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Uriah Heap

Long Slow Grind?

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Just about the worst outcome for everyone of this crisis would be for houses to fall in value slowly but steadily for years into the future.

I know that this isn't what is happening at the moment with monthly falls of 2% a year, but we are still at the stage of cutting off the froth at the top. Prices are still high by every way of looking at them, with the exception of comparing them to last year's insane values.

With the banks presumably chastened for some time to come, certainly for several years, without any appetite for debt and with people having to save a much bigger chunk of their deposits could we be in for a really prolonged decline in prices rather than a crash?

It isn't what anyone wants or needs. But doesn't it sill seem like a likely outcome from where we are now?

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Just about the worst outcome for everyone of this crisis would be for houses to fall in value slowly but steadily for years into the future

The Japanese and Great Depression looks like the most similar circumstances.

So fast drops for a couple of years, one slow year then boring for a decade.

If I can buy at 30-40% off, I would buy now, even knowing that I should not expect any real gain for at least a decade.

At 2-3% a month drops, I think we have at least one more year of fast falls.

VMR.

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Just about the worst outcome for everyone of this crisis would be for houses to fall in value slowly but steadily for years into the future.

I know that this isn't what is happening at the moment with monthly falls of 2% a year, but we are still at the stage of cutting off the froth at the top. Prices are still high by every way of looking at them, with the exception of comparing them to last year's insane values.

With the banks presumably chastened for some time to come, certainly for several years, without any appetite for debt and with people having to save a much bigger chunk of their deposits could we be in for a really prolonged decline in prices rather than a crash?

It isn't what anyone wants or needs. But doesn't it sill seem like a likely outcome from where we are now?

It's what I thought would happen, but I have been amazed at the speed and relentlessness of the falls so far (is it 15 months in a row?). However there is a long way to go and there's a lot of money being printed. To quote GK Chesterton, "there's a lot of ruin in a nation".

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Guest LongBlackKilt
Just about the worst outcome for everyone of this crisis would be for houses to fall in value slowly but steadily for years into the future.

Oh, yeah? I have to say that the possibility of infrastructure collapse and hyperinflation bother me a lot more.

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You look at what the government is doing, they are trying to prolong it all the time, they know prices are screwed but simply cannot allow them to fall overnight, each time they announce something (a beacon of hope) many feel prices will level off and refuse to lower their prices, then it comes to nothing and prices begin falling again.

People genuinely believe the government are going to stop the fall and will do everything in their power to do so, the sums being announced are unprecedented.

This 2 years before possession orders can be applied, help after 13 weeks its all delay tactics, in 2 years what will they do? Extend it for another 2 years? its all about staged falls.

By that time they may own the majority of banks and do whatever they feel is best, write the debt off, rent the property back to the occupants?.

Nobody knows, but if repossessions do not increase much over last year do not expect falls to continue, even with job losses mounting people may still be able to stay in their homes keeping the prices of other properties up.

With a general election getting ever closer expect even more radical action, repeat after me house prices cannot be allowed to crash house prices cannot be allowed to crash

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Guest theboltonfury
Just about the worst outcome for everyone of this crisis would be for houses to fall in value slowly but steadily for years into the future.

I know that this isn't what is happening at the moment with monthly falls of 2% a year, but we are still at the stage of cutting off the froth at the top. Prices are still high by every way of looking at them, with the exception of comparing them to last year's insane values.

With the banks presumably chastened for some time to come, certainly for several years, without any appetite for debt and with people having to save a much bigger chunk of their deposits could we be in for a really prolonged decline in prices rather than a crash?

It isn't what anyone wants or needs. But doesn't it sill seem like a likely outcome from where we are now?

who cares about houses. I am spending my deposit staying alive

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who cares about houses. I am spending my deposit staying alive

:lol: I often think along similar lines, house prices are only an indicator of far more serious concerns.

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You look at what the government is doing, they are trying to prolong it all the time, they know prices are screwed but simply cannot allow them to fall overnight, each time they announce something (a beacon of hope) many feel prices will level off and refuse to lower their prices, then it comes to nothing and prices begin falling again.

People genuinely believe the government are going to stop the fall and will do everything in their power to do so, the sums being announced are unprecedented.

This 2 years before possession orders can be applied, help after 13 weeks its all delay tactics, in 2 years what will they do? Extend it for another 2 years? its all about staged falls.

By that time they may own the majority of banks and do whatever they feel is best, write the debt off, rent the property back to the occupants?.

Nobody knows, but if repossessions do not increase much over last year do not expect falls to continue, even with job losses mounting people may still be able to stay in their homes keeping the prices of other properties up.

With a general election getting ever closer expect even more radical action, repeat after me house prices cannot be allowed to crash house prices cannot be allowed to crash

Whilst i dont like the government, I do think they are playing on both sides of the fence. I think all their efforts to support house prices are largley rhetoric. I think they also know that they will fall and are actually allowing it to happen, doing all they can to make people feal like they are helping.

In fact I think they knew that the buble would burst on the way up, but they allowed it to happen because it stimulated the economy, and so does the downfall. This is in comparison to a very steady chain of events with no investment opportunities etc. All im dsaying is that they created the bubble to stimulate the UK, to create change.

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According to Moneyweek, housing bear markets in the UK have never lasted less than 5 years. I think we have some way to go yet.

I am not sure about that. The peak to trough in the last one for London, was 3.5 years.

Other regions fell at a later time while London was recovering and rising, which is why it looked like

a. just a small drop of 70k to 61k (London fell 32% in that time, while my flat fell closer to 45%)

b. it lasted 5 years.

While obviously I have little regard for Kirsty Allsop's views, her point about markets being generally local is kind of fair.

This time round, everywhere went potty at the same time and everywhere is also going down at the same time.

Factoring in just how much worse this is than last time, however, I am not arguing with the 5 year conclusion. :)

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The Japanese and Great Depression looks like the most similar circumstances.

So fast drops for a couple of years, one slow year then boring for a decade.

If I can buy at 30-40% off, I would buy now, even knowing that I should not expect any real gain for at least a decade.

At 2-3% a month drops, I think we have at least one more year of fast falls.

VMR.

so would i looking for year 2000 prices to return

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One word....... Japan! :unsure:

Many words : Japan, Agentina, Venezuela, Russia, America, Zimbabwe, Ecuador.

Still have no idea how it turns out but the choices seem less appealing every day ......

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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