and thought it would eventually start to pick up and rally back up.

Edited by Ted

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One of the reasons some people lost so much in the stock market crash in the early 1930s.

They never believed it would hit the bottom and thought it would eventually start to pick up and rally back up.

It did rally back up by 10,000% ,just leverage killed most investors first on the 2nd downleg.Good point though hence why i like drip feeding myself because i have no idea where the bottom is,when or even if.

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Ok FTSE 100 at 1000pts?.

The financials are now down to almost zero in the FTSE.The big caps who make up the vast share of the index lets look at them.

Pharma GSK,Astrazeneca,profits gain from sterling slide by a huge amount.

Tobacco again gain from sterling.

Oil\gas,sell in $.

Telecoms ,VOD more like a utility.

For FTSE at 1000 youd need to see GSK at £3 a share,BP £1.25 a share,VOD 35p a share,BAT £4 a share BG £2 a share.

Id expect the big ten to raise profits this year,sterling slide makes it certain almost,and raise the divi.

So for the FTSE at 1000 the top ten would be on a P\E of 2.3 and a yield of 20%.GSK could buy the tope 5 with 8 years free cash flow.

Buy Zeneca with 8 months profits.BAT could buy Tesco with 1 years free cashflow.

The FTSE is in the buying zone IMO.For the long term of course.

This makes much more sense than the OP.

However do you think the potential for a default on government debt has been priced in to the FTSE? Do you think this possibility exisits?

If I was investing long term in the FTSE today the biggest threat is a collapse of treasury debt or even a government default, IMO. Its not about to happen tomorrow or anything, but it looks like the main event to all this will take place on the bond markets. I mean another few hundred billion in failed bailouts and johnny foreigner doesn't want any more we're probably going to be there.

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However do you think the potential for a default on government debt has been priced in to the FTSE? Do you think this possibility exisits?

That's not priced in no. But Britain has never in its long history defaulted on its debt. Like I mentioned earlier, even during the great depression 75% of companies never defaulted either.

One of the reasons some people lost so much in the stock market crash in the early 1930s.

They never believed it would hit the bottom and thought it would eventually start to pick up and rally back up.

I believe it won't happen either. I'm still going to invest, but with some caution. I will be investing in corporate bonds and companies with low debt and good cash flow. I will also fed the money in over the next 6 months. I actually want the market to go lower so I can average down.

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That's not priced in no. But Britain has never in its long history defaulted on its debt. Like I mentioned earlier, even during the great depression 75% of companies never defaulted either.

I believe it won't happen either. I'm still going to invest, but with some caution. I will be investing in corporate bonds and companies with low debt and good cash flow. I will also fed the money in over the next 6 months. I actually want the market to go lower so I can average down.

Ambrose reckoned it defaulted in the Middle Ages

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans...20&com_pg=2

Market reckons UK has ~10% chance of defaulting over next five years.

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To all the greedy and trusting ones - you have all been conned by financial snake oil salesmen that took your money and invested it in ponzi schemes, pyramid scams and things that only survive in a Government inspired debt based bubble.

I haven't changed my view - the system is utterly corrupt and it is going down and it will go down.

Treasonable men with vested interests other than the well being and independence of the United Kingdom have done for our nation.

I still expect the ftse 100 to go below 1000.

Today I see red figures once again and large falls, as they say the markets follow main street eventually - I think you are seeing the collapse of the biggest confidence trick of all time. Our so called economy!

GIVE US YOUR MONEY AND WE WILL LOOK AFTER IT FOR YOU...........

Yeah - right on mate...... dream on snake oil salesmen... the party is over

the party is only just about to start, we had the tea party before now it's the real party !!! :lol:

blood every where in the city .... :lol: i think it will go below 2,500 but below 1,000.. :huh::o:unsure::unsure: NO.. :unsure::lol:

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I'll buy around 3600. At some point, it will be better to own a piece of large companies rather then cash getting next to no interest on it.

VMR.

This brilliant logic has left a friend looking at between 25% and 50% loses on his 'investment'

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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