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Labour elected 2024, ongoing HPC / house price slide plus mother of all recessions brings them down in 2025/2026? Seems possible to me look at Bori and his huge majority,,,,............................

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/generation-debt-why-first-time-buyers-wont-pay-mortgages-2062/ “Home ownership is a very British thing,” says Leon Ward, 31. “We live in a country where you’re told it’s the right thing to do.” Ward, a charity worker who recently bought a property by taking out a 35-year mortgage, is less certain. Loans taken out over longer terms like his have become an increasingly familiar sight since the financial crisis, and in particular over the last year as mortgage rates have soared. Stretching them out can ease the pressure on monthly payments, but means spending hundreds of thousands of pounds more on interest. For many young people, such mortgages represent the only way to get a foot on the housing ladder; one buyer says it allowed him to start a new life with his partner. But when it brings decades of debt and extra expense, is the dream of home ownership worth it? Chris Sykes, a mortgage broker, says longer mortgages have “definitely become more popular” among first-time buyers and homeowners remortgaging to ease monthly payments. According to think tank the Resolution Foundation, rising interest rates will swallow up another 8pc of young people’s income by the end of 2026. Not so long ago, a typical term was about 25 years; now it is between 30 and 35 years, with some as high as 40. Data from the Building Societies Association (BSA) shows that a tenth of first-time buyers – up two percentage points in a year – opt for mortgages of more than 35 years. That means someone buying a house in 2022 could be saddled with debt until 2062. More debt for longer This is a costly way of buying a home in the long run. Taking out a £350,000 mortgage at a rate of 5pc over 25 years would cost you £2,047 a month. Extending it to 35 years would save £280 a month, rising to £358 for a 40-year term. However, interest payments would set you back an extra £200,000 over 40 years compared to 25 years – equivalent to 56pc of the original mortgage. The debate over whether it’s better to buy, even if you are in debt for longer, is a fraught one. “House prices are house prices,” says the BSA’s Paul Broadhead. “You can either afford to get a mortgage and buy a house or you can’t. “Their immediate alternative would be being in the private rented sector where you’d be paying rent for a longer period than 30, 35 or 40 years. Nor have you got the security of tenure that you would have in terms of owning your own home.” Ward is relieved not to be renting, but his three-bedroom Victorian house in Cardiff brings other pressures. By his own account, the property was “dilapidated”, and renovation work running over-budget swallowed up any savings remaining from the deposit. “Some people would say I was daft to buy a house that needed a 35-year mortgage,” he admits. “Others would say it was the best thing to do because bricks and mortar always go up in price. “I’d be daft not to take it because the other option is that I could be renting and paying someone else’s mortgage. If the property price falls then I’m b-----ed, but we’ll just have to see.” Planning to overpay At just 20 years old, Jack O’Boyle is less concerned after buying a home in Rotherham, South Yorkshire. The sales executive admits his 35-year mortgage is “not perfect” but wanted to get settled with his partner as soon as possible. “We wanted to start the next bit of our lives together,” he says. Neither of them plan to let the mortgage run into the 2050s. “We’ll be paying it off sooner,” Mr O’Boyle says. “It’s everyone’s plan, I imagine, but with our current financial situation it’s going to be an option.” In some cases, longer mortgages can just be a way of getting your foot in the front door. If a better salary or bonus comes along, you can always overpay or remortgage to secure a shorter term. But as Sykes points out, this does not always turn out as planned. “The number of people that overpay is less than those that intend to,” he says. “When it comes to ‘do I go on a holiday with my bonus or do I overpay the mortgage?’ one is a bit more exciting than the other.” A longer mortgage can also push retirement further back. Sykes asks two questions when a client says they want a 40-year mortgage: “When do you plan to retire, and when can you feasibly work until?” Before getting a loan, a buyer would have to commit to working into their sixties and seventies if necessary. The young buyer’s dilemma For young people coming from university, a mortgage only piles on top of their existing mountain of debt. Around 1.5 million students leave every year with about £46,000 worth of unpaid loans each. Joe Mascari, a 23 year-old video producer, is shocked at how his life has changed in the two years since he graduated. Having once lived with a “fridge in the living room”, he now owns part of a property in Whitechapel, east London, with a colleague. There are two catches. One is that they only own about a third of the apartment. “Even when I own 35pc of the place it’s still 35pc of my place,” Mascari notes. The second is that they took out a 40-year mortgage in order to do so. “Ideally we wouldn’t want to but it was just affordability,” says Mascari. “We’ve weighed the benefits and the drawbacks, and I think we’ll still be making a profit if we sell after the five-year term of the fixed mortgage. So we’re going to take that bridge when it comes.” Longer mortgages are the only real alternative to renting, allowing young people to build up equity and create a life for themselves. But there is a price to pay – and those who cannot afford more favourable terms will be paying it into the middle of this century. Home ownership does not always mean security. “It’s a gamble, isn’t it?” says Ward, sighing. “We’ll just have to wait and see.”

The last decade and a half of searching UK housing stock for something suitable has lead me to believe that we have generally pretty poor housing stock until you get above the £500k mark. This means that I'm searching in the 'poor stock' leagues, carefully scrutinising the limited dregs that have been trickling through over the last few years. I look at properties based on what they will cost to run and maintain, especially heating systems and associated fuel costs. Given we have seen unprecedented energy price rises this year I have come to discount many more properties from my search returns based on them having become unliveable/untenable at today's energy prices. I can't be buying a home I can't afford to heat! Do you think this energy price spike will play out as a significant factor in HPC?

To all remoaners out there, if you truly want an HPC you have to agree a no deal Brexit is the best way to achieve this. Mark Carnage just had a big meeting with the press confriming that No deal = 33% discount

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/oct/29/the-looming-collapse-of-the-housing-market-bring-it-on

LMAO! http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-39485548

Although most on this forum are aware of the global issue of housing bubbles, it's always nice to have a new colourful graph to look at. Zero Hedge have just posted an interesting article looking at a comparison of leading countries HPI and HPC in some cases. It looks at how our reliance on easy credit/debt has lead to HPI that is essentially keeping economies buoyed up. As has been disccused for over a decade on hpc.co.uk it is clear that major economies are supported solely by their housing bubbles. One of the graphs seems to show several of these economies levelling off, or even starting to turn. Check the ZH article here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-03-31/our-economies-run-housing-bubbles bB

It was September last year, on a US visit and watching Trump speaking as a candidate for the first time, that it became a certainty to me that he (or at least that thing on his head) would win the race for US President 2016. Trump will win for one single reason alone: A BREXIT-like "stick it to the establishment"-attitude of the disenchanted. For those of you, who have doubts, read the following, which was written by no one less than Michael Moore: 5 Reasons Why Trump Will Win http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/ What will Trump's election do for house prices? I think the impact could be negative and massive. Trump has recently uttered statements ranging from a conditionality of the NATO treaty (depending on financial contributions) to the questioning of the US's membership with and adherence to the WTO. Other statements included threats of additional trade tariffs for countries from Mexico to China. Election of Trump will be unexpected (like BREXIT) and add great economic uncertainty to what is a pretty uncertain state of the world already. I cannot see how Britain or Europe will benefit from Trump's isolationist policies if/when he will start putting them into practice. This uncertainty and the economic fallout for export orientied industries with a focus on the US could be massive, and - no doubt - will not be a positive for house prices. As for the US, most citizens are so used to cheap tat from China - be it iPhones or the $1 shelves at Target and Walmart - that they will experience a huge wake-up call if trading with China should get rocky. Indeed, this will be an inflationary shock and not pretty, but it will be the kind of inflation that will not help asset prices.

So, this forum has dscussed on several ocasions (I can't find the threads with the new software) on how it can reach a wider audience. Some suggested facebook, some suggested twitter (I seem to recall that the user by the handlw aretheshirescrashinghas a twitter, but it's too much work for him). What about a YouTube channel? There could be a segment on current house price events. We could have livestreams, with guests, we can even do a segment on the most ridiculously priced rightmove listing. edit: can't spell for shit

Can we have a poll to see what the average user reckons about the size and scope of the HPC, how big will the drops be, and any supporting evidence.

http://money.aol.co.uk/2016/06/04/is-the-property-market-crash-finally-upon-us/

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/rogerbootle/10901558/Roger-Bootle-At-some-point-there-will-be-a-reckoning-on-house-prices.html Letting Focus View http://www.lettingfocus.com/blogs/index.php/2014/05/house-price-bubble/

Making tea. Absolute 80s on. There's a new FCA advert - Can you afford your mortgage????? There's new lending rules coming in end of this month. Don't forget about council tax etc etc etc. Makes a change after listening to countless 'Your money is safe with the FCA looking on'. http://www.fca.org.uk/consumers/financial-services-products/mortgages/mortgage-market-review 'In the past, some people were allowed to take out a mortgage they could not afford. This led to some of them falling behind with their payments or losing their home.' You don't say . . . Here's the rules: http://www.fca.org.uk/consumers/financial-services-products/mortgages/mortgage-market-review/affording-a-mortgage Christ. Nevermind whether you can afford the mortgage or not, just filling in the form will kill the market. I call Pop! end of this week, 26th April, when these rules come in.