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Frank Hovis

House Prices Could Start To Rise By End Of 2009

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...nd-of-2009.html

In teh telegraph, my formatting. Boy this is weak!

Affordability in UK housing has improved dramatically over the past year, meaning the property market could recover sooner than most economists expect.

.

.

If you:

  • can get access to a mortgage,
  • have managed to keep hold of your job and
  • have a decent deposit for your mortgage

, the affordability situation has improved greatly in the past year," said LSR's Jamie Dannhauser. "There are actual signs from the market that things are improving. There's no reason why you couldn't have a month by the end of the year where prices go up by 0.1pc."

However, the LSR's affordability indicator does not take into account the credit rationing by UK banks due to the financial crisis. Mr Dannhauser also warned that unless the Government and Bank of England embark on quantitative easing soon, it could provoke an even more dramatic fall in prices.

Right, so if you possibly can get a mortgage through having a 40% deposit and job you may be rewarded by seeing a 0.1% rise in a single month, a picture only marred slightly by the surrounding 2% monthly drops.

And unless the government prints loads of money then prices will collapse anyway.

Mmm... I think he wants to ask for his money back from that course on writing press releases!

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Affordability is definitely better, but the last paragraph is by far the most important:

However, the LSR's affordability indicator does not take into account the credit rationing by UK banks due to the financial crisis. Mr Dannhauser also warned that unless the Government and Bank of England embark on quantitative easing soon, it could provoke an even more dramatic fall in prices.

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Very similar story in the Express at the end of last week about rising interest from buyers. Interest from buyers has doubled in January according to Rightmove.

Is it really time to start looking to buy? :unsure:

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The banks have no money, the banks have no money.

The banks cannot afford to lend at current prices, the money would probably last a matter of months then there would effectively be no mortgages rather than just rationed by high LTV as at present.

And if you've forgot the banks have no money.

House prices will not recover unless someone finds a huge pot of gold.

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Very similar story in the Express at the end of last week about rising interest from buyers. Interest from buyers has doubled in January according to Rightmove.

Is it really time to start looking to buy? :unsure:

The 'rising interest' is just more people using Property-Bee.

I scan loads of postcodes daily and have no intention of buying...

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They all seem to be at it. Margaret Beckett, Krusty and some Christian guy on 5 live last night, Rightmove, various articles in the papers. Coincidence?

Someone on another thread said it's like a pincer movement.

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Very similar story in the Express at the end of last week about rising interest from buyers. Interest from buyers has doubled in January according to Rightmove.

Is it really time to start looking to buy? :unsure:

When the 'interest from buyers' translates into asking price offers, I'll start listening.

This was ALWAYS going to happen...the VIs are rallying (including the government, FFS) to get us all spending again and are DESPERATE for us to dive back into the property market - just at the point at which it's about to dive into the abyss.

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They all seem to be at it. Margaret Beckett, Krusty and some Christian guy on 5 live last night, Rightmove, various articles in the papers. Coincidence?

Someone on another thread said it's like a pincer movement.

I was on the phone to my mum today. She said I better know what Im doing by waiting, because "eveyone else" is saying now is the best time to buy.

Its psychological-warfare lol!

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the market will not go there that quickly - the speculative confidence has gone, people are not looking to move up the 'ladder', the banks will be factoring the falling values if they do lend on a property (unless they are seriously deranged) and insisting on a large deposit as a cushion against further falls. Most people do not have a large deposit, even their supposed equity in their current house if they are not FTBs is evaporating fast. I have lived thru other house price crashes and this will be longer and steeper because of the insane HPI bubble over the last 8 years. :(

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Guest theboltonfury
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...nd-of-2009.html

In teh telegraph, my formatting. Boy this is weak!

Affordability in UK housing has improved dramatically over the past year, meaning the property market could recover sooner than most economists expect.

.

.

If you:

  • can get access to a mortgage,

  • have managed to keep hold of your job and

  • have a decent deposit for your mortgage

, the affordability situation has improved greatly in the past year," said LSR's Jamie Dannhauser. "There are actual signs from the market that things are improving. There's no reason why you couldn't have a month by the end of the year where prices go up by 0.1pc."

However, the LSR's affordability indicator does not take into account the credit rationing by UK banks due to the financial crisis. Mr Dannhauser also warned that unless the Government and Bank of England embark on quantitative easing soon, it could provoke an even more dramatic fall in prices.

Right, so if you possibly can get a mortgage through having a 40% deposit and job you may be rewarded by seeing a 0.1% rise in a single month, a picture only marred slightly by the surrounding 2% monthly drops.

And unless the government prints loads of money then prices will collapse anyway.

Mmm... I think he wants to ask for his money back from that course on writing press releases!

do you think they'll keep pace with the rise in jobless?

fools

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economi...nd-of-2009.html

In teh telegraph, my formatting. Boy this is weak!

Affordability in UK housing has improved dramatically over the past year, meaning the property market could recover sooner than most economists expect.

.

.

If you:

  • can get access to a mortgage,

  • have managed to keep hold of your job and

  • have a decent deposit for your mortgage

, the affordability situation has improved greatly in the past year," said LSR's Jamie Dannhauser. "There are actual signs from the market that things are improving. There's no reason why you couldn't have a month by the end of the year where prices go up by 0.1pc."

However, the LSR's affordability indicator does not take into account the credit rationing by UK banks due to the financial crisis. Mr Dannhauser also warned that unless the Government and Bank of England embark on quantitative easing soon, it could provoke an even more dramatic fall in prices.

Right, so if you possibly can get a mortgage through having a 40% deposit and job you may be rewarded by seeing a 0.1% rise in a single month, a picture only marred slightly by the surrounding 2% monthly drops.

And unless the government prints loads of money then prices will collapse anyway.

Mmm... I think he wants to ask for his money back from that course on writing press releases!

Yes, even though major banksters are floating the depression word in public there's not reason why HPI can't get back to business as usual as soon as possible.

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The 'rising interest' is just more people using Property-Bee.

I scan loads of postcodes daily and have no intention of buying...

Good point. I suppose most people are having a look to see by how much prices have fallen already.

Like when I keep looking through car sales adverts for a Nissan GTR. Not that I ever plan to buy one...

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I agree with the OP article.

However, the odds of house prices rising or even plateauing by the end of the year are remote. Why? Because we are in the early stages of a massive correction with economic forces yet to be unleashed that will cause the recession to deepen to levels not known since the Great Depression. The single most important factor that house prices must have in their favour in order to rise is high employment and increasing incomes. Neither of these two factors are even remotely likely to occcur but rather the exact opposite.

These "news" items are pure propganda and should be an embarassment to whoever is authoring them.

Such an article might be true in 3 or 4 years time when the correction has brought houses down to affordable levels RELATIVE TO the new state of the economy where high unemployment and negative GDP will reign.

EAs, New Labour propagandists, Property Porn Artistes my message to you is simple: DREAM ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

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Guest Winnie

Many's the time that Edmund Conway has shown himself to have a massive mortgage of his own....the guy is probably as bad a HP Bull as David Smith - and is always trying to pump up fantasy-land ideas of a recovery at any opportunity.

Rightmove have lost a ton of subscribers (EAs) and in order to stay solvent are trying to do a Beckett - ie select small statistically insignificant little pieces of data which paint a wholly contradictory picture to that of the bulk of the data and push a half-crazed story out of them.

Remember - ignore Edmund Conway pieces they have been rubbished for several years on this site.

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Many's the time that Edmund Conway has shown himself to have a massive mortgage of his own....the guy is probably as bad a HP Bull as David Smith - and is always trying to pump up fantasy-land ideas of a recovery at any opportunity.

Rightmove have lost a ton of subscribers (EAs) and in order to stay solvent are trying to do a Beckett - ie select small statistically insignificant little pieces of data which paint a wholly contradictory picture to that of the bulk of the data and push a half-crazed story out of them.

Remember - ignore Edmund Conway pieces they have been rubbished for several years on this site.

Unfashionable I know,but I can see a scenario for price rises,if not in 2009 then in spring 2010. My theory is predicated on falls of 2% per month throughout 2009.This would take us to a point about 20% lower than the year start (Don't forget before you blast my maths that falls are effectively compounded downwards so it won't be 24%) If prices were down to that level property will look good value and it would draw in buyers as repayments are going to be well below rentals.

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The 'rising interest' is just more people using Property-Bee.

I scan loads of postcodes daily and have no intention of buying...

Exactly - probably people are looking on websites to try to gauge how much their own house has fallen in price - trying to decide whether they can MEW any more cash for that vital new X5 or XF or XXX whatever...

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Many's the time that Edmund Conway has shown himself to have a massive mortgage of his own....the guy is probably as bad a HP Bull as David Smith - and is always trying to pump up fantasy-land ideas of a recovery at any opportunity.

It did occur to me whilst reading that article that Mr Edmund Conway might have a few properties on the market that he can't shift.

Quick write an article, any article!

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Exactly - probably people are looking on websites to try to gauge how much their own house has fallen in price - trying to decide whether they can MEW any more cash for that vital new X5 or XF or XXX whatever...

WHAT DO YOU DRIVE? BE HONEST

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If they decide to save up all thier seasonal adjustment and spunk it one month for a bit of feel good, we could have a positive month. Otherwise its probably a no, we obviously won't see any rises in the front half, where the majority of traditional up months fall and Q4 is usually pretty dead anyway.

Its pretty dam weak that the best VI spin can come up with now is a long shot at one (false) positive month in a year, probably best to stick with prices are higher than 200x for now.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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