Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Guest

Tired Of Hearing How Bernanke Is An Expert On The Great Depression?

Recommended Posts

Guest

It's very long and equally good. he attempts to dispel the myth that bernanke is somehow way ahead of the game because of his studies on GD1. And does a fine job.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2009/01...eat-depression/

' 'How about Bernanke today? Well, as Mark Twain once said, history doesn’t repeat, but it sure does rhyme. Just four years ago, as a Governor of the Federal Reserve, Bernanke was an enthusiastic contributor to the “debate” within neoclassical economics that the global economy was experiening “The Great Moderation”, in which the trade cycle was a thing of the past–and he congratulated the Federal Reserve and academic economists in general for this success, which he attributed to better monetary policy:

“In the remainder of my remarks, I will provide some support for the “improved-monetary-policy” explanation for the Great Moderation.”

Good call Ben. We have now moved from “The Great Moderation!” to “The Great Depression?” as the debating topic du jour.

On that front, his analysis of what caused the Great Depression certainly doesn’t imbue confidence. This chapter (first published in 1995 in the neoclassical Journal of Money Credit and Banking [ February 1995, v. 27, iss. 1, pp. 1-28]–the same year my Minskian model of Great Depressions was published in the non-neoclassical Journal of Post Keynesian Economics [Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 607-635]) considers several possible causes:

A neoclassical, laboured re-working of Fisher’s debt-deflation hypothesis, to interpret it as a problem of “agency”–”Intuitively, if a borrower can contribute relatively little to his or her own project and hence must rely primarily on external finance, then the borrower’s incentives to take actions that are not in the lender’s interest may be relatively high; the result is both deadweight losses (for example, inefliciently high risk-taking or low effort) and the necessity of costly information provision and monitoring)” (p. 17);

Aggregate demand shocks from the return to the Gold Standard and its effect on world money supplies; and

Aggregate supply shocks from the failure of nominal wages to fall–”The link between nominal wage adjustment and aggregate supply is straightforward: If nominal wages adjust imperfectly, then falling price levels raise real wages; employers respond by cutting their workforces” (p. 21).

None of these “causes” includes excessive private debt–the phenomenon that I hope now even Ben Bernanke can see was the cause of the Great Depression–and the reason why he and neoclassical economists like him are no longer discussing “The Great Moderation”.

Whle they were doing that, a minority of economists–myself included–were avidly developing both Fisher and Minsky’s theories of Great Depressions. We are known generally as “Post Keynesian” economists, and there Minsky is an intellectual hero. And how did Ben handle Minsky? I have yet to read all of the Essays, but a blogger who has made the following comment:

In the entire volume (Bernanke, ‘Essays on Great Depression’, 2000, Princeton) there is a single refence to Minsky in Part Two, page 43 - “Hyman Minsky (1977) and Carles Kindleberger (1978) have … argued for the inherent instability of the financial system but in doing so have had to depart from the assumption of rational economic behaviour.” A footnote adds - “I do not deny the possible importance of irrationality in economic life; however it seems that the best research strategy is to push the rationality postulate as far as it will go.”

No need for any comment!!!!!!!

Indeed! Having not properly comprehended the best contemporary explanation of the Great Depression, and dismissed the best modern explanation because it didn’t make an assumption that neoclassical economists insist upon, Bernanke is now trapped repeating history (incidentally, this comment by Bernanke also gives the lie to the “assumptions don’t matter, it’s only the results that count” nonsense that Friedman dished up as neoclassical economic methodology–neoclassical economists in fact care desperately about their assumptions and are willing to dismiss rival theories simply because they don’t make the same assumptions, regardless of how accurate they are). It is painfully obvious that the real cause of this current financial crisis was the excessive build-up of debt during preceding speculative manias dating back to the mid-1980s. The real danger now is that, on top of this debt mountain, we are starting to experience the slippery slope of falling prices.

In other words, the cause of our current financial crisis is debt combined with deflation–precisely the forces that Irving Fisher described as the causes of the Great Depression back in 1933.'

...

Edited by the reaper

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bernanke is an expert on the 30's depression.

What happened than and now is totally different.

In 29 the big investment banks got out before the shit hit the fan. This time the big investment banks where stood in the middle of the shit when it hit the fan.

29 was a far simpler problem, this is a monumental giant turd where no one has any real idea just how bad it is.

The banks will get wiped out in this, unlike in 29 when they bailed and everyone else took the hit.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I thought his great thesis's where on the Depression.

http://press.princeton.edu/titles/6817.html

His "great" thesis was on the great depression, however, the OP's linked article puts a very pursuasive argument that he was and is barking up the wrong tree. The gist being that he is looking at the cause and treatment of economic depressions through the rose tinted specatacles of neo classical economics which always assume market equilibrium.

It's a bloody great read actually.

Take a look a Fishers process leading to depression, to me it reads like an economic roadmap of the last decade or 2:

"Fisher argued that the process that leads to a Depression is the following:

(1) Debt liquidation leads to distress selling and to

(2) Contraction of deposit currency, as bank loans are paid off, and to a slowing down of velocity of circulation. This contraction of deposits and of their velocity, precipitated by distress selling, causes

(3) A fall in the level of prices, in other words, a swelling of the dollar. Assuming, as above stated, that this fall of prices is not interfered with by reflation or otherwise, there must be

(4) A still greater fall in the net worths of business, precipitating bankruptcies and

(5) A like fall in profits, which in a “capitalistic,” that is, a private-profit society, leads the concerns which are running at a loss to make

(6) A reduction in output, in trade and in employment of labor. These losses, bankruptcies, and unemployment, lead to

(7) Pessimism and loss of confidence, which in turn lead to

(8) Hoarding and slowing down still more the velocity of circulation. The above eight changes cause

(9) Complicated disturbances in the rates of interest, in particular, a fall in the nominal, or money, rates and a rise in the real, or commodity, rates of interest.” (Econometrica, 1933, Volume 1, p. 342)

I'd say we've seen all of the above so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.