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Not sure who the guy is (Mark Dampier)writing this piece but I agree with everything he says

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/invest-...lt-1297373.html

Mark Dampier: Why the smile? This is all his fault

Over the course of the past few weeks, I have been criticised by friends for my pessimistic views on the UK economy, and on house prices in particular. I don't see what good it does to shoot the messenger, but I note that throughout history messengers have often received the raw end of the deal! I also find it increasingly difficult to be politically neutral; investment and politics are now more closely linked than ever.

I firmly believe that this government has systematically wrecked our economy over the past 10 years. They sold half our gold reserves at about $250 (£164) an ounce, and now the price is more than $850. They have taxed pensions, they raised taxes through complicated means so as to hide them, and they weakened regulation of the banking system.

Fatally, they not only spent the surplus money we had in the good times, but also borrowed more! They have used some of this money to expand our bloated public sector instead of introducing the dramatic cuts and reform it needed. The opposition parties haven't been much better, though, seemingly too scared to say anything that might offend the public sector or indeed anyone else. They've had an open goal wider than the Grand Canyon and completely failed to score.

Consequently, we go into 2009 with the economy in a huge mess and politicians of all parties blaming everyone except the people who are really responsible – themselves. Is it any wonder that I'm angry? I am sure that most of you are, too.

The underlying cause of the housing problems was an unchecked rise in land values. Indeed, as I have said in this column before, the only person to have foreseen this, to my knowledge, was Fred Harrison in Boom Bust (written in 2005). House prices in America are likely to fall another 15 per cent before they reach the bottom, making for a fall of at least 40 per cent in total. I mention this because our housing market was even more overvalued than theirs. So far, our housing market has fallen about 16 per cent, so there is a long way left to go, especially considering an almost-guaranteed sharp rise in unemployment this year. Anyone predicting a modest recovery later in 2009 is fooling themselves.

The best leading indicator of house prices is mortgage approvals, which makes sense as the vast majority of people can't buy a house unless they are first granted a mortgage. The graph on the right, which pushes the mortgage approval data forward seven months, reinforces my point (thanks to M&G for this data).

I believe we can expect at least a 20 per cent fall this year, and the market isn't likely to hit bottom until late 2010 at the earliest. Worse still, millions of people will be in negative equity, which will cause a big drag on the economy.

What solutions do our politicians have for our flagging economy? Labour want us to spend more in the shops, but a VAT cut that reduces prices by 2.13 per cent is far too small, especially as shops are slashing prices anyway, and we know that huge tax rises will come within two years.

The Tories' master plan is a tax break on savings (although not for everybody), but perhaps the irony is lost on them that if everyone now starts saving, the recession will be even worse! God save us from the politicians. As Ronald Reagan once famously said, the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

What we really need is a thorough overhaul of the tax and benefits systems, along with a huge cutting back of the public sector – but that would take some real hard work and great political courage, and might be difficult to sell to the public. Consequently, I expect to remain angry and disenfranchised for quite some time to come.

Next week, I will return to funds that I hope might prosper over the next few years (despite the politicians).

Mark Dampier is the head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown, the asset manager, financial adviser and stockbroker. For more information about the funds included in this column, visit www.h-l.co.uk/independent

Edited by Maddog21
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Guest AuntJess
Not sure who the guy is (Mark Dampier)writing this piece but I agree with everything he says

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/invest-...lt-1297373.html

Mark Dampier: Why the smile? This is all his fault

Over the course of the past few weeks, I have been criticised by friends for my pessimistic views on the UK economy, and on house prices in particular. I don't see what good it does to shoot the messenger, but I note that throughout history messengers have often received the raw end of the deal! I also find it increasingly difficult to be politically neutral; investment and politics are now more closely linked than ever.

I firmly believe that this government has systematically wrecked our economy over the past 10 years. They sold half our gold reserves at about $250 (£164) an ounce, and now the price is more than $850. They have taxed pensions, they raised taxes through complicated means so as to hide them, and they weakened regulation of the banking system.

Fatally, they not only spent the surplus money we had in the good times, but also borrowed more! They have used some of this money to expand our bloated public sector instead of introducing the dramatic cuts and reform it needed. The opposition parties haven't been much better, though, seemingly too scared to say anything that might offend the public sector or indeed anyone else. They've had an open goal wider than the Grand Canyon and completely failed to score.

Consequently, we go into 2009 with the economy in a huge mess and politicians of all parties blaming everyone except the people who are really responsible – themselves. Is it any wonder that I'm angry? I am sure that most of you are, too.

The underlying cause of the housing problems was an unchecked rise in land values. Indeed, as I have said in this column before, the only person to have foreseen this, to my knowledge, was Fred Harrison in Boom Bust (written in 2005). House prices in America are likely to fall another 15 per cent before they reach the bottom, making for a fall of at least 40 per cent in total. I mention this because our housing market was even more overvalued than theirs. So far, our housing market has fallen about 16 per cent, so there is a long way left to go, especially considering an almost-guaranteed sharp rise in unemployment this year. Anyone predicting a modest recovery later in 2009 is fooling themselves.

The best leading indicator of house prices is mortgage approvals, which makes sense as the vast majority of people can't buy a house unless they are first granted a mortgage. The graph on the right, which pushes the mortgage approval data forward seven months, reinforces my point (thanks to M&G for this data).

I believe we can expect at least a 20 per cent fall this year, and the market isn't likely to hit bottom until late 2010 at the earliest. Worse still, millions of people will be in negative equity, which will cause a big drag on the economy.

What solutions do our politicians have for our flagging economy? Labour want us to spend more in the shops, but a VAT cut that reduces prices by 2.13 per cent is far too small, especially as shops are slashing prices anyway, and we know that huge tax rises will come within two years.

The Tories' master plan is a tax break on savings (although not for everybody), but perhaps the irony is lost on them that if everyone now starts saving, the recession will be even worse! God save us from the politicians. As Ronald Reagan once famously said, the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

What we really need is a thorough overhaul of the tax and benefits systems, along with a huge cutting back of the public sector – but that would take some real hard work and great political courage, and might be difficult to sell to the public. Consequently, I expect to remain angry and disenfranchised for quite some time to come.

Next week, I will return to funds that I hope might prosper over the next few years (despite the politicians).

Mark Dampier is the head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown, the asset manager, financial adviser and stockbroker. For more information about the funds included in this column, visit www.h-l.co.uk/independent

Good post...totally agree! :D

MY personal grump in all this is that, having sold my house to move to a quieter place to retire and downsize - leaving my large detached in the metropolis available for a hard-working family :rolleyes: working in that area -and am renting a place whilst looking for one to buy, my interest from the funds for my house has reduced to a quarter of what it was. :o Meaning that I will have to use capital to cover my rent, so houses will indeed have to drop a good bit further, before I can buy one that is in the same excellently maintained condition I left my other home in.

Boiling in oil is too good for Gorgo. :angry:

Edited by AuntJess
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Not sure who the guy is (Mark Dampier)writing this piece but I agree with everything he says

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/invest-...lt-1297373.html

Mark Dampier: Why the smile? This is all his fault

Over the course of the past few weeks, I have been criticised by friends for my pessimistic views on the UK economy, and on house prices in particular. I don't see what good it does to shoot the messenger, but I note that throughout history messengers have often received the raw end of the deal! I also find it increasingly difficult to be politically neutral; investment and politics are now more closely linked than ever.

I firmly believe that this government has systematically wrecked our economy over the past 10 years. They sold half our gold reserves at about $250 (£164) an ounce, and now the price is more than $850. They have taxed pensions, they raised taxes through complicated means so as to hide them, and they weakened regulation of the banking system.

Fatally, they not only spent the surplus money we had in the good times, but also borrowed more! They have used some of this money to expand our bloated public sector instead of introducing the dramatic cuts and reform it needed. The opposition parties haven't been much better, though, seemingly too scared to say anything that might offend the public sector or indeed anyone else. They've had an open goal wider than the Grand Canyon and completely failed to score.

Consequently, we go into 2009 with the economy in a huge mess and politicians of all parties blaming everyone except the people who are really responsible – themselves. Is it any wonder that I'm angry? I am sure that most of you are, too.

The underlying cause of the housing problems was an unchecked rise in land values. Indeed, as I have said in this column before, the only person to have foreseen this, to my knowledge, was Fred Harrison in Boom Bust (written in 2005). House prices in America are likely to fall another 15 per cent before they reach the bottom, making for a fall of at least 40 per cent in total. I mention this because our housing market was even more overvalued than theirs. So far, our housing market has fallen about 16 per cent, so there is a long way left to go, especially considering an almost-guaranteed sharp rise in unemployment this year. Anyone predicting a modest recovery later in 2009 is fooling themselves.

The best leading indicator of house prices is mortgage approvals, which makes sense as the vast majority of people can't buy a house unless they are first granted a mortgage. The graph on the right, which pushes the mortgage approval data forward seven months, reinforces my point (thanks to M&G for this data).

I believe we can expect at least a 20 per cent fall this year, and the market isn't likely to hit bottom until late 2010 at the earliest. Worse still, millions of people will be in negative equity, which will cause a big drag on the economy.

What solutions do our politicians have for our flagging economy? Labour want us to spend more in the shops, but a VAT cut that reduces prices by 2.13 per cent is far too small, especially as shops are slashing prices anyway, and we know that huge tax rises will come within two years.

The Tories' master plan is a tax break on savings (although not for everybody), but perhaps the irony is lost on them that if everyone now starts saving, the recession will be even worse! God save us from the politicians. As Ronald Reagan once famously said, the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

What we really need is a thorough overhaul of the tax and benefits systems, along with a huge cutting back of the public sector – but that would take some real hard work and great political courage, and might be difficult to sell to the public. Consequently, I expect to remain angry and disenfranchised for quite some time to come.

Next week, I will return to funds that I hope might prosper over the next few years (despite the politicians).

Mark Dampier is the head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown, the asset manager, financial adviser and stockbroker. For more information about the funds included in this column, visit www.h-l.co.uk/independent

Great post, too true what you say about land prices, they used to be priced to allow for a 20% builder profit, I would say that for the last 4-5 years making money from building for us smaller firms has been damn near impossible (we have stuck to renovations and helping self builders of late).

What really annoys me is that land prices STILL haven't come down to realistic levels, people take the view that 20% drop in the land value is enough without considering that 20% of the land value is a lot less than 20% of finished value.

On the bright side however this downturn should see a return to quality rather than the free for all which lead to some of the worst property to have been built in this country.

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Not sure who the guy is (Mark Dampier)writing this piece but I agree with everything he says

http://www.independent.co.uk/money/invest-...lt-1297373.html

Mark Dampier: Why the smile? This is all his fault

Over the course of the past few weeks, I have been criticised by friends for my pessimistic views on the UK economy, and on house prices in particular. I don't see what good it does to shoot the messenger, but I note that throughout history messengers have often received the raw end of the deal! I also find it increasingly difficult to be politically neutral; investment and politics are now more closely linked than ever.

I firmly believe that this government has systematically wrecked our economy over the past 10 years. They sold half our gold reserves at about $250 (£164) an ounce, and now the price is more than $850. They have taxed pensions, they raised taxes through complicated means so as to hide them, and they weakened regulation of the banking system.

Fatally, they not only spent the surplus money we had in the good times, but also borrowed more! They have used some of this money to expand our bloated public sector instead of introducing the dramatic cuts and reform it needed. The opposition parties haven't been much better, though, seemingly too scared to say anything that might offend the public sector or indeed anyone else. They've had an open goal wider than the Grand Canyon and completely failed to score.

Consequently, we go into 2009 with the economy in a huge mess and politicians of all parties blaming everyone except the people who are really responsible – themselves. Is it any wonder that I'm angry? I am sure that most of you are, too.

The underlying cause of the housing problems was an unchecked rise in land values. Indeed, as I have said in this column before, the only person to have foreseen this, to my knowledge, was Fred Harrison in Boom Bust (written in 2005). House prices in America are likely to fall another 15 per cent before they reach the bottom, making for a fall of at least 40 per cent in total. I mention this because our housing market was even more overvalued than theirs. So far, our housing market has fallen about 16 per cent, so there is a long way left to go, especially considering an almost-guaranteed sharp rise in unemployment this year. Anyone predicting a modest recovery later in 2009 is fooling themselves.

The best leading indicator of house prices is mortgage approvals, which makes sense as the vast majority of people can't buy a house unless they are first granted a mortgage. The graph on the right, which pushes the mortgage approval data forward seven months, reinforces my point (thanks to M&G for this data).

I believe we can expect at least a 20 per cent fall this year, and the market isn't likely to hit bottom until late 2010 at the earliest. Worse still, millions of people will be in negative equity, which will cause a big drag on the economy.

What solutions do our politicians have for our flagging economy? Labour want us to spend more in the shops, but a VAT cut that reduces prices by 2.13 per cent is far too small, especially as shops are slashing prices anyway, and we know that huge tax rises will come within two years.

The Tories' master plan is a tax break on savings (although not for everybody), but perhaps the irony is lost on them that if everyone now starts saving, the recession will be even worse! God save us from the politicians. As Ronald Reagan once famously said, the nine most terrifying words in the English language are: "I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

What we really need is a thorough overhaul of the tax and benefits systems, along with a huge cutting back of the public sector – but that would take some real hard work and great political courage, and might be difficult to sell to the public. Consequently, I expect to remain angry and disenfranchised for quite some time to come.

Next week, I will return to funds that I hope might prosper over the next few years (despite the politicians).

Mark Dampier is the head of research at Hargreaves Lansdown, the asset manager, financial adviser and stockbroker. For more information about the funds included in this column, visit www.h-l.co.uk/independent

It how stupid we've become that people thinking saving is the same as not spending money. What's exactly wrong with saving up to buy your bigger purchases instead of splashing out with debt? Could it be that banking parasites can't enslave us with their usurious scams? Dampler is just another **** telling people to spend like a consumerist kamikases so the system he's done so well out of can continue a while longer yet. Another crony-capitalist slimeball who want society to be destroyed to reinflate the bubble. What a ****. He'd have people starving on the streets so he could happily go on stockbroking at the casino.

Also, for those that live on savings, typically retirees, a big cut in their income will have a disasterous effect of consumer spending. Go to your local department store and sees who'd buying all those big LCD tellies with the crispest pictures, who still buys Hondas come rain come shine, books the cruises - it's grey-haired people with old-school gilt-edged pensions, long paid off detached homes bought on hubby's salary in '69 for tuppence h'penny, savings in the bank. These debt-free super consumers are a powerhouse for anyone looking to sell stuff. Forget the royally-screwed iPod generations.

The tory idea to end tax on savings for normal earners is a good one, even if its only to correct the moral wrong of being taxed twice on the same money.

Edited by CrashedOutAndBurned
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Indeed, as I have said in this column before, the only person to have foreseen this, to my knowledge, was Fred Harrison in Boom Bust (written in 2005).

Sorry, what about the collective wisdom of housepricecrash.co.uk? Credit where credit is due, surely.

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Good post...totally agree! :D

MY personal grump in all this is that, having sold my house to move to a quieter place to retire and downsize - leaving my large detached in the metropolis available for a hard-working family :rolleyes: working in that area -and am renting a place whilst looking for one to buy, my interest from the funds for my house has reduced to a quarter of what it was. :o Meaning that I will have to use capital to cover my rent, so houses will indeed have to drop a good bit further, before I can buy one that is in the same excellently maintained condition I left my other home in.

Boiling in oil is too good for Gorgo. :angry:

You could always get a job Aunt Jess. Trolley collecting perhaps, something not too strenuous.

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The tory idea to end tax on savings for normal earners is a good one, even if its only to correct the moral wrong of being taxed twice on the same money.

....but you're not taxed twice on the same money. You're only taxed on the interest that you're paid.

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The telegraph has an even better article in it's property section.......that's if you can stomach the picture of krusty on the front page. The writer talks about crashes playing out over a long period of time......and while claiming not to be pessmistic concludes;

Sharp drops in 2009

More drops, albeit smaller, in 2010

A graudal bottoming out in 2011.

Which would take affordability levels back to god knows when. good bear food.

But then talks about the inevitability of another bubble taking seed in 2015. :blink: Very optimistic And does cite 2012 [olympic year] as a recovery.....quite why the white elephant and bottomless pit of money we don't have that is the olympics should correlate with a pickup in the property market is anyones guess.

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Sorry, what about the collective wisdom of housepricecrash.co.uk? Credit where credit is due, surely.

I think it is fair to say Fred tops any individual list. He set out the exact rationale and the side effects and made the correct prognostations. The discussion of land prices on HPC has only been dissected on occasional threads analysing Freds work.

Edited to add, And it is great to finally see a decent tribute to Fred in the broadsheets, even if it is only the Indy.

Edited by Bring forth the guillotine
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The telegraph has an even better article in it's property section.......that's if you can stomach the picture of krusty on the front page. The writer talks about crashes playing out over a long period of time......and while claiming not to be pessmistic concludes;

Sharp drops in 2009

More drops, albeit smaller, in 2010

A graudal bottoming out in 2011.

Which would take affordability levels back to god knows when. good bear food.

But then talks about the inevitability of another bubble taking seed in 2015. :blink: Very optimistic And does cite 2012 [olympic year] as a recovery.....quite why the white elephant and bottomless pit of money we don't have that is the olympics should correlate with a pickup in the property market is anyones guess.

Interesting that human optimism means that when it comes to the property cycle, most people only really believe in the bottom half of the wheel. Decelerating falls in prices followed by accelerating rises.

Edited by Bring forth the guillotine
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So let me get this right the ave price of a house will go down to 3.5 of the ave yearly wage...?

I am right or wrong here?

Possibly. Maybe more, maybe less. The only thing we have is historical precedent and history has a habit of not repeating its self exactly

(apologies if my spelling of ‘its’ is incorrect – I am dyslexic so I have no idea about grammar...)

And I do like Mark Dampier - but one should remember his role in life is to sell equities so I would expect him to be bearish on property.....

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Good post...totally agree! :D

MY personal grump in all this is that, having sold my house to move to a quieter place to retire and downsize - leaving my large detached in the metropolis available for a hard-working family :rolleyes: working in that area -and am renting a place whilst looking for one to buy, my interest from the funds for my house has reduced to a quarter of what it was. :o Meaning that I will have to use capital to cover my rent, so houses will indeed have to drop a good bit further, before I can buy one that is in the same excellently maintained condition I left my other home in.

Boiling in oil is too good for Gorgo. :angry:

If you were usin the interest on your STR fund to pay your rent then you really did need nominal house prices to fall. Luckily they have.

Your formula needs to be that your STR fund falls no faster than HPI.

Let's face it, a fall in savings rates from 6% to 2% is a lot better for us savers than a change in rate from +10% pa to -18% pa for housing equity holders (and that's for the folk who own their houses outright.)

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Possibly. Maybe more, maybe less. The only thing we have is historical precedent and history has a habit of not repeating its self exactly

(apologies if my spelling of ‘its’ is incorrect – I am dyslexic so I have no idea about grammar...)

And I do like Mark Dampier - but one should remember his role in life is to sell equities so I would expect him to be bearish on property.....

Hay no problem there i am dyslexic too..

Well one thing i think we all can agree on in that prises are going to go down for some time to come, we are still way above 4.5 at the mow.....

But the bigest problem i have is that i cant buy a house intill the bank gives me the money for one, i am a first time buyer, so need prises to be low, and the bank to leand...

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....but you're not taxed twice on the same money. You're only taxed on the interest that you're paid.

You`re taxed when you earn it, you`re taxed when you spend it. Sounds like twice to me. ;)

In the case of council tax, you pay an annual tax for the privilige of owning something that you paid tax on when you bought it with earnings that were taxed.

Now that sounds like a total scam. :angry:

Surely a local income tax would be fairer..errrrrr...hang on. :rolleyes:

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It how stupid we've become that people thinking saving is the same as not spending money. What's exactly wrong with saving up to buy your bigger purchases instead of splashing out with debt? Could it be that banking parasites can't enslave us with their usurious scams? Dampler is just another **** telling people to spend like a consumerist kamikases so the system he's done so well out of can continue a while longer yet. Another crony-capitalist slimeball who want society to be destroyed to reinflate the bubble. What a ****. He'd have people starving on the streets so he could happily go on stockbroking at the casino.

Also, for those that live on savings, typically retirees, a big cut in their income will have a disasterous effect of consumer spending. Go to your local department store and sees who'd buying all those big LCD tellies with the crispest pictures, who still buys Hondas come rain come shine, books the cruises - it's grey-haired people with old-school gilt-edged pensions, long paid off detached homes bought on hubby's salary in '69 for tuppence h'penny, savings in the bank. These debt-free super consumers are a powerhouse for anyone looking to sell stuff. Forget the royally-screwed iPod generations.

The tory idea to end tax on savings for normal earners is a good one, even if its only to correct the moral wrong of being taxed twice on the same money.

I can't see where he is saying we should re-inflate the bubble?

I think he sums up the situation very well

In fact there is no way to re-inflate the bubble now

It has burst and all the Government can do now is prolong

the agony the end result will be the same

The only question now is

How much will house prices fall

and when will it bottom out

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What we really need is a thorough overhaul of the tax and benefits systems, along with a huge cutting back of the public sector – but that would take some real hard work and great political courage, and might be difficult to sell to the public. Consequently, I expect to remain angry and disenfranchised for quite some time to come.

Spot on.

However, the next post got me. Why is it people expect high interest rates? What part of lowering interest rates is it that constitutes a government failure? I too am loosing a few hundred quid a month but im not grumbling. I always thought of it as wrong, to get money for nothing simply because I already have money.

If your retiring then your on your way out, your going to have to live off of your capital one way or the other. Working people earn, none working people dont. When you retire you wither, need a stick to walk about and become hard of hearing and eventually wet yourself.

Peaople that bank on interest ates for long term income are as stupid as people that think house prices only go up. Interest rates of 5% are that, 5% more than 0. Their natural place is 0%.

Personally im hoping interest rates go up to 15%, but thats just because I want money for nothing.

Good post...totally agree! :D

MY personal grump in all this is that, having sold my house to move to a quieter place to retire and downsize - leaving my large detached in the metropolis available for a hard-working family :rolleyes: working in that area -and am renting a place whilst looking for one to buy, my interest from the funds for my house has reduced to a quarter of what it was. :o Meaning that I will have to use capital to cover my rent, so houses will indeed have to drop a good bit further, before I can buy one that is in the same excellently maintained condition I left my other home in.

Boiling in oil is too good for Gorgo. :angry:

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However, the next post got me. Why is it people expect high interest rates? What part of lowering interest rates is it that constitutes a government failure? I too am loosing a few hundred quid a month but im not grumbling. I always thought of it as wrong, to get money for nothing simply because I already have money.

If your retiring then your on your way out, your going to have to live off of your capital one way or the other. Working people earn, none working people dont. When you retire you wither, need a stick to walk about and become hard of hearing and eventually wet yourself.

Peaople that bank on interest ates for long term income are as stupid as people that think house prices only go up. Interest rates of 5% are that, 5% more than 0. Their natural place is 0%.

Personally im hoping interest rates go up to 15%, but thats just because I want money for nothing.

any time you are being paid interest on your money, you have loaned it to someone else for them to use as they see fit.

there is always a risk involved, so you HAVE to earn a little interest to just stay even.

if interest was 0% your saving would be slowed reduced to zero as the failures added up.

historically you would want to be making at least 1-2% above inflation to keep your head above water with relatively low risk saving.

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....but you're not taxed twice on the same money. You're only taxed on the interest that you're paid.

Yes but if the interest is the same as or less than the inflation on the money you are taxed to stay flat.

Interestingly one of the stealth taxes GB introduced was that for capital gains no longer allowed to take time value of money into account at taxed on increase in value even if thats due to inflation.

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