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Guest Winnie

The Week Ahead - Scary

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Guest Winnie

This week is a major headache for Brown in terms of data alone. CPI, RPI, BoE Minutes, Jobless Claims, Public Sector Borrowing and on Friday the crescendo - Quarterly GDP data which will make our recession fully official (oh and with the chorus being retail sales figures that day too)

When the last GDP data came out the pound swooned - and that was just the teaser. After the fanfare with the bailout people will go back to shorting the hell out of the banks - and we could see a Barclays crisis. Barclays has much more of a name impact round the world than Crock, HBOS and RBS.

At what point do currency traders perceive the UK is on a new leg down into the abyss and the IMF phone number moves to the front of Gordon's desk? I think that is when the run will start to look likely and it could be imminent.

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Pound versus the € has been bumblig along between €1.10 and €1.12 for a week now. No big change today so far, but I had expected one after the latest bank 'stuff', €1.106 at the moment.

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Guest Winnie
Pound versus the € has been bumblig along between €1.10 and €1.12 for a week now. No big change today so far, but I had expected one after the latest bank 'stuff', €1.106 at the moment.

Yes. I expected drops to be greater this am too. But there is a downward inflection across the board - a sense of wait and see but err on the downside...... Maybe this afternoon when the Obamaworld wake up we will see more movement.

I do think there will be a bear market rally on the DOW this week - it just about survived awful stuff last week, and seems to "want" to move higher. This is basically so a lot of people including hedge funds can get out before the next leg down and they are desperately trying to keep things alive for an Obama surge. This "return to risk" blip may give cable a small boost before Friday's GDP - in which case I will be buying more USD......

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This week is a major headache for Brown in terms of data alone. CPI, RPI, BoE Minutes, Jobless Claims, Public Sector Borrowing and on Friday the crescendo - Quarterly GDP data which will make our recession fully official (oh and with the chorus being retail sales figures that day too)

With that and the Moon in Aquarius . . . . . . I despair . . . . . .

Edited by Dave Spart

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Pound versus the € has been bumblig along between €1.10 and €1.12 for a week now. No big change today so far, but I had expected one after the latest bank 'stuff', €1.106 at the moment.

Give it a chance. The real players need to take on board the implications of GB's announcement and then get the funds together for an attack. My bet would be Thursday.

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Give it a chance. The real players need to take on board the implications of GB's announcement and then get the funds together for an attack. My bet would be Thursday.

Over the weekend I found a reasonable sum in Euros sat in the filing cabinet left over from last years holiday. I was kicking myself that I didn't know about them when we hit near-parity.

Looks like I might get a second chance.

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Over the weekend I found a reasonable sum in Euros sat in the filing cabinet left over from last years holiday. I was kicking myself that I didn't know about them when we hit near-parity.

Looks like I might get a second chance.

The euro is as toxic as the pound.

aka Irish republic Spain Greeks Italy and god knows how many other basket cases masking the situation.

Go ahead traders buy the Euro............................................................................

..................!

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Give it a chance. The real players need to take on board the implications of GB's announcement and then get the funds together for an attack. My bet would be Thursday.

But I thought currency and finance traders were sooo clever, hovering ready to strike, get in their first, sell, buy, show some balls, etc, etc, <_< Damn it Peter.... John!

Edited by deflation

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Give it a chance. The real players need to take on board the implications of GB's announcement and then get the funds together for an attack. My bet would be Thursday.

Complete BS, shows how little you know about the FX market. Players do not need to "get the funds" as they are buying one ccy vs another one.

The reason why £/euro is stable is that the Eurozone has very little to cheer about:

EU Sees Euro Area in Deepest Slump in 10-Year History

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

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Complete BS, shows how little you know about the FX market. Players do not need to "get the funds" as they are buying one ccy vs another one.

The reason why £/euro is stable is that the Eurozone has very little to cheer about:

EU Sees Euro Area in Deepest Slump in 10-Year History

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=206...&refer=home

It shows how much you really know about what goes on! Every time there has been an big anouncement, the market hasn't reacted straight away. It has taken about three or four days for any significant moves! Now get back to work!

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Every time there has been an big anouncement, the market hasn't reacted straight away. It has taken about three or four days for any significant moves!

This is simply not true. I rest my case.

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At what point do currency traders perceive the UK is on a new leg down into the abyss and the IMF phone number moves to the front of Gordon's desk? I think that is when the run will start to look likely and it could be imminent.

Mate, it's by far not only lunatic currency traders tht determine FX rates... Anyway, of all your 'news' list, which of them is private information, i.e. has not been priced in yet?

Once again, not saying the pound will never get weaker against EUR, but let's be clear about what does and what does not constitute news influencing relative currency valuations.

And by the way the run will have happened before Gordo makes a call to the IMF.

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funny thing is, if he just accepted the data, left the market to itself and took the flak on the chin, the whole thing would fix itself, by itself, returning value to savers and culling the debtors.

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maybe the euro has some basket cases, but the pound has only a basketcase.

It seems like a weak pound is government policy to me inflation the desired outcome.

The European unions lack of dynamism may casue losses of jobs etc etc but it should be good against the pound.

if the currency is a share of an economy and you have a balance sheet infront of you surely those shares in the UK are looking a lot worse.

Bloody scary either way

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Give it a chance. The real players need to take on board the implications of GB's announcement and then get the funds together for an attack. My bet would be Thursday.

The real players don't delay "safe" bets. The real players are not dumber than HPC.co.uk, or? ;) According to BLOND.. guy here, ECB did not cut the rates last week and pound was 110% certain to reach parity by the middle of last week.

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maybe the euro has some basket cases, but the pound has only a basketcase.

It seems like a weak pound is government policy to me inflation the desired outcome.

The European unions lack of dynamism may casue losses of jobs etc etc but it should be good against the pound.

if the currency is a share of an economy and you have a balance sheet infront of you surely those shares in the UK are looking a lot worse.

Bloody scary either way

Sterling has evens chance of going to soverign default one country one debt.

Euro zone has sixteen country at chance of soverign debt playing one currency..... sixteen times!

Currently at least 7 of those country are in serious difficulty.

Taders take your choice and find value.

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if its going to happen its going to be this week. i think a lot of GDP data comes out later this week, all with be worse than expected. i think this is the pinnacle of the insanity thats ruled since 1988.

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This is simply not true. I rest my case.

Well I suggest you open your silly little case and put your thick head inside it. Lets look at the evidence.

On Monday, when the announcement was made, there was hardly any movement in the currency markets. On Tuesday the pound lost 5 cents v the dollar and 2 cents v the euro. Yesterday it began to be defended as to be expected; being proved by the great recovery after the lurch down early evening but still finished down 2 cents v the dollar and 1 more v the euro. Today, so far, it is about even against the dollar and another cent off against the euro but this could change at anytime.

This pattern followed the previous announcement of bailout 1 and the 1.5% interest rate cut (go and look at the charts!). Nothing happened until a couple of days later. By the way, the defence of the pound will ultimately fail as it did when Subnormal Lamont tried it.

Even you must have heard what Jim Rogers has had to say about the pound recently. How many other VI's do you think there are in the background pulling strings even as we speak?

I suggest you go and by yourself a copy of 'Wall Street' and sit down and learn how markets operate. Please don't post anymore of your rubbish on this forum.

P.S. By the time Rogers or any other high profile commentator says sell the euro, it will be too late!

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Over the weekend I found a reasonable sum in Euros sat in the filing cabinet left over from last years holiday. I was kicking myself that I didn't know about them when we hit near-parity.

Looks like I might get a second chance.

I found a jar with 135 euros in the other day, at least half in coins. Hadn't realised Mr B had been quietly emptying his pockets after the odd business trip.

Keeping them for Greece in September, but might have to buy a bigger purse. ;)

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On Monday, when the announcement was made, there was hardly any movement in the currency markets. On Tuesday the pound lost 5 cents v the dollar and 2 cents v the euro. Yesterday it began to be defended as to be expected; being proved by the great recovery after the lurch down early evening but still finished down 2 cents v the dollar and 1 more v the euro. Today, so far, it is about even against the dollar and another cent off against the euro but this could change at anytime.

This pattern followed the previous announcement of bailout 1 and the 1.5% interest rate cut (go and look at the charts!). Nothing happened until a couple of days later. By the way, the defence of the pound will ultimately fail as it did when Subnormal Lamont tried it.

Hi maricon in spain, your posts are great entertainment value as ever :lol:

Can you explain exactly who and how has "defended" the pound yesterday?

Last night there was some speculation in the market that the G7 will discuss sterling's weakness at their next meeting. Surely you don't consider that intervention, do you maricon?

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Hi maricon in spain, your posts are great entertainment value as ever :lol:

Can you explain exactly who and how has "defended" the pound yesterday?

Last night there was some speculation in the market that the G7 will discuss sterling's weakness at their next meeting. Surely you don't consider that intervention, do you maricon?

It was quite clear from my post who was defending in it. And as you say there is a G7 meeting next week just why do you think that is? Markets are always a battle between vested interest and the ones with the greatest clout win. So simple even you could understand it.

You've added nothing to strengthen your argument and have proved you've lost by a pathetic attempt at an insult which you can't spell. I fear it is you that is the maricón de puta. :lol:

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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