Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 (edited) Claimant count: 3.6% (expected 3.5%) Unemployment rate: 6.1% Jobless Claims change: 77.9k (81k) Avg earnings inc bonus 3.1% (3.3%) Avg earnings ex bonus (3.6%) M4 Money supply MOM 1.7% (0.9%) M4 YOY 16.6% (16%) Public sector net borrowing 14.9B (10.5B) PSNCR 44.2B (18B) Edited January 21, 2009 by Noel Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Cheers Noel (as always) That Public Sector Net Cash requirement looks a bit bigger than expected. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 Cheers Noel (as always)That Public Sector Net Cash requirement looks a bit bigger than expected. TBH I'm not that clued up on the PSNCR number, but the previous high was 17.33 back in 2007, so this is significant Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieChuck Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 TBH I'm not that clued up on the PSNCR number, but the previous high was 17.33 back in 2007, so this is significant If I remember correctly reduced taxation receipts can bring big hikes in this (i.e. they were expecting 100bn to be paid, but only 80bn was paid). Schemes were announced in November allowing struggling companies extra help to delay payments (VAT, PAYE and Corp tax), I'd guess part of this is the result of that. This could be one a month anomaly (i.e. if everyone decides to pay one month later, the first month will show a big shortfall then future months would go back to to existing level) but with rising unemployment it would have risen anyway (more benefits to pay less tax receitps to pay them with). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billy Ray Valentine Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7841349.stm Up 131'000 from the previous figures. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7841349.stmUp 131'000 from the previous figures. From the article: "That does not include the tens of thousands of jobs cut since November." Oh dear. So all that bad news in Nov / Dec 2008 is still to come. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bagsos Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 From the article:"That does not include the tens of thousands of jobs cut since November." Oh dear. So all that bad news in Nov / Dec 2008 is still to come. I think you mean Dec 08/Jan 09. What it also doesn't include is all the temporary Christmas hires who are now flooding back into the stats. There are 10's of thousands at the supermarkets alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 I think you mean Dec 08/Jan 09. What it also doesn't include is all the temporary Christmas hires who are now flooding back into the stats. There are 10's of thousands at the supermarkets alone. So if this is November, then by year end, we will pretty much be guaranteed to hit that 2 million mark. Also, isn't there a delay before you can be included in the claimant count? That might mean that these figures are not as high as they perhaps ought to be. On PSNCR, I am not familiar with it, other than a rough idea. However, the actual figure is 3 times what was expected. Surely someone might have factored in the delay in Corp tax payments in their expectations? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone baby gone Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 I think you mean Dec 08/Jan 09. What it also doesn't include is all the temporary Christmas hires who are now flooding back into the stats. There are 10's of thousands at the supermarkets alone. Sorry, yes - my mistake. December will include the staff from Woolworths and Zavvi as well, approx another 30,000 on their own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieChuck Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 On PSNCR, I am not familiar with it, other than a rough idea. However, the actual figure is 3 times what was expected. Surely someone might have factored in the delay in Corp tax payments in their expectations? From ONS http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/psf0109.pdf i was wrong, It seems late payment of taxes weren't to blame, our old friend RBS accounts for £20bn of a total of 39bn financial interventions. page 5 of the report Special factorsThe central government and public sector net cash requirements for December 2008 include cash flows arising from Government’s financial sector interventions. Those for central government total approximately £39bn while those for the public sector total £22bn. The net effect of these financial sector interventions is to increase public sector net debt by £22bn. They comprise : • the near £20bn capital recapitalisation of RBS (see net acquisition of company securities in Table PSF5); • the refinancing by HM Treasury of a large part of the Financial Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) loans from the Bank of England; and • the provision of a working capital facility to Bradford & Bingley by HM Treasury, replacing that provided by the Bank of England. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 On course for 3m unemployed by the summer me thinks. Browns miracle economy is unwinding very quickly, 10 years to create and just a few years to undo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 From ONShttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/psf0109.pdf i was wrong, It seems late payment of taxes weren't to blame, our old friend RBS accounts for £20bn of a total of 39bn financial interventions. page 5 of the report Ah right. Thanks for looking at that. so without these extraordinary items it was 19 billion then? still worse than expected (although rounding may make it nearer than the 1 billion). And I son't know why Gordy was haranguing the banks for these dodgy loans. Surely he knows that debt is wealth? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CharlieChuck Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Ah right.Thanks for looking at that. so without these extraordinary items it was 19 billion then? still worse than expected (although rounding may make it nearer than the 1 billion). And I son't know why Gordy was haranguing the banks for these dodgy loans. Surely he knows that debt is wealth? They'll be another extraordinary month this month as The HBOS/Lloyds share purchase was in January, plus any other bailouts that may happen in the next week and a half. At some point extraordinary becomes ordinary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DoctorJ Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 So not as bad as expected then. but it will get worse thrughout 2009. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobthe~ Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 They'll be another extraordinary month this month as The HBOS/Lloyds share purchase was in January, plus any other bailouts that may happen in the next week and a half. At some point extraordinary becomes ordinary. Indeed. Still as Ron used to say, a trillion here, a trillion there. Soon you are talking real money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Van Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 131,000 gone. I expect at least that many again in Nov-Dec when the figures are released next month. They will do well to keep it below 3m by end of 2009. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
interestrateripoff Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 131,000 gone. I expect at least that many again in Nov-Dec when the figures are released next month.They will do well to keep it below 3m by end of 2009. As I said 3m by summer by end of 2009 they'll have done well to keep it below 4m. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 Claimant count: 3.6% (expected 3.5%)Unemployment rate: 6.1% Jobless Claims change: 77.9k (81k) Avg earnings inc bonus 3.1% (3.3%) Avg earnings ex bonus (3.6%) M4 Money supply MOM 1.7% (0.9%) M4 YOY 16.6% (16%) Public sector net borrowing 14.9B (10.5B) PSNCR 44.2B (18B) Bump Is GDP due Fri ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joey Buttafueco Jr Posted January 21, 2009 Author Share Posted January 21, 2009 BumpIs GDP due Fri ? Yes, the advance numbers Expected: -1.2% QoQ, -1.4% YOY Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ash4781 Posted January 21, 2009 Share Posted January 21, 2009 (edited) Yes, the advance numbersExpected: -1.2% QoQ, -1.4% YOY cheers so that'll be an interesting day Source: http://www.statistics.gov.uk/ http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=192 Edited January 21, 2009 by Ash4781 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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