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Found 18 results

  1. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36086012 " Listening to details of when the M62 motorway is likely to be upgraded - or how the high-speed railway HS2 is progressing - may not be your idea of a scintillating weekend. But this Saturday and Sunday 500 Chinese investors will be lapping up such details in two of Hong Kong's s*****iest hotels, along with their dim sum. No longer will they be staring at artist impressions of Canary Wharf or Battersea. Instead, lured by George Osborne's promotion of the "Northern Powerhouse", Chinese investors are packing their bags and heading up the M6. " " In the process the Chinese are helping to fuel the beginnings of a property boom and push up prices, particularly in Liverpool and Manchester. Little wonder that earlier this month the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) reported that prices in London are expected to fall significantly over the next three months, while prices in the North West are expected to soar. " " 'First of all it's the Northern Powerhouse - because they've heard that much new infrastructure is coming to the North. And another thing is the railway,' she tells the BBC. " " In one recent development at Salford Quays, called the Dock Office, just half the apartments were sold to local people. A quarter went to Chinese nationals, and a further quarter went to Brits living abroad. Julie Twist, an estate agent who specialises in Manchester city centre apartments, was surprised at how much money the Chinese were prepared to spend. 'The prices were hefty on those. But £300 a square foot is nothing to them,' she says. 'It's definitely pushing up prices, because they're bringing a lot of cash over here.' " " The Chinese are not just buying Manchester. They are building it as well. The Beijing Engineering Construction Group is investing £800m in Manchester's Airport City, which will include a hub for other Chinese firms to set up. President Xi Jinping saw the site in person when he visited last year. The street names will be in Mandarin as well as English. " " But property booms, like the gold rush, are unstoppable. Mr Wills-Woodward knows of one Chinese family who sold up in London, and drove up the M6 in search of new opportunities. 'Manchester is going to become the London of the North,' he predicts. " Typical BBC journalism
  2. Zerohedge... nevertheless https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-13/violence-public-anger-erupts-china-home-prices-slide Riots
  3. "Monetary trends, meanwhile, have weakened further in early 2018, with G7 plus E7 six-month real narrow money growth falling to a nine-year low in February. Real broad money has also continued to decelerate. The emerging economic slowdown, therefore, could extend into late 2018, allowing for the usual lead." http://moneymovesmarkets.com/journal/2018/4/10/a-monetarist-perspective-on-current-equity-markets.html Monetary trends looking similar to 2007/8 for the moment. There is a clear trend. It will be interesting to see if it continues or reverses in coming months. It looks likely there will be a significant economic global economic deceleration over the next 12 months. Australia, Canada and the UK are lagging and coincidently? have the most advanced housing bubbles / private debt problems. The US, China and EU are also very weak. The Euro aggregate conceals that France and Spain are lagging whilst Germany and Italy are holding up better.
  4. Bit of bear food this fine afternoon... http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/housing-market-property-london-south-east-burst-bubble-inflation-home-owner-a7918556.html
  5. Where Dodd-Frank Didn't Go Far Enough exemption for auto lenders has led to a dangerous bubble https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-10/where-dodd-frank-didn-t-go-far-enough https://carcreditcrunch.blogspot.co.uk/2017/08/where-dodd-frank-didnt-go-far-enough.html
  6. Excellent article in the Guardian on the insanity of the London's "luxury" apartment development. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/04/the-property-billboards-that-reveal-the-truth-about-britains-luxury-housing-market We are all now familiar with the stories of apartment blocks being thrown up to sell to middle and far eastern investors and this analysis really digs through the issues. I think it is important to recognise that these are not properties that were being built to meet residential demand and that foreign investors just happen to be buying them, but rather, these are developments that are taking place purely to meet the demand of foreign money. The end use is neither here nor there - some will stay mothballed as an investment and to hide assets; some may actually get let out. But the root problem is that there is not the demand for this type of housing by Londoners - the demand is something different - a wall of foreign money that is demanding a piece of the London property market and that is what it will get. Development in London has been configured to meet this demand, not the needs of its residents. A good comparison would be the developments thrown up in regional cities to meet BTL demand pre-crisis. People wanted in, but there just weren't enough of the right type of property, so they got built. Who cared if there was not the demand from people to actually live in them. Naturally this drives yields to ever lower levels, but who cares about yields these days?
  7. Looks like the Chinese have been buying up prime London Real estate. /sarcasm http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=58676429&sale=87856050&country=england
  8. I'll look forward to this day with glee. As a future median salary earner, I hope too one day to buy my own average home, and join the nation of home owners. https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2016/10/04/uk-property-bubble-will-burst-by-2017-warns-economist/
  9. Microsoft has just announced it is paying 26 Billion USD in cash for professional social network LinkedIn. In 2015 LinkedIn generated 2.99 billion U.S. dollars in revenue with a user base of 440 million users. Shares jumped $60 on the news. In 2015 Net Income was 166 million USD giving a PE of 157 although I understand that if you are not making a stonking loss in the dot.com world you are doing something wrong. http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/lnkd/financials I'm calling top on this asset bubble although over at The Fool they claim it is more profitable than Facebook. http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/03/11/how-linkedin-earns-a-higher-gross-profit-margin-th.aspx If Microsoft really do pay "cash" the largest bill in circulation in the US is the 100 dollar. That would be the equivalent of 250 tonnes of money needing 160 SWB Transit vans to deliver it to LinkedIn's headquarters.
  10. Hi, one conundrum for you guys. London HAS or HAS NOT a property bubble ?. After reading articles from both sides for the last 2 years in the London property market, here two examples: Business Insider: These charts show how London's property bubble may burst at any moment http://www.businessinsider.com.au/hsbc-london-house-price-and-earnings-charts-2015-12 Absolutely the opposite ... Will UK Interest Rate Rises Crash House Prices? http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article51903.html This just seems unsustainable but with an increasing immigration, house shortage, help-to-buy scheme with governments borrowing a lot of money, its just doesn't really looks it can't stop. But none of us can´t afford to buy in the next 5 years with headlines saying that prices could soar 50% in the next 10 years. Thanks Roger
  11. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36181318 'Bank of mum and dad' lends £5bn a year in UK, says L&G Lending from parents to help their children get on the UK property ladder will amount to £5bn in 2016, according to data from Legal & General (L&G). L&G says it means the so-called Bank of Mum and Dad will help to finance 25% of all UK mortgage transactions this year - at an average amount of £17,500. If this lending prowess was combined into a formal business, it would be a top 10 UK mortgage lender, adds L&G. But it warns this method of lending is coming under increasing pressure. "The Bank of Mum and Dad plays a vital role in helping young people to take their early steps on to the housing ladder," said Legal and General chief executive Nigel Wilson. But he said it highlighted a number of important issues, including house prices being "out of sync with wages". Many of those accepting money from their parents are being given substantial sums. Dan Howdle, bought three-bedroom semi-detached a year ago in Rugeley in the West Midlands, thanks to £50,000 from his parents. "I wouldn't have had a chance of doing it without them, certainly for the next five years," Mr Howdle, who works for a broadband company, told the BBC. "Before this gift, I was expecting to be a renter for the rest of my life," he said. 'Supply side' In London, Mr Wilson said this funding method was reaching "tipping point", with more than half of average household net wealth (excluding property assets) going towards helping their offspring on to the housing ladder. Mr Wilson also said that not all young people were able to access parental support, while many who could were still unable to afford a home. He added: "We need to fix the housing market by revolutionising the supply side - if we build more houses, demand can be met at a sensible level and prices will stabilise relative to wages." Research from L&G and economics consultancy Cebr suggests the Bank of Mum and Dad will provide deposits for more than 300,000 mortgages, purchasing homes worth £77bn this year. The Bank of Mum and Dad's average financial contribution is £17,500 or 7% of the average purchase price, it says. Suprised to see this on the BBC. Just shows the lunancy of the problem. I wonder where house prices would be if BOM&D didn't bail their children out?
  12. Full article: http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/u-s-short-sellers-betting-on-canadian-housing-crash-an-accident-waiting-to-happen
  13. I don't know how it is in your areas, but every few weeks I click on Rightmove sold house prices for my area (E8, E9 and E5), and bar a few sales am not really seeing much actually appearing near the crazy asking prices published? Of course there is a delay of a few months, but still.... For example, note this house with north facing garden for £1.5million: http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-32141598.html Yet the highest sale I can find for the street is £1,015,000. http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detail.html?country=england&locationIdentifier=OUTCODE%5E762&searchLocation=E8&referrer=listChangeCriteria&index=25 I was told by an agent that something in the street went for over 1.2million, but wonder if these sales will be stopped by surveyor valuations as had heard from one agent that surveyors have been told to "calm it down"?! Curious to know if this is the picture across London, and generally how many months out is the land registry sold prices index? Also, I can imagine in EA offices they must be panicking now to close the sales at the bubble prices. There have certainly been a few properties return to market. I just hope more of these sales at the silly prices fall through and sellers get a bit more real about what they can ask. Even if you add on 20% to 2013 sold prices, you don't quite get to the current asking prices for most property (specifically houses, not flats).
  14. And, if so, what's next? I'm seeing a lot less reporting of frenzied sealed bids and a lot more of this sort of thing: http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/calling-top-market-say-london-agents/ Is this what people are seeing on the ground? If not, which areas still are showing signs of panic?
  15. Today's quotes from the bank on Sky ("We could limit amounts of certain types of mortgages that banks could undertake, we could provide advice. The chancellor has asked us if we would provide advice on changing the terms of Help to Buy.") and the government on the BBC ("I think if he says that we need to pare back on some of the government schemes like Help to Buy, then I think we should do so.") suggest conscious signalling that some kind of intervention is afoot . If scaling back support for the market is announced, I see two things as inevitable: (1) rapid retreat by the smart money as the market is spooked that this is just the start of it and (2) a MIRAS-style last hurrah as the not-so-smart money rushes to borrow to the hilt before the restrictions come in. Suddenly demand falls off a cliff and we know what comes after that. What's the alternative that I can't see, that following meteoric rises engineers a miraculous soft landing with, happily ever after, house prices ambling along in step with wages? Wouldn't the people in charge better serve their own interests by sitting back, letting the bubble become even bigger before bursting and then blaming everyone else?
  16. Now that's what I call a bit of a spike! http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=bubble&geo=GB&gprop=news&cmpt=q
  17. Using the publicly available land registry data set imported into a database, I've written a query to extract the top flippers nationwide from the start of 2013 to the end of the current data range (Feb 2014). That is, repeat sales since Jan 2013 that have made a profit, ranked by profit. The overall numbers are 4086 repeat sales made a profit, 467 made a loss, 208 even.
  18. Two of our favourite pundits (Boulger and Bien) discussing MMR this lunchtime (http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b041469n) Can't help wondering if Melanie forgot her lines when Paul Lewis turned the topic to house prices (at 10 mins 20 sec). Went something like this: PL: House prices: Is there a bubble as we've heard this week? MB: We- well I'm not convinced ... I mean the market is crazy in places like London... PL: That sounds like a bubble to me MB: Well, but ... b ... it's ... they're very abnormal ... um ... the ... er ... situation. You've got very few transactions which are pushing up prices but it's not widespread across the country and indeed prices are ... sort of ... the growth at the top end of the market is now tailing off so I'm not convinced. ------ The most telling thing for me is she didn't just say "No there is not a bubble".
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