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Bank Of England: Government's Economic Forecasts Unrealistic

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...-recession.html

Bank of England's Sir John Gieve signals more needed to tackle the recession

Sir John Gieve, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, warned that further interest rate cuts and fiscal measures will be required to tackle the recession, and suggested that the Government's economic forecasts were unrealistic.

Not long now for regime chnage. Brown is already dropping like a stone in the polls and more people are joining the dots between the imprudence of the last decade and the great crash we are enetering now.

The worse things become the more "independent" the bank and other creatures of government will speak out.

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Did anyone watch the politics show that comes after Question Time last night?

Diane Abbott as good as said that Gordon Brown was floating on air. Even she recognised some kind of psychological disconnect between reality and Gordon Brown's thinking that led her to question whether Gordon hasn't just lost the plot and got carried away on some messianic cloud where he views himself as the all-powerful saviour of the global economy.

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Did anyone watch the politics show that comes after Question Time last night?

Diane Abbott as good as said that Gordon Brown was floating on air. Even she recognised some kind of psychological disconnect between reality and Gordon Brown's thinking that led her to question whether Gordon hasn't just lost the plot and got carried away on some messianic cloud where he views himself as the all-powerful saviour of the global economy.

http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=RLCSHljSZ60&...feature=related

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Did anyone watch the politics show that comes after Question Time last night?

Diane Abbott as good as said that Gordon Brown was floating on air. Even she recognised some kind of psychological disconnect between reality and Gordon Brown's thinking that led her to question whether Gordon hasn't just lost the plot and got carried away on some messianic cloud where he views himself as the all-powerful saviour of the global economy.

did anyone see?

Question time when dimbleby (mydadgotmethisjob) in response to public quetion just let 'Shawn' the Sheep woodward rabit on and do a prty polictical broadcast saying how good brown/labour were- no inturrupt at all-despite just saying limited time etc -woodard rabbits on but when it came to Tory jobbie whoever he was allowed woodward to interupt and hurried tory speaker up and made jokes at his expense--

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http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publication...9/speech371.pdf

It proves many on here correct, same arguments we have been putting forward

suddenly seem obvious to them. Punch to the face for Labour.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The stock cycle is also depressing output. Stocks initially rise as sales falter and those stocks

of inputs, work-in-progress and finished output that companies have become more difficult

and expensive to finance. But running stocks down involves sharp cuts in production as we

are seeing in the motor industry.

......

Over-indebted households and companies will be pulling back on spending to try and pay

down those debts. Although the recent falls in commodity prices will help to mitigate some

of the downward pressure on household income, rising unemployment is not only

constraining the spending of those losing or not finding jobs but is likely to boost

precautionary saving across the household sector. And falling property prices are reducing

activity in the housing market and the construction sector.

.......

What is striking about the run-up to this recession is that we did not see the booms in output,

employment and wages that led to past recessions. Past recessions, in good measure,

reflected deliberate decisions by policymakers to rein in spending and damp the inflationary

pressures that had been building up. The rise in interest rates then led to a correction in the

spending behaviour of households and companies as optimism about future income growth in

the boom turned to uncertainty and gloom in the bust.

.......

I have argued elsewhere

that we need in future to relate these buffers to the state of the economic and financial cycle

so that they expand in good times and are sufficient to cover the inevitable losses in bad

times. In a sense the purpose of the recapitalisation in October was to put banks capital up to

the level it should have been had such counter cyclical measures been in place.

Edited by Mr. Parry

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I have argued elsewhere

that we need in future to relate these buffers to the state of the economic and financial cycle

so that they expand in good times and are sufficient to cover the inevitable losses in bad

times. In a sense the purpose of the recapitalisation in October was to put banks capital up to

the level it should have been had such counter cyclical measures been in place.

So it seems to me that the worst thing you can do is avoid a recession.

If we had regular recessions, then banks wouldn't believe that we could avoid boom and bust.

As many have said, we should have taken the recession in 2001/2 and/or 2005.

Maybe Central Banks (since let's face it they aren't going to be abolished), need to bump interest rates up every 7 years or so to put us into a recession, regardless of whether we actually need one.

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So it seems to me that the worst thing you can do is avoid a recession.

If we had regular recessions, then banks wouldn't believe that we could avoid boom and bust.

As many have said, we should have taken the recession in 2001/2 and/or 2005.

Maybe Central Banks (since let's face it they aren't going to be abolished), need to bump interest rates up every 7 years or so to put us into a recession, regardless of whether we actually need one.

And by pumping in more liquidity and trying to revive "normal levels of credit" all the BoE is doing is delaying the correction once again naking the incoming crash even more painful.

No lessons learnt...

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And by pumping in more liquidity and trying to revive "normal levels of credit" all the BoE is doing is delaying the correction once again naking the incoming crash even more painful.

No lessons learnt...

exactly. just on Bloomberg, some outgoing someone from the Bush administration predicing a really strong recovery early 2010.

when asked how they calculated it, he said it was based on history. After a big collapse, the boom following is severe.

Pity they didnt apply the same reverse logic 3 years ago.

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And by pumping in more liquidity and trying to revive "normal levels of credit" all the BoE is doing is delaying the correction once again naking the incoming crash even more painful.

No lessons learnt...

You mean history is to learn from?

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So it seems to me that the worst thing you can do is avoid a recession.

If we had regular recessions, then banks wouldn't believe that we could avoid boom and bust.

As many have said, we should have taken the recession in 2001/2 and/or 2005.

Maybe Central Banks (since let's face it they aren't going to be abolished), need to bump interest rates up every 7 years or so to put us into a recession, regardless of whether we actually need one.

it's almost like a random function is required to add a bit of dynamic instability into the system. A bit like the way the heart-rate is not completely stable, so it can respond to broader changes more easily, or that climate changes from year to year but has an over-riding long term stability.

the previous political cycle possibly - unintentionally - did this

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i assume this is a joke. sounds like some mental retard doing the voiceover, just in case people cant read.

Bruno is back!

  • Likes umbrellas

  • Dislikes HPC

  • Owns an AK-47

  • Threatened to shoot hpc people at a pub meet

  • Wary of inflation in the housing market

Edited by Mr. Parry

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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...-recession.html

Bank of England's Sir John Gieve signals more needed to tackle the recession

Sir John Gieve, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, warned that further interest rate cuts and fiscal measures will be required to tackle the recession, and suggested that the Government's economic forecasts were unrealistic.

Not long now for regime chnage. Brown is already dropping like a stone in the polls and more people are joining the dots between the imprudence of the last decade and the great crash we are enetering now.

The worse things become the more "independent" the bank and other creatures of government will speak out.

Just like RB's US election forecasts were unrealistic! :lol:

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Guest vicmac64

RB

On the button again - its my opinion that our economy cannot be saved. It is simply too far gone - it is in a death spiral.

The common sense views on this site have been saying this for many years - for most of us it is no surprise.

So how come a motley crew of posters could get it right - and a Government, the so called centres of learning that make up our Universities, economists bankers and every other vested interest get it wrong?

Some were STUPID no doubt, but many deliberately held the truth from the people of the United Kingdom.

I see no other explanation.

In any case all these so called economists should be reviewed without delay and any acrreditations stripped from those that failed the people of the United Kingdom.

The truth is the people of the UK have been a host to a myriad of charletan parasites.............

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/finance...-recession.html

Bank of England's Sir John Gieve signals more needed to tackle the recession

Sir John Gieve, the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, warned that further interest rate cuts and fiscal measures will be required to tackle the recession, and suggested that the Government's economic forecasts were unrealistic.

Not long now for regime chnage. Brown is already dropping like a stone in the polls and more people are joining the dots between the imprudence of the last decade and the great crash we are enetering now.

The worse things become the more "independent" the bank and other creatures of government will speak out.

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  • 285 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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