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  1. One of the numbers that comes out of the OBR that we've noted here and has given me cause to reflect on its significance is the forecast of household gross debt to income. This graph, taken from the December 2014 Economic and Fiscal Outlook, was interpreted by Jeremy Warner at the Telegraph in an article entitled "The Chancellor is banking on another house price bubble", published December 4, 2014. The OBR have now been issuing these forecasts long enough that we can start to compare how things turn out with what is forecast. The OBR make public the Excel spreadsheet that generated the charts, hence one can tinker, if so minded. Source: OBR It reminded me of this, which despite being a year old, is still doing the rounds in the twitterverse So, according to UK technocrats and policy makers, UK household debt to income levels are forever about to zoom off to the stars (and yet they never do) and at the same time the interest rates that would be payable on these enormous debts are, according to the market participants whose decisions generate the price of futures, always about to take off too (and yet they also never do).
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