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Is Activity Really Picking Up ?

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First posting for me.

Been visiting a few houses in South-West London over last 2 weeks and heard/noticed from various EAs that they had been busier since Christmas. Also seen a few more 'under offer' signs.

Is it :

- a marketing trick (which I suspect)

- normal for the season

- a dead cat bounce

- or a new reality ?

Cheers

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I Was in EA on Friday and they told me things are picking up, also seen more properties sold on property bee.

Hope its just dead cat bounce as prices around here have hardly moved at all.

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I hate to say it but this is what i was told by 2 EA's Dorset i phonend yesterday ....

First EA "things have picked since new year , we've had 2 properties go under offer this week " .... WOW :rolleyes: .... both took a decent amount of asking prices i was told , she was encouraging me too make offers if we were interested in anything , asked for my number { witheld } manager would call back , bla bla bla bla ....

Second EA again "things have picked up" , one house i asked about that was 255k { needs work } has accepted a offer but it was substancially below asking , again asked for my details i declinend .

There is defo a pick up but there always is this time of year , also accepting offers doesn't mean it's sold, i didn't bother to explain that to the EA's as they were both women and seemed so excited that someone was actually phoning up asking about there properties :rolleyes:

Edited by grey shark

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Well one way of trying to figure it out, is to search local area for new properties added within say 7 days, and see how many are Under offer or SSTC. For instance in my loal areas, 60 properties on in 7 days, 2 sold, both at very low askings prices. So I dont think its going mad out there,

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Round here, prices hardly moved throughout 2008, however, the EAs are advertising a lot now in the local papers (notably absent in Dec.) and seem to have a lot of 'new' stock. Hoping for a bounce I expect.

I think that over Xmas / New Year, a lot of people watched a lot of TV and the 15% - 18% Haliwide price drops were splashed across a lot of news bulletins. Reality has sunk in and asking prices are now definitely down 15% - 20%, locally anyway.

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here in chi chi west yorkshire EAs were frank about deflated markets at the end of last year but are also apparently busy with viewings at the moment if not the sellings. no real asking price drops, 10% tops i am afriad. don't know about selling prices, too few to count.

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mapprov_550x350_2000-2009_100.png

Hmm.. so mortgage approvals must be around 20,000 a month now... and repos are at 79,000 a month.

This is the upturn that that Labour drone Beckett is referring to?

79,000 repos a month is getting close to 1 MILLION REPOSESSIONS A YEAR

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Hmm.. so mortgage approvals must be around 20,000 a month now... and repos are at 79,000 a month.

This is the upturn that that Labour drone Beckett is referring to?

79,000 repos a month is getting close to 1 MILLION REPOSESSIONS A YEAR

Repo's no where near 79,000 a month here in the UK .... BUT over in the states foreclosures running at around 79,000 a month , suspect with all the bearish news you've got your countries mixed up :)

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I hate to say it but this is what i was told by 2 EA's Dorset i phonend yesterday ....

First EA "things have picked since new year , we've had 2 properties go under offer this week " .... WOW :rolleyes: .... both took a decent amount of asking prices i was told , she was encouraging me too make offers if we were interested in anything , asked for my number { witheld } manager would call back , bla bla bla bla ....

Second EA again "things have picked up" , one house i asked about that was 255k { needs work } has accepted a offer but it was substancially below asking , again asked for my details i declinend .

There is defo a pick up but there always is this time of year , also accepting offers doesn't mean it's sold, i didn't bother to explain that to the EA's as they were both women and seemed so excited that someone was actually phoning up asking about there properties :rolleyes:

I'm following a small corner of Dorset (3 EAs) - have been for a couple of years now. I'll believe that things are picking up when some of the stuff they've had on the books since summer 07 begins to shift. Some of it is still at Aug 07 prices, or very nearly, e.g. £5K off £300K. Hardly any new properties have appeared for ages (or at least none of the type I'm interested in) so checking the websites is getting seriously boring :( and a few long-standing properties that have been reduced substantially within the past few months are still sitting there all unloved.

Should add that anything super-special still tends to go U/O pretty quickly as long as it's not stupidly overpriced, but this is a small market and such properties are few and far between. Have noticed a few properties that were up for ages going for rental instead, and others have come off the market altogether.

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Surely it's all relative. If they've sold nothing in the past 2 months, then 2 sales in one month really is 'picking up', but in real terms this is still pretty dire. They could easily be the people who want to move, but decided to wait until after Christmas to do so. I'd like to see if this 'picking up' lasts beyond January.

We tried to book a viewing on a house, but the EA said they were busy all that week. Not too difficult to achieve if you only have 2 staff members though!

I think it's mostly just nosey people out to see what's on offer now that 'the house price crash has happened', and failing to see that prices are going to keep falling. Can't complain though, if it means someone buys my place!

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I'm in west wilts/north dorset area and I would say that the penny has dropped since Christmas. Started to see a good number of reductions in the last few weeks and a few houses starting to appear at approaching reasonable prices. Have to say there are still some properties out there that have been on for over 18 months and still at the same price :blink:

Most of the really expensive stuff has been pulled off the market round here.

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Repo's no where near 79,000 a month here in the UK .... BUT over in the states foreclosures running at around 79,000 a month , suspect with all the bearish news you've got your countries mixed up :)

Ah, I thought the newspiece on the HPC site this morning said something like '79,000 repos in December' - '79,000 repos in the year to December' would make more sense. Or perhaps it was a US story.

Shows how pessimistic I am about the UK economy though.

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I've seen a couple of houses go under offer since the start of the year. Both were overpiced and have been on the market for 9+ months.

Edit: To add North Hampshire area.

Edited by Rosepetal

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No not around here (Sussex) it isn't. Took my usual glance into EA windows on Saturday morning, not one customer in them. When picking up the property paper from one I asked how business was and they said "still fairly quiet". Three houses I've been keeping my eye on for last six months have fallen in price very recently. One by £15k. It's been on the market for months. Have only seen one Under Offer sign on my travels. Lots of For Sale though.

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First posting for me.

Been visiting a few houses in South-West London over last 2 weeks and heard/noticed from various EAs that they had been busier since Christmas. Also seen a few more 'under offer' signs.

Is it :

- a marketing trick (which I suspect)

- normal for the season

- a dead cat bounce

- or a new reality ?

At a guess, yes to all four of the above. And don't forget: every agent that's closed in your area is more business for the remaining ones. 50% agents closed, 50% more business per remaining agent, is still a 25% decline in overall activity.

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I'm following a small corner of Dorset (3 EAs) - have been for a couple of years now. I'll believe that things are picking up when some of the stuff they've had on the books since summer 07 begins to shift. Some of it is still at Aug 07 prices, or very nearly, e.g. £5K off £300K.

I know what you mean , since the downturn started 18 months ago it's been 10 x worse than watching paint dry , but defo seeing real reductions coming through now , quality houses of the type that we are interested in that 2 years ago flew off the shelf for 320k you can now get for sub 250k IF your chain free and in a proceedable posistion .

There are still the 'hardcore denialists' out there but most EA's i believe are working on these and with housing and economic bear food served up on our daily basis it should only be a matter of time before MOST of these 'hardcore denialists' are broken , start to get real and finally start dropping there prices to . :D

Edited by grey shark

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First posting for me.

Been visiting a few houses in South-West London over last 2 weeks and heard/noticed from various EAs that they had been busier since Christmas. Also seen a few more 'under offer' signs.

Is it :

- a marketing trick (which I suspect)

- normal for the season

- a dead cat bounce

- or a new reality ?

Cheers

As far as I am concerned, no not really. The only movement in the market seems to be developers selling off new builds cheap and probate sales where the beneficiaries are sensible about what price can be achieved. Apart from that we arent any busier at all!

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Im in redditch, I must admit I got recently bored looking and following the market, as the Deposit requirement increased, the demand seemed to decrease.

IMO its still dead, every month / week properties are listed as sold then available then sold etc, then in the end, they are on the auction list. Nothing seems to be selling in the open market, unless the price is RIGHT, by that i mean a BARGAIN.

Houses actually cost real money now, where as before it was monopoly money, and you actually need good credentials to get credit, some people dont realise the change that has happened, and are still putting offers in without realising things are changing in the mortgage market, daily, let alone weekly and monthly.

The reality is, during any recession house prices will fall as more suffer unemployment and repossessions, many will look for the bargain repossessions, rather than choose open market purchases if they are in a proceedable position.

DISCOUNT DISCOUNT DISCOUNT... thats the word on the street. I also think they are wise to Property Bee now. And re-list the property, rather than have 18 months worth of audit trail on properties

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Also just to add these low interest rates wont be around for long, its just delaying the inevitable for a lot of people.

The banks know this which is why you can't get a long term fix for a good rate for love na money.

its a shame, but it seems more expensive to buy a house now, as a FTB / Invester than it has been over the past 6 years.

How can the market recover from this, with falls of 15% per annum, will banks increase the LTV % or will they stay at 85% and 90% Max's

I expect if the government guarantee mortgages then 100% mortgages will come back to haunt us and keep prices high, shame but true.

On another note, my family (most of them) are moving to tenerife to lap up sunshine all year round for a bit, im tempted to go, but could do with being made redundant first as a bit of a golden goodbye first. So im biding my time and waiting.

Mark

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Been looking to buy in Shrewsbury, Shropshire since March 08. Prices have definitely fallen but the For Sales listings are split between competitively priced properties and deluded sellers who are stuck in 06/07. Not even big price falls are guaranteeing a sale. One example, a four bed town house semi I have my eye on, has been on the market for over a year dropped from 365,000 to 289,000 with little interest - expecting another drop this week. My offer of 205,000 was laughed out of the EA's office in November. Give it time... :P

However, based on my own observations on a few other properties in the area there's definitely a bounce happening at the moment in terms of sales (one recent property even went to closed bids). A lot of predominantly cash buyers are coming out of the woodwork to pick up bargains under the asking price.

I think this is largely a dead cat bounce ruled by fear. People are afraid of holding savings in sterling and are getting little return on IRs.

I'm looking to pay cash and need to fall a bit more for me to be able to get the right home for my family mortgage free. At the moment it feels like a real gamble - will I manage to buy before hyperinflation kicks in or UK PLC defaults? I'm very nervous about holding all my STR fund in sterling right now and am thinking of diversifying the risk.... Maybe sterling, gold and USD or Yen.

Edited by Mugwump Boy

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Dead in sales in the eastend of London. Rents seem to be holding up though - ridiculously overpriced 1 bed basement flat round the corner from me rented for £300/week

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Seen definite drops in Aylesbury. A year ago I was looking at 3 bed terraces. I have recently been looking at 4 bed semis for a similar price. I have settled on a 3 bed semi that needs loads of work, but even with spending £50k on it it will be cheaper than the 3 bed terraces from last year

This house was on for about £310,000 and dropped to £299,000 for most of last year. We viewed it. Last bought for over £300,000. The very similar (bit nicer) neighbours house was on for £210,000 before selling (started £250,000).

Through out the time we have been looking, anything which was low priced and unique sold very quickly - sometimes within days. Anything remotely expensive or just ordinary hung about for ages, often not selling at all.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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