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Ricky_FTB

Hello All! Newbie In Need Of Advice Here!

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Hi everyone.

I have been a long time lurker on here, but never got round to registering to join in the conversations. I'll tell you all a bit about myself.

I'm 26 years of age and will be looking to buy a house next year or the year after as i recently got engaged to my gf and we are planning to get married in the next couple of years (no date set yet). We both have pretty secure (touch wood) jobs and i am on what i consider a high salary for my age.

I joined my current employer in 2001 on a 4 year contract and at the start of the employment, i considered buying a house, but decided not to. Instead i decided to save my money and wait until the end of the 4 year contract to see whether i was made permanent as i didn't want a mortgage if i wasn't sure of a job. Thankfully, i was made permanent at this stage, but it was now 2005 and we all know what was happening in the housing market! So at that stage, with everyone telling me "BUY NOW, YOU'LL MISS THE BOAT" i thought to myself, surely this cant go on forever and kept saving, and thank god i made that decision!

I still live at home with my parents and so have very little outgoings, and in the last 7/8 years, doing lots of overtime and being careful with my money, i have managed to save a substantial deposit (almost 6 figures) and would ideally like to buy a semi detached house in a nice area with minimal (or no) mortgage.

From reading this forum i have become aware and scared of inflation and how it can ruin the last 8 years of me being careful with my money. I have read about investing in gold/silver, foreign bank accounts etc, but i am a bit scared of putting my money into "un-normal every day" investments.

I want to know when you think houses will stop falling in real terms (ie not because of inflation) as it may be the best time for me to buy a house.

What would you all do in my situation?

Thanks

Rick

ps im new to all this whole economics business as you may have gathered (i'm an engineer!!!) so go easy on me!

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if you have neary six figures for a deposit for a semi then in a year you'll probably be able to get that semi for cash

depends were you are of course

where are you thinking of?

Edited by mr slump

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Sounds to me like you need a house mate. If I were you I would rent for 6-12 months then consider buying with the luxury of being a cash buyer in a falling market. Mind you, sounds like you have made some pretty canny decisions yourself so far. I should be asking you for advice! (I have large mortgage after buying in 06 to avoid "missing boat")

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Thanks for the replys guys. I'm going to be buying in the Ballymena area. Some places have dropped in price, but there are still an awful lot of houses in that area in particular that people are clinging on to '07 prices. When are they going to catch themselves on!? Do they think if they wait a few months they'll get those prices again? Are people that stupid?

I'm happy enough at home at the moment djw, but i'll be needing a house in the next couple of years whether by renting or by buying.

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Hi

I don't think you need advice - looks as if you've done everything right so far. No one knows when this market will bottom but I think we'll know when it does - some time off I would think. Keep building up your pile of cash - spread about a bit - and I'm sure you won't go far wrong. Six figures should easily buy something very nice in Ballymena before this is all over.

Of course don't rely on my opinion or indeed that of anyone else - if nothing more the housing bubble was testament to the number of daft beggars out there whenever property is concerned.

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Thanks for that nemesis.

I know not to rely on opinion, but i do value what people on here say. Every argument that the bears have is usually backed up by facts that make sense. Most bullish arguments are by EAs or VIs of some description, who can't back up what they say!

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Sounds like you're sorted Ricky.

Just my opinion but I'd say by the end of 2009 or start of 2010 will be the time to start seriously looking for a place.

Hopefully house prices will have dropped at least 20% this year, if I was in your position I'd want to buy a house with cash.

I think that would give you extra room to negotiate and the ability to put in lower offers

Cash buyer, no chain

Welcome to the forum!

Edited by YoungFTB

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Just my opinion but I'd say by the end of 2009 or start of 2010 will be the time to start seriously looking for a place.

While the indices will likely show house prices have fallen by more than 50% by the end of this year - it may be hard getting vendors to accept the situation. It would certainly seem that estate agents have realised the situation and are now putting the pressure on sellers rather than waste time on buyers who cannot afford to buy, in significant numbers, even at todays affordable price levels :rolleyes: That's why I would wait until the end of 2010. More vendors will be alot more willing to accept the reality given more time.

As VT has said - while unemployment is increasing and lending is contracting, house prices will continue to fall.

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While the indices will likely show house prices have fallen by more than 50% by the end of this year - it may be hard getting vendors to accept the situation. It would certainly seem that estate agents have realised the situation and are now putting the pressure on sellers rather than waste time on buyers who cannot afford to buy, in significant numbers, even at todays affordable price levels :rolleyes: That's why I would wait until the end of 2010. More vendors will be alot more willing to accept the reality given more time.

As VT has said - while unemployment is increasing and lending is contracting, house prices will continue to fall.

Totally agree with you BB BUT if you're a cash buyer I think you'll be able to put in lower offers than those relying on mortgages (more potential to negotiate imo)

It still totally depends on what happens to the economy (think we agree it's not looking good though)

I think the key factor is going to be unemployment, the higher unemployment does the more people there are going to be who are going to be more realistic about what they can get for their property, they simply won't have a choice.

I certainly don't believe that 2009 or 2010 will see the bottom of the property crash but I think by the end of 2009 we will be near the end of the big drops (Around 50% - 60% down hopefully)

For some people like myself I'll be happy with that, once I see 2005 rateable value houses for sale in my areas I'll be looking to buy.

Everyone has different opinions and goals on this aspect and I respect that.

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As the resident bull here, all I can say - don't miss the boat!

Which doesn't mean you have to buy now. At the moment, the boat, badly damaged by negative press reports, is undergoing extensive repairs. As bullish as I am, I think these will take at least a year, maybe two.

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I've been lurking on this forum long enough to realise that you're actually a bear in bulls clothing Sogy ;):P

In the long term I'm really bullish. I am sure the 2007 prices will be back! I just probably won't live that long. But you are so much younger, just a bit older than my son, so you should definitely see them. If your eyesight doesn't fail you in your old age...

I used to place great hopes on the Ukrainians, but now the nasty Russians don't let them steal gas any more, so they can hardly ever make as positive an impact on the NI housing market as the Kerrymen did...

Edited by Sogy

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As the resident bull here, all I can say - don't miss the boat!

....... the boat, badly damaged by negative press reports, is undergoing extensive repairs.

Ricky - remember I mentioned the daft beggars, this is what I mean.

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Ricky - remember I mentioned the daft beggars, this is what I mean.

Ricky,

dont get caught up in the numbers and statistics alone. if u really like a house thats on the market now, why not make a cheeky offer. by the time the market bottoms out, that house might not be for sale! if you get it now, the value might drop a bit, but it will come back up in time. it might be worth while taking a small (and temporary) drop in value if you find your dream house. get a decent balance of heart and head in the decision making

Edited by nigooner

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Thanks for all the replies guys.

To be honest around here at the moment there are very few houses in areas that i would want to live in, that are even remotely near a sensible price. In my opinion of course! Maybe i'm being too bullish!

Anything around 100k is a either a 'substantially reduced to sell' mid terrace, or a semi in one of the undesirable estates (not naming any names, and not meaning to sound snobby!).

I think the cliche of Ballymena people being 'tight' may be true :lol: because it seems an awful lot of people seem to be clinging onto 2007 prices in the hope they'll get it again!

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Ricky,

dont get caught up in the numbers and statistics alone. if u really like a house thats on the market now, why not make a cheeky offer. by the time the market bottoms out, that house might not be for sale! if you get it now, the value might drop a bit, but it will come back up in time. it might be worth while taking a small (and temporary) drop in value if you find your dream house. get a decent balance of heart and head in the decision making

Be careful of the old "dream house" argument - that's the sort of nonsense typical of estate agents and TV property pundits. Of course you want to love the house you buy - but, like the buses, there's always another one coming along. There is no rational reason ever to buy a house in a falling market unless your in a position to sell at the same time.

Put in a "cheeky" offer? With the prospect of a further two years of falling prices the offer at this stage would have to be downright rude!

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Be careful of the old "dream house" argument - that's the sort of nonsense typical of estate agents and TV property pundits. Of course you want to love the house you buy - but, like the buses, there's always another one coming along. There is no rational reason ever to buy a house in a falling market unless your in a position to sell at the same time.

Put in a "cheeky" offer? With the prospect of a further two years of falling prices the offer at this stage would have to be downright rude!

So true Nemesis. ;) I found a 'dream house' last year.

It ticked all the boxes apart from the 'price' box. Noticed the house has been reduced to a price I could buy and be mortgage free but now I don't want it!

Having lived in SE Belfast for 9 months we realise that the area isn't for us anymore, we prefer to live a bit out and are now looking Jordanstown//Greenisland/Newtownabbey direction!

I have seen 'dream houses' in our new area, but we are going to rent for a year as no house is worth being under unnecessary financial pressure - the dream soon dies when you don't have the money to live :(

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So true Nemesis. ;) I found a 'dream house' last year.

It ticked all the boxes apart from the 'price' box. Noticed the house has been reduced to a price I could buy and be mortgage free but now I don't want it!

Having lived in SE Belfast for 9 months we realise that the area isn't for us anymore, we prefer to live a bit out and are now looking Jordanstown//Greenisland/Newtownabbey direction!

I have seen 'dream houses' in our new area, but we are going to rent for a year as no house is worth being under unnecessary financial pressure - the dream soon dies when you don't have the money to live :(

I've seen houses for sale in SE Belfast for 290k now being rented at 550 / month - madness.

Out of curiousity, have you been renting in SE belfast close to your dream house to get a feel for the area? What were your reasons for realising that the area wasnt for you?

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I've seen houses for sale in SE Belfast for 290k now being rented at 550 / month - madness.

Out of curiousity, have you been renting in SE belfast close to your dream house to get a feel for the area? What were your reasons for realising that the area wasnt for you?

Hi Sarah,

Yeah, we live/rent round the corner from the old dream house.

I grew up in this area and maybe was a bit sentamental about returning here. But now we have realised that:

1. We miss our friends who are over the other side of town.

2. Being 'close to everything' isn't really a benefit for us.

3. I felt I was missing 'city living', when really I'm not a city person I've realised.

4. There isn't really anywhere or anyone for the kids to play with here. There are hardly any young families nearby, mostly older people, and the roads are too busy and dangerous. Although I have a dislike for new houses and shoe-box gardens..... there is something to be said for having young families around you whose children can play with yours around the green areas of new developments.

So, we have tried before we've buyed!

Edited by sophia

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"Be careful of the old "dream house" argument - that's the sort of nonsense typical of estate agents and TV property pundits"

You cant possibly tell me you dont have an ideal house?! i certainly have one. but its not on the market. unfortunately hugh heffner hasnT placed it on the market yet. if that came along in a falling market id certainly have a go for it!

There is no rational reason ever to buy a house in a falling market

Surely there is a reasoning to buy a house in a falling market. if everyone had that approach, no houses would sell after a decline in property prices, creating a vicious circle. its the old "catching a falling knife" scenario. when do you decide that it is a decent time to buy? 2 years is your opinion, but whos to say the gvmt isnt going to end up owning the majority share in more banks next week, for example, which could potentially ease the problem of banks not lending to each other and freeing up credit to potential mortgagees? and so giving the 2/3 year back log of first time buyers a real opportunity to get a house.

Put in a "cheeky" offer? With the prospect of a further two years of falling prices the offer at this stage would have to be downright rude!

if you look hard in the and in the right place, you can get a bargain that could 'beat the market' so to speak. this semi in bangor was bought for 111k at the end of last year.

http://www.propertynews.com/property/house...Park/JMHJMH4162

given the asking price of 147k now, you can afford a 36k drop in value before you start to lose money. (assuming it is worth 147k now, which it is not!) just an example. but a semi in bangor for 111k is getting towards sensible. i know its not ballymena, but its only an example.

but my arguement was if find a house u really like and can get it at a bargain price, whats to stop you having a go? it depends on your own enjoyment you would get from the property over time. a marginal utililty/ efficicient frontier thing in economist speak?! is the happiness the house brings you worth more than a monetary loss of 10k over the next 10 years, say?

Edited by nigooner

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... and so giving the 2/3 year back log of first time buyers a real opportunity to get a house.

I'll think you'll find that 0% deposit 125% mortgages, that were available in 2007, have used up the next 2/3 years worth of first-time buyers ;)

Tomorrows first-time buyers are currently trying to save a 10% deposit. Most will need a 25% deposit to get the good mortgage deals. They will need to prove that they have saved the deposit themselves. And they will need to have a very secure job too :blink:

Besides why buy now? Everyone knows that house prices will be cheaper tomorrow.

I would not have too much faith in the clowns in government. No previous government has been able to stop house prices falling to their fundamental levels. This government will not be able to prevent house prices falling to their fundamental levels either ;)

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but my arguement was if find a house u really like and can get it at a bargain price, whats to stop you having a go? it depends on your own enjoyment you would get from the property over time. a marginal utililty/ efficicient frontier thing in economist speak?! is the happiness the house brings you worth more than a monetary loss of 10k over the next 10 years, say?

I just don't see any house, that I would be interested in, that won't be £30,000 cheaper in 1 years time.

... and £30,000 over the remaining 9 years pays for alot of holidays :P

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I just don't see any house, that I would be interested in, that won't be £30,000 cheaper in 1 years time.

... and £30,000 over the remaining 9 years pays for alot of holidays :P

depends on the type of house...like bangor one. if that drops 30% from £111k i'll buy you your holidays* :D

*no i wont

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depends on the type of house...like bangor one. if that drops 30% from £111k i'll buy you your holidays* :D

*no I won't.

My brother bought a new house very similar to that in 2002 for £72,000.

It will depend how far prices undershoot on the way down ;) In my opinion - it is entirely possible that house will fall by 30% more to £78,000.

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  • 284 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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