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About Me

Found 43 results

  1. Hi all, If you were young and care free, and had some capital to spare. What business would you look at starting in this current London economy? Disclaimer: I might steal your idea
  2. Nothing on here so far about this? Or should this be limited to the Greater London thread. Anyway - thoughts? Perhaps ones opinion on whether caps or other form of control is a good idea aligns with ones opinion on the mayor in general
  3. https://www.metro.news/blitz-on-mcmafia-millions-inquiry-into-property-bought-with-dirty-cash/995084/ Front page today. Like the politicians haven't known all about this for years? Who are they kidding? Nothing in Osbornes Evening lack of Standards, just a one paragraph jobby acknowledging the -1.0% and a full double page spread hatchet job on Corbyn.
  4. Well ... Stoke Newington to be exact: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-72439538.html The bathroom (just):
  5. It's behind a paywall: https://www.ft.com/content/10ed0332-2d06-11e8-97ec-4bd3494d5f14 Headline summary: * Italian & French buyers' retreat from South Ken. * International buyers down from 75% to < 50% * Price down 16.8% from peak (2014) * Transaction volumes down 47% between 2013 - 2016 What can you buy for: * £1m: a two-bedroom flat just off Gloucester Rd. * £3.5m: a five-bedroom mews house on Stanhope Gardens. * £18: a five-bedroom townhouse set back from Hyde Park
  6. My first thought on reading this was what can you buy for £350k in London? Unless they’re admitting/expecting a drop in prices. The more I read at the moment, the more I think we are seeing the death throes of a property bubble. http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-5353137/UK-buyers-dibs-London-new-builds-350k.html
  7. Been lurking on this site for a very long time (almost 10 years I think) and I've found it a great source of information to explain the madness we've witnessed in the last 10 years. I've been looking at this corner of South West London, and couldn't find a thread to track it specifically - so here goes. Been renting in this area since 2010, pretty much straight after landing my first decently paid job in London. It was a relatively undiscovered part, living in the shadows of its more famous cousin (Wimbledon) though has gone absolutely mental in terms of rental and sale prices ever since the Help To Buy scheme came in. Prices have effectively doubled since about 2011 onwards in some areas and they still seem to represent some semblance of value, when you compare it to nearby Wimbledon. Have been tracking it for the last 12 months and the froth seems to blowing off finally after a period of relentless price rises. Housing stock is generally 1930s 'Blay' style housing, with 2 pockets dominating. One is what's called the Apostles - 12 parallel streets within 0.5m of the station which are filled with rows of really narrow terraced houses, that are very popular with commuters and young families (though strangely are not in the catchment areas for any schools). The other area and what we're looking in is the streets off Grand Drive, that runs for about 1 mile from the station before you hit Cannon Hill Common. Anyway, just thought I'd say hi after all this time and see if anyone else is looking in the same area or has any information. Estate agents are still in ramping mode as there's rumours of Crossrail2 coming through this area - which will no doubt take prices even higher from where they are!
  8. The words 'negative' and 'equity' have finally appeared in the ES http://www.homesandproperty.co.uk/property-news/london-firsttime-buyers-95-per-cent-mortgages-combined-with-slowing-property-prices-increase-a110941.html
  9. https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/property-prices/london/ Graphs below the map on price change and volume are interesting, although the article is not sensational.
  10. Excellent article in the Guardian on the insanity of the London's "luxury" apartment development. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/04/the-property-billboards-that-reveal-the-truth-about-britains-luxury-housing-market We are all now familiar with the stories of apartment blocks being thrown up to sell to middle and far eastern investors and this analysis really digs through the issues. I think it is important to recognise that these are not properties that were being built to meet residential demand and that foreign investors just happen to be buying them, but rather, these are developments that are taking place purely to meet the demand of foreign money. The end use is neither here nor there - some will stay mothballed as an investment and to hide assets; some may actually get let out. But the root problem is that there is not the demand for this type of housing by Londoners - the demand is something different - a wall of foreign money that is demanding a piece of the London property market and that is what it will get. Development in London has been configured to meet this demand, not the needs of its residents. A good comparison would be the developments thrown up in regional cities to meet BTL demand pre-crisis. People wanted in, but there just weren't enough of the right type of property, so they got built. Who cared if there was not the demand from people to actually live in them. Naturally this drives yields to ever lower levels, but who cares about yields these days?
  11. "London house price growth is now so slow, it has fallen to 55th place in a ranking of the 150 global cities with the fastest house price growth." Which either means it's everywhere else's turn to go coco or we're possibly witnessing the crash (albeit in very slow motion).
  12. Looks like the FT are not the only ones to this were on the edge of small corrections price corrections (10%). Hopefully, the actions match the words. I used to be a home owner in Ruislip and bought a home in 2005 for £205k I recently saw a house for sale on the same street for £650k. It was a shock to me how much a three-bedroom terraced house is going for in London, especially when the salaries have been stagnant or dropping in some cases. I almost feel that an elite is trying to remove those who grew up in an area, to make way for richer cliental from abroad. http://uk.businessinsider.com/times-survey-londons-property-bubble-will-finally-burst-in-2017-2016-12
  13. Posted this on the News blog, but as my submissions never seem to appear there, I thought I'd post it here too: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/oct/13/properties-seized-assets-corrupt-cash-crackdown-criminal-finances-bill-tax-haven We'll see how this pans out; but if it has any teeth at all, then it's yet another measure that will discourage foreign "investment" (cough). We've had a drip-drip-drip of legislation this year, all designed to discourage (in one way or another) the idea that property is simply an investment vehicle - and sooner or later, it has to bite. And while I'm ever the cynic, I increasingly feel that our new Prime Minister is one of those rare and elusive of creatures - someone with backbone and a belief in doing what's right, rather than what lines one's own pockets. We shall see, we shall see. Interesting times.
  14. Back onto house prices instead of politics or racism! List what you have seen and see if we can start a snowball rolling.....
  15. I should start the London hate thread
  16. Hi, one conundrum for you guys. London HAS or HAS NOT a property bubble ?. After reading articles from both sides for the last 2 years in the London property market, here two examples: Business Insider: These charts show how London's property bubble may burst at any moment http://www.businessinsider.com.au/hsbc-london-house-price-and-earnings-charts-2015-12 Absolutely the opposite ... Will UK Interest Rate Rises Crash House Prices? http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article51903.html This just seems unsustainable but with an increasing immigration, house shortage, help-to-buy scheme with governments borrowing a lot of money, its just doesn't really looks it can't stop. But none of us can´t afford to buy in the next 5 years with headlines saying that prices could soar 50% in the next 10 years. Thanks Roger
  17. Finding this interesting, Landsdowne auction results (London auction room today)https://www.eigroup.co.uk/onlineauctions/ Live Auction Results - 20 April 2016The auction is now complete. Please note: The results shown below are provisional and are subject to approval by the auctioneer. Lot Status Last Bid 38 Sold £205,000 33 Unsold £500,000 32 Unsold £270,000 28 Unsold 25 Unsold £243,000 24 Sold £380,000 20 Unsold £690,000 19 Sold £215,000 17 Unsold £90,000 16 Sold £1,200,000 11 Unsold £1,400,000 10 Unsold £362,000 6 Unsold £515,000 2 Sold £551,000 1 Sold £225,000
  18. I've just read Zac Goldsmith's housing manifesto. One bit particularly struck me (my emphasis): Would a three to five year tenancy be considered an AST? From my (probably poor) understanding, no it won't. Don't BTL mortgages generally insist on ASTs? I believe so. This would seem to be another nail in the coffin for debt powered BTL in London, if Zac won of course...
  19. http://www.standard.co.uk/news/london/london-named-worlds-most-expensive-city-in-which-to-live-and-work-a3192981.html? Yay. We win. Bow to my mad paint.net skillz.
  20. From http://www.idealista.com/news/inmobiliario/internacional/2016/01/25/740704-el-piso-mas-barato-de-londres-es-un-estudio-de-7-m2-que-ha-costado-111-000 [spanish] Can anyone verify this. The source is Idealista, Spain's version of rightmove. It sounds just about credible for the madness in the market, however, just becuase it has been put on the market does not mean it is going to sell.
  21. Don't think this has bee mentioned on here? Rent caps as the solution though... ignore the casue, treat the symptom...
  22. Morning all - been a while but I'm back for the second leg of HPC. RICS monthly report out today shows things getting underway in London: - new buyer enquiries down, new vendor instructions up - tenant demand down, rent expectations down And there was this gem among the comments from surveyors: "Landlords sitting on vacant, over-valued flats are looking to independent agents for advice. We anticipate an interesting year ahead."
  23. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27360032 Viva Austeriteh! Viva the London real estate asset class! Viva Boris!
  24. Going to keep a copy of this to see if this pans out as predicted. Some interesting comments too, especially about the confidence of predicting the future: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/property/11977163/Which-London-boroughs-will-see-the-biggest-house-price-rises-by-2020.html
  25. I don't see any references to this fascinating research piece from Deutsche Bank so decided to post it. http://uk.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-calls-the-top-on-londons-insane-property-bubble-2015-10?r=US&IR=T It's in a PDF here on page 29 http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-PROD/PROD0000000000368569/Konzept_Issue_06.pdf Deutsche Bank has called the top of London's runaway housing market in a blisteringly pessimistic note sent to clients on Thursday. In the bank's sixth "Konzepts" paper, Sahil Mahtani argues that a combination of rising interest rates, the Bank of England's tinkering with the market, and the increasing "politicisation of the housing issue" means London's insane price rises can't continue — and price falls could be likely. What's more, Mahtani argues there are "multiple catalysts to suggest that 2015 is the turning point" and concludes ominously: "London’s property is unlikely to enjoy the next thirty years as it did the last." The riseMahtani begins by illustrating just how spectacular the rally in London property prices has been over the last few years, with some stunning facts: Every £1 invested in London property in 1990 is now worth £5, double the performance of the FTSE 100. In the last sixty years, London house prices have only fallen 3 times: during the Volcker recession of the early-1980s; the sterling crisis of 1992; and the 2009 financial crash. Conservative estimates put average London house prices at 13 times average gross incomes. London residential mortgage debt amounts to a quarter of the country’s total. London's housing market is huge, expensive, and hot. It's not hard to find stories of property insanity in the capital and popular opinion holds that its a flood of foreign investors buying up homes and leaving them empty to accumulate value that has sparked the boom. Mahtani says it's simple supply and demand — the supply of homes has failed to keep pace with demand from buyers, be they foreign or otherwise. But crucially Mahtani sees a second, overlooked factor for spiraling prices — buyers believe house prices will keep going up. People are willing to pay silly prices on the expectation prices will keep rising and they can cash in themselves later. That in turn bids up prices. The fallBut the second cause is a worryingly self-fulfilling practice that isn't sustainable. What's more, Mahtani thinks economists are underestimating just how much perception effects prices. He points to the Hong Kong property crash of 1997, when prices dropped 40% in just over a year, as evidence for what happens when the wind changes direction on public opinion. Here's Mahtani: A shift in expectations about future supply was much more instrumental in bringing about the downturn. The post-handover government had made it known that it would welcome a decline in property prices and would increase supply by 85,000 units a year. In retrospect, at no point during the next five years did housing completions reach 35,000 annually. Yet because the decision had credibility, it changed expectations and the 85,000 figure is still cited today as a reason for the market decline. The government announcement precipitated a change in psychology that diminished the speculative increment in the market. It didn't matter that supply increased nowhere near as much as promised — the "psychology" had changed and that was enough to send buyers running. Interest rates are bound to rise soon in the UK which will take out a lot of the momentum in the property sector. But Mahtani believes something similar to Hong Kong could also happen in the UK, caused by state and Bank of England intervention. Mahtani says the Bank of England is beginning to see housing "more like a utility and less like a financial asset," because Governor Mark Carney sees mortgage lending as a key component of bank stability and the wider financial system. That makes it more likely the Bank will put in place more measures to rein in certain lending and buying practices. This will likely have an outsized impact on London because of its huge weighting in UK property debt. Here's Mahtani: The most advanced practitioners of macroprudential policy are Hong Kong and Singapore where loan-to-values for buy-to-let properties are capped at 50 per cent, foreign purchases of property are hit with 15 per cent stamp duty and second and third home buyers face differentiated, punitive treatment. In this approach, housing becomes more like a utility and less like a financial asset. The Bank of England appears to be moving in this direction. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, housing is growing issue for both the left and the right. Only 40% of today’s 25- to 34-year-olds own homes, compared with two-thirds in 1991, and Mahtani says both parties are trying to address this in a bid to win over the next generation of voters. flickr: muddyclayThe redevelopment of Battersea Power Station is one of the most high-profile residential developments in London. The Conservatives have already moved to increase stamp duty at the top of the market and cut tax benefits for buy-to-let landlords, which has taken some of the air out of the top of the market. This could be just the start. Mahtani argues that the more house prices rise out of step with earnings, the more it will "sow the seeds of its own correction" by increasing resentment and discontent amongst would-be home owners. He says: "The fate of house prices may well be decided in the political face-off between younger voters and the elderly harnessing their political power to prevent price declines to their house-cum-pensions." Ultimately, Mahtani says, we may have reached a point where "policy intervention will favour stabilising or reducing prices." The aftermathIf you're a would-be buyer, all this is great news. But for people who have recently bought it's another story. As in Hong Kong, Mahtani thinks that even if policy intervention is only meant to put a lid on things, it could end up sending prices into reverse. He says: "Again, all that needs to happen is for investors to think price outcomes are asymmetric, with low upside and large downside." In this way a self-fulfilling cycle in the opposite price direction could emerge. Homeowners would then find themselves in negative equity, freezing much of the market as people sit on their property until the price gets above water again. Another issue is interest-only mortgages. Mahtani writes: "Over a third of those with mortgages have interest-only loans, with the first sizeable wave of principal repayments due in 2017-2018." That could lead to a wave of repossessed homes, again driving prices down. Mahtani says that ultimately it's "a losing battle to call an end to the froth in this market. But perhaps we are close to the turning point." In short, either prepare for more afforadability or brace for impact because London's property market is heading for a big shake-up, according to Deutsche Bank.

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