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Joey Buttafueco Jr

Unemployment Numbers (and M4, Borrowing, Public Finances And Earnings)

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Claimant count: 3.6% (expected 3.5%)

Unemployment rate: 6.1%

Jobless Claims change: 77.9k (81k)

Avg earnings inc bonus 3.1% (3.3%)

Avg earnings ex bonus (3.6%)

M4 Money supply MOM 1.7% (0.9%)

M4 YOY 16.6% (16%)

Public sector net borrowing 14.9B (10.5B)

PSNCR 44.2B (18B)

Edited by Noel

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TBH I'm not that clued up on the PSNCR number, but the previous high was 17.33 back in 2007, so this is significant

If I remember correctly reduced taxation receipts can bring big hikes in this (i.e. they were expecting 100bn to be paid, but only 80bn was paid). Schemes were announced in November allowing struggling companies extra help to delay payments (VAT, PAYE and Corp tax), I'd guess part of this is the result of that. This could be one a month anomaly (i.e. if everyone decides to pay one month later, the first month will show a big shortfall then future months would go back to to existing level) but with rising unemployment it would have risen anyway (more benefits to pay less tax receitps to pay them with).

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From the article:

"That does not include the tens of thousands of jobs cut since November."

Oh dear. So all that bad news in Nov / Dec 2008 is still to come.

I think you mean Dec 08/Jan 09. What it also doesn't include is all the temporary Christmas hires who are now flooding back into the stats. There are 10's of thousands at the supermarkets alone.

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I think you mean Dec 08/Jan 09. What it also doesn't include is all the temporary Christmas hires who are now flooding back into the stats. There are 10's of thousands at the supermarkets alone.

So if this is November, then by year end, we will pretty much be guaranteed to hit that 2 million mark.

Also, isn't there a delay before you can be included in the claimant count?

That might mean that these figures are not as high as they perhaps ought to be.

On PSNCR, I am not familiar with it, other than a rough idea. However, the actual figure is 3 times what was expected. Surely someone might have factored in the delay in Corp tax payments in their expectations?

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I think you mean Dec 08/Jan 09. What it also doesn't include is all the temporary Christmas hires who are now flooding back into the stats. There are 10's of thousands at the supermarkets alone.

Sorry, yes - my mistake. December will include the staff from Woolworths and Zavvi as well, approx another 30,000 on their own.

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On PSNCR, I am not familiar with it, other than a rough idea. However, the actual figure is 3 times what was expected. Surely someone might have factored in the delay in Corp tax payments in their expectations?

From ONS

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/psf0109.pdf

i was wrong, It seems late payment of taxes weren't to blame, our old friend RBS accounts for £20bn of a total of 39bn financial interventions. page 5 of the report

Special factors

The central government and public sector net cash requirements for

December 2008 include cash flows arising from Government’s

financial sector interventions. Those for central government total

approximately £39bn while those for the public sector total £22bn.

The net effect of these financial sector interventions is to increase

public sector net debt by £22bn. They comprise :

• the near £20bn capital recapitalisation of RBS (see net acquisition

of company securities in Table PSF5);

• the refinancing by HM Treasury of a large part of the Financial

Services Compensation Scheme (FSCS) loans from the Bank of

England; and

• the provision of a working capital facility to Bradford & Bingley by

HM Treasury, replacing that provided by the Bank of England.

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From ONS

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/pdfdir/psf0109.pdf

i was wrong, It seems late payment of taxes weren't to blame, our old friend RBS accounts for £20bn of a total of 39bn financial interventions. page 5 of the report

Ah right.

Thanks for looking at that.

so without these extraordinary items it was 19 billion then?

still worse than expected (although rounding may make it nearer than the 1 billion).

And I son't know why Gordy was haranguing the banks for these dodgy loans. Surely he knows that debt is wealth?

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Ah right.

Thanks for looking at that.

so without these extraordinary items it was 19 billion then?

still worse than expected (although rounding may make it nearer than the 1 billion).

And I son't know why Gordy was haranguing the banks for these dodgy loans. Surely he knows that debt is wealth?

They'll be another extraordinary month this month as The HBOS/Lloyds share purchase was in January, plus any other bailouts that may happen in the next week and a half. At some point extraordinary becomes ordinary.

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They'll be another extraordinary month this month as The HBOS/Lloyds share purchase was in January, plus any other bailouts that may happen in the next week and a half. At some point extraordinary becomes ordinary.

Indeed.

Still as Ron used to say, a trillion here, a trillion there. Soon you are talking real money.

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131,000 gone. I expect at least that many again in Nov-Dec when the figures are released next month.

They will do well to keep it below 3m by end of 2009.

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131,000 gone. I expect at least that many again in Nov-Dec when the figures are released next month.

They will do well to keep it below 3m by end of 2009.

As I said 3m by summer by end of 2009 they'll have done well to keep it below 4m.

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Claimant count: 3.6% (expected 3.5%)

Unemployment rate: 6.1%

Jobless Claims change: 77.9k (81k)

Avg earnings inc bonus 3.1% (3.3%)

Avg earnings ex bonus (3.6%)

M4 Money supply MOM 1.7% (0.9%)

M4 YOY 16.6% (16%)

Public sector net borrowing 14.9B (10.5B)

PSNCR 44.2B (18B)

Bump

Is GDP due Fri ?

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
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      • up 5%



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