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Lately I have been trying to find forward looking indications to judge house price movements in real life. I think I found the best one possible. Last year there was an IPO of a REIT called “Private Rental Sector REIT”. They describe themselves as: “ The Company aims to provide investors with an attractive level of income together with the prospect of income and capital growth through investment in a portfolio of newly constructed private rented properties comprising mainly family homes.” They are a build-to-rent company essentially. Their expectations are (from their last quarterly update): “target* a stabilised covered dividend of 5.5p per share and total return of 10%+ on stabilisation (based on the issue price of 100p). The Company is targeting a total dividend of 5.0p per share each year until that point, expected in 2022” Their IPO was £500m at 100p per share. Their expected portfolio looks like this in terms of location. They don’t plan to leverage much, they are currently building their portfolio and most of the areas seem to be in the north, where prices are “still going up”. Assuming they don’t get greedy with debt... I would expect their share price in the London Stock Exchange to track expected house prices. The interesting thing is evolution of their price since IPO. It seems to be in a downtrend. It’s nice because it can be checked every day and cannot be manipulated easily* as it can happen with the indices (even the Land Registry has some dodgy stuff sometimes...). Does it makes sense to you guys and girls or am I talking rubbish? *unless you pour a huge amount of money at it, at your own cost (see FOXT.L or CWD.L)