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Quick Poll, How Bearish/bullish Are You Right Now On Property?

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Government are talking up the economy as are ea's and all other vi's. Most people know better but there are still buyers out there. How do you see things at the moment ?

Edited by richyc

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I became a bear in May '07 when my house went on the market and buyers were not beating down my door.

I am now more bearish than ever. My view is that we ain't seen nothing yet. I foresee no recovery in any market this side of 2011.

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I became a bear in May '07 when my house went on the market and buyers were not beating down my door.

I am now more bearish than ever. My view is that we ain't seen nothing yet. I foresee no recovery in any market this side of 2011.

I turned bearish late 06 having read a lot from peter schiff and alike, but never saw this coming soon or progressing so rapidly. You are a bit of an optimist compared to myself right now

Edited by richyc

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The choice i'm seeing at the moment is mortgage now at lowish fixed rate for 10 years, or mortgage later for probably higher rate but lower total amount.

Basically i'm looking to get ~40% off a new build near me, if i get it i'll buy it and stop worrying - whats got me stressed isn't the fact that the country is flucked, but that i've got a choice to make and don't know which way to go.

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Guest X-QUORK

I'd actually like the option to vote for a 60% fall. I think that's where we're heading, along with an economic depression.

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I am now more bearish than ever. My view is that we ain't seen nothing yet. I foresee no recovery in any market this side of 2011.

That's bullish not bearish.

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Government are talking up the economy as are ea's and all other vi's. Most people know better but there are still buyers out there. How do you see things at the moment ?

In 2005 the IMF said the UK party will go 35% down.

In 2007 I sincerely calculated a 50% fall without accounting for a recession on the scale of 1929.

There will be no bottom - baby boomers began to die in front of me and my previous models gave them a much longer lifespan than that.

Edited by threetimesdead

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We have already had a 20% drop. Prices are still falling at around 2% per month. There's nothing to suggest things will improve in the next few months so I'd say the 30% drop is all but guaranteed.

I think we really only need the last three options on this poll, -30%, -50%, total economic collapse.

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We have already had a 20% drop. Prices are still falling at around 2% per month. There's nothing to suggest things will improve in the next few months so I'd say the 30% drop is all but guaranteed.

I think we really only need the last three options on this poll, -30%, -50%, total economic collapse.

I think that there may be a short bounce into the spring depending on reaction to the new bailouts and how much new labia force their banks to lend, but it will be short lived and dead by summer.

I voted that there may be no bottom, I think that life is going to get very hard here much like post war. Am trying not to be an uber bear but just don't see how they can repair the damage done, least of all when taking measures that are making it worse.

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I feel that we could see prices drop a lot further - they are still declining in USA and they have been dropping longer than here. I'm guessing the bottom will be mid 2010. After that, recovery could take years, as said above, or it could be quicker, but not very quick.

However, I do think we might be seeing a weak seasonal bounce at the moment - with an increase in potential buyers that is reported by EAs, but I think it's probably just people who had decided to wait until the new year before doing anything.

Edited by blankster

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I voted 3.5 salary. But that's relative compared to the people still in employment, and the wage they might be able to acrue. I can really see general inflation in the economy without an associated wage inflation and without an increase in house prices.

So house prices > 50% off, world economy totally shagged until 2012, and then other places maybe seeing green shoots, whilst we're left behind as we're so off the scale compared to other places on betting the wrong way over the last 10 years.

I can actually see us becoming a bit like a larger version of Ireland, with a mass emigration to other countries to find work.

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I voted 3.5 salary. But that's relative compared to the people still in employment, and the wage they might be able to acrue. I can really see general inflation in the economy without an associated wage inflation and without an increase in house prices.

So house prices > 50% off, world economy totally shagged until 2012, and then other places maybe seeing green shoots, whilst we're left behind as we're so off the scale compared to other places on betting the wrong way over the last 10 years.

I can actually see us becoming a bit like a larger version of Ireland, with a mass emigration to other countries to find work.

So is your passport upto date? Got an exit strategy?

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Not sure where the bulls came from but it is getting late and maybe they are the drinkers among us :lol:

Washis yoush problm? you slooking at my birdshs titsh!

:unsure:

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house prices will rise in the 2nd half of this year due to high inflation

in real terms though i expect house prices to be 3xwages within 2 years

if you look at the house prices adjusted for inflation graph you will see during the 30s house prices fell in real terms , we are heading for a worse decline than the 30s so i expect 3xwages instead of 3.5

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The choice i'm seeing at the moment is mortgage now at lowish fixed rate for 10 years, or mortgage later for probably higher rate but lower total amount.

Basically i'm looking to get ~40% off a new build near me, if i get it i'll buy it and stop worrying - whats got me stressed isn't the fact that the country is flucked, but that i've got a choice to make and don't know which way to go.

yep thats my problem too. worse though by the time people up here accept prices are falling mortgages will already be sky high... :angry:

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There will be no bottom - baby boomers began to die in front of me and my previous models gave them a much longer lifespan than that.

Interesting (if rather dark) point TTD, that boomer bulge is a whole different bubble ready to burst

I have long thought about cost of living on fixed income, downsizing, health care costs etc. but I wonder what effect a severe downturn will have on lifespan.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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